DAQMAN CENTRE STAGE WITH STAR: Daqman named winner and third in the Autumn Gold Cup at Cheltenham yesterday and goes 2-0 up on Pricewise as they line up for Day 3 at the big meeting today.
WON 4-1 STAGE STAR (Autumn Gold Cup)
3RD 12-1 IL RIDOTO (w/p same race)
WON 9-4 BURDETT ROAD
50.0 OFFER TO PLACE IN TROYTOWN: Gordon Elliottt fields 15 out of the 22 declared for the Troytown Chase which, says Daqman, has hidden one of his offered at 50.0 on this morning. They’re all outsiders barring his 8.6 second favourite this morning, says our man.
MALINA CROMWELL MAGIC AGAIN
⭕ 2.20 Cheltenham (3m 3.5f handicap chase): LAYS LOGIC: No outright favourite has won this in the decade. We had a lesson yesterday in following a winner at Carlisle: Good Risk At All was flat-footed over the Cheltenham fences; didn’t bend his back and lost any chance of rhythm.
Guetapan Collonges won at Carlisle but has more experience, has done well at other country tracks, but was a beaten favourite in the Midlands Grand National and is 10lb higher than for his last success.
City Chief has won – and lost – several small-field races and are you really going to back him on potential off 12st in a 3m 4f chase here? In fact, there’s been no winner of this in the decade under the age of seven.
It seems odd that City Chief should have the same 142 mark as Cloudy Glen, who has scored first time out twice in November, winning the Newbury Trophy (3m 2f) off a similar mark.
First Lord De Cuet was fourth in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial; otherwise his 22222 form is uninspiring.
Joe Tizzard won with Triple Trade here Friday and his near-25% strike rate boosts the chances of Rose Of Arcadia, winner on heavy as a chaser and a hurdler.
She was third in the Mares Final at the April meeting here, trying to give 17lb and 14lb to the first two. Her mark gives her a good chance in today’s race on soft ground.
Malina Girl is only six but very experienced and won the Ulster National on soft in April for Gavin Cromwell, who has already had a big-odds winner at Cheltenham this week.
The same stable runs Peaches And Cream, fourth in the Troytown two years ago and winner of a top chase (3m 7f) at the Punchestown festival in the Spring on good going.
Captain Cattistock won here (3m 2f) in April but his best form is all on good ground. Bangers And Cash has won second time out for the last two seasons.
Slipway has won both the Southern National and the Highland National but is high in the weights for it and this is different class.
Truckers Lodge will love the ground but has needed a first run back and is generally a Spring horse.
Betdaq Betting Exchange9.2 Rose Of Arcadia, 10 Cloudy Glen, 11 Malina Girl
DIOL 50 FOR BETDAQ PHONE BET
⭕ 2.30 Navan (Troytown Chase): Follow the winner of this? No way; there have been some real let-downs and the last three to score have failed to win another race from 28 starts!
Gordon Elliott, who has won five of the last nine Troytowns, gives himself FIFTEEN chances today in the 22-runner field, including the 2021 winner, Run Wild Fred.
Hidden among the Longwood mob is Diol Ker, who just failed to win the big Christmas Chase at Leopardstown last year; Ain’t That A Shame was fourth after his head defeat in the Munster National by a winner of today’s race, The Big Dog.
Diol Ker also ran well in the Cork Grand National the last day, so was overpriced at 50.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Hollow Games was a closing third to stablemate Ash Tree Meadow in the Galway Plate, and won here at Navan first run back last season.
Gevrey is penalised 8lb in a better race for winning the Munster National from Largy Debut (6lb better off) and Coko Beach, who was fourth in the Troytown last November.
Limerick Lace and Thedevilscoachman are novices who could improve but my win preference is for Hollow Games (cheekpieces first time).
BETDAQ value 8.6 Hollow Games, 50.0 Diol Ker
EDWARDSTONE STAMINA NEEDED
⭕ 2.55 Cheltenham (Shloer Chase) A good guide to the future, despite small fields, because the best of the best win it.
Uxizandre (2014 winner) went on to score in the Ryanair Chase at the festival; Sprinter Sacre (2016) won the Queen Mother Champion Chase: Fox Norton (2016) was second in the Champion Chase; Defi Du Seuil (2019) completed a hat-trick, adding the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House to this. Put The Kettle On (2020) won the Champion Chase.
Fox Norton (2016-17) won the Schloer two years running, and Nube Negra (2021-22) goes for a hat-trick in the race this afternoon, after winning this twice on good ground.
Nube Negra’s form is 101111 when returning fresh in the autumn; Edwardstone, winner of the Tingle Creek first run back last year, is 1001; but Editeur du Gite usually needs a run.
All three are nine years old, an age group which has a poor record; only Uxizandre in the decade was nine.
That leaves Jonbon. He is 11211 after a break: beaten in the Arkle on soft ground but won his first race against seniors in April, the Celebration Chase at Sandown.
The ratings say he has closed down Edwardstone to within a pound in the ratings, 167-166, the other two behind by a few pounds. Jonbon could be outstayed here but will be a different proposition on better ground in the Tingle Creek.
HENDERSON PAIR A GREAT PICK
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle): LAYS LOGIC: Not a single favourite has scored since Detroit City in 2006 but only two of the 16 winners since have been rank outsiders over 12-1 at SP.
It’s only a matter of time before another favourite does win but do you want to risk Onlyamatteroftime just because he’s trained by Willie Mullins?
In fact, it’s his debut for Closutton today. With Niall Madden, he never passed the post first, his bumper win coming in the stewards’ room after interference, and he’s been a beaten favourite in his two hurdles, a maiden at Rosscommon (10-lengths third) and an open handicap at Cork, when ducking left and running out.
It was good ground when I Like To Move It scored off 12st last season, and previous results suggest you look a stone and more lower in the handicap.
In today’s field, Iberico Lord (Nicky Henderson) and Lookaway step up from novice company, which West Cork (2021) did well enough and Harambe did in 2019, North Hill Harvey in 2016 and Garde La Victoire in 2014. An excellent recent record.
Luccia (another Henderson), fourth in the Dawn Run at the festival in March (soft), made her senior debut in a Listed, her first run back two weeks ago.
She has 10lb more than stablemate Iberico Lord (seemingly Nico de Boinville’s choice) but has the Mares Hurdle as her target in March.
L’Eau Du Sud, who has been absent 260 days, won over further on very soft ground at Auteuil; he’s had a wind op since he blew up, third, at Kempton.
The more rain the better for Welsh Champion Hurdle winner, Nemean Lion (Anyharminasking second), who had the Fighting Fifth as an alternative to this.
BETDAQ value 8.7 Luccia, 11 Iberico Lord
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Cheltenham (x 2 bulls’-eye bets to win 50, win 20)
BET 6pts win ROSE OF ARCADIA
BET 5pts win MALINA GIRL
BET 2pts win CLOUDY GLEN
2.30 Navan (bull’s-eye bet to win 50, win 20)
BET 1pt win and place DIOL KER
BET 2.6pts win HOLLOW GAMES
2.55 Cheltenham (win 20, nap)
BET 6pts win EDWARDSTONE
3.30 Cheltenham (win 20 each)
BET 2.6pts win LUCCIA
BET 2pt win IBERICO LORD
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