9-1 FOR TIPPING LEGEND DAQMAN: Again and again, Daqman finds a big-odds winner somewhere on a day of top-class racing. On Saturday, he followed up 12-1 (twice) and 17-2 hits among his Cheltenham Festival haul of 14 returns with Lost Legend (WON 9-1) in the BETDAQ Silver Bowl at Kempton.
FOUR WINNING DAYS OUT OF FIVE: He was within a short-head of a 149-1 Betdaq-race double when his selection, win-and-place Marcilhac (2nd 14-1), was beaten in the shadow of the post in the BETDAQ Silver Plate. Added to his Cheltenham score, that gave Daqman four winning days out of the last five.
WINNERS PATTERN SUGGESTS IT’S A WAIT-AND-SEE WINTER DERBY
Flat punters are straining in the slips. But there are graphic reasons to avoid Saturday’s Winter Derby market until there’s a better knowledge of what will run. After the wet winter, few horses will be ready for the fray.
Half a dozen well fancied in the list of 37 probables have been out of action between 122 and 208 days and some others in the front rank of the betting – Captain Cat, Graphic, Solar Deity and Windhoek – simply don’t have the class.
The field had been running at 12, 13 (three times) and 14 in the last six years until it slumped to nine starters last season, and a combination of factors could see it in single figures again, not least that handicappers have less and less chance of winning it.
Such as Chookie Royale and Captain Cat, both with decent AW form this winter, now fall between two race-planning stools. If they run in the Lincoln – only a class 2 handicap – on March 29, they will have to carry 9st 7lb and 8st 13lb respectively.
If they run in the Group-3 Winter Derby, they must meet Pattern-winning horses at level weights, yes successful Group and Listed animals who give these handicappers little or no chance in the race.
The facts laid out in the form of the last six Winter Derby winners suggest that you must wait and see which of the quality horses run. The last six were:
Farraaj (had won Listed, placed Groups 1 and 3), Premio Loco (winner and second Group 2), Nideeb (won two Listeds), Tranquil Tiger (won six Listeds), Scintillo (won one Listed in UK and one Group 1 in Italy), Hattan (won one Listed in UK, second in three Group 1s and one Group 3).
Farraaj’s Winter Derby win last year came at the expense of Robin Hoods Bay (second), with Tinshu fourth and the 2012 winner, Premio Loco, fifth. The quartet are back for more, so, too, 2012 third, Circumvent. Otherwise look out specifically for:
Chil The Kite (won Listed, second and third Group 2 and third Group 3); Gatewood (winner and two thirds Group 3, second Group 2); Grandeur (second Grade 1, won Grade 2 and second Group 2, third Group 3, won Listed twice).
Highland Knight (first and second Group 2, first, second and third Group 3, won Listed), Mull of Killough (Group 2 second, Group 3 winner twice, one Listed), Parish Hall (Group 1 winner, Group 2 second; Group 3 winner, second and two thirds; one Listed).
BETDAQ offers in the orange will be in the range of two or three points either side of 106% whereas, even for last year’s nine-runner result, the bookies totted up 116% Total SP. With 13 runners in 2012, they bet 126% at the ‘off’.
A DELIGHT TO BET AT LIMERICK: BANKER ON THE CARDS
It’s a battle of the babes at Limerick. If you shed a few tears at Cheltenham, prepare for yet more soulful memories of jumping’s great arena as Byerley Babe and Baby Shine battle for the novices’ Grade-2 mares’ chase, named after the fabulous Dawn Run (3.40), winner of both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup.
Dawn Run was the tear-jerker of them all at the festival as she added chasing’s top accolade to her hurdles crown, emotion on a par with Red Rum’s third National. Strong men wept, as Alice Treedown would say.
It’s England v Ireland all over again: Byerley Babe, who pipped Une Artiste a head at Thurles before that one ran eighth to Don Poli in the Martin Pipe, versus Baby Shine, who had a long-range rear view of RSA winner O’Faolain’s Boy in the Reynoldstown.
Collateral form points to Byerley Babe, since Baby Shine was beaten two-and-a-half lengths by Une Artiste at Huntingdon in December, but today’s weights swing the pendulum back in favour of Lucy Wadham’s raider, Baby Shine.
All seems to depend on their aptitude on the ground and the form of the yard: Robert Tyner (Byerley Babe) is currently four from eight, whereas Lucy Wadham is missing strike with seven in the frame without winning out of 10 still standing in the last fortnight.
Sean O’Brien will disagree that it’s a two-horse race, since his Caoimhe’s Delight was less than two lengths behind Byerley babe and Une Artiste at Thurles, finishing her race as though today’s two furlongs would be ideal.
Liz’s D’Estruval and Backinthere were both behind her when she was then the ‘moral’, giving 10lb, but beaten little more than a length by Lisrose at Thurles, stepped up to 3m last month.
Caoimie’s Delight seems to have all the form angles yet is 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning, as I write. Maybe her bridesmaid form figures are putting punters off but her price is the value for her first time at the trip.
Urticaire (2.40) beat Katie T at Navan yet is now better off at the weights, and punters gets a strong word of encouragement from Willie Mullins
Robert Tyner should gain compensation if Byerley Babe is beaten from the stable’s knocking bet, Knock Beauty (5.05 Navan).
And I will try some recouping, too. Wrong Turn (4.35) clearly didn’t give his running at Cheltenham when I tipped him, and is 11lb lower here: the 7.6 on BETDAQ looks tasty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) URTICAIRE (2.40 Limerick)
BET 4pts win CAOIMHE’S DELIGHT (3.40 Limerick)
BET 3pts win WRONG TURN (4.35 Navan)
BET 10pts win KNOCK BEAUTY (5.05 Navan)
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