VALUE VERDICT ON MAGIC MILE: Top milers of three generations do battle in France today, with last year’s winner of the Prix Jacques Le Marois trying to fend off a 2015 triple Group-1 winner and the winner and third in the 2,000 Guineas from this season’s Classic crop, Read Daqman’s value verdict.
GET HOT YORKSHIRE PUDDING: Daqman finds three southern trainers on solo missions to Pontefract, currently with great strike rates and runners at backable prices in offers on BETDAQ. So France is the Sunday main course but Yorkshire has the pudding.
ERVEDYA THE VALUE BACK IN TOP FORM
Who are Racing Post feature writers? Answer: 50 people who put bigger and bigger pictures of themselves in the paper.
Are they on a bonus? How else to explain the sudden surge of Sunday interview copy. Sunday racing is usually devoid of trainer previews because the ‘hacks’ are all having Saturday off. Some might even go racing.
Here is my version of the big race in France, followed by a potted summary of the Post interviews, duly attributed to one Scott Burton (who he?)..
Ah, so do we assume the whole thing is down to the Saturday-night watchman?
We’ll call him the Younis Khan of Canada Square. What an innings? His elastic-wrist action reminded me of the greatest I ever saw, Gary Sobers, a big mate of Michael Stoute’s; both actually deserving of their knighthoods in those post-Wislon, pre-Cameron days.
2.55 Deauville (Prix Jacques Le Marois) Ribchester closed down Galileo Gold from three-and-a-half lengths in the Guineas to a short-head when they were placed in the Sussex Stakes.
As so often this season, when we’ve struggled with collateral three-year-olds form, we can suppose that the gap has narrowed because of the going, between soft at Newmarket and firm at Goodwood. Or that it could be imporovement in Ribchester. Or both.
The handicapper certainly deems Ribchester the improver; while Galileo Gold has hovered around 120-122, Ribchester has climbed from 113 to 121 in the same period of time.
Another change of circumstances today could push Ribchester past his old rival at the third time of asking: the draw has Ribchester in 2 and Galileo Gold in 10.
Such superb champions as Goldikova and Moonlight Cloud plus Excelebration, the horse that dogged Frankel, have found no problem with an outside draw but the seven other results in the decade all went to horses in gates 1 to 6.
In a very close match, which seems to be the case between Galileo Gold and Ribchester, it could mean a vital length or even a decisive half.
Vadamos is comfortably a Group-2 horse, but beat the Group-1 filly Ervedya on good ground at Saint-Cloud and could come into it.
Another English raider, Arod, Sussex Stakes runner-up last season, has first-time cheekpieces adding an extra pound or two.
TRAINERS: Andre Fabre is ‘delighted with Vadamos; last year’s winner Esoterique is on the upgrade.’ Jean-Claude Rouget says Ervedya ‘has been in really top form at Deauville.’
‘A strongly run race would be to Galileo Gold’s advantage and possibly not to Ribchester’s (Hugo Palmer). ‘We always thought Ribchester was a proper Group-1 horse. Now the aim is to win one’ (Richard Fahey).
STATS: It’s 50-50 this century; eight wins to three-year-olds, eight to older horses. It’s also six to Andre Fabre in 29 seasons; six to England.
VERDICT: But Jean-Claude Rouget is the new king of France and his Group-1 winner at this trip three times last season, Ervedya, has had a very light campaign in 2016, and is now back to form on the gallops
She was not ready when beaten by Vadamos in May, and not right when she flopped at Royal Ascot.
Though I think Ribchester might have the edge this time, there’s not much value in choosing between the front two in the market and, with Ervedya, I can probably get for a place what Ribchester and Galileo Gold are for a win.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Ribchester 1, Ervedya 2, Galileo Gold. BET: Ervedya (9.8 offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning), win and place.
TIP THE BOTTLE WITH LA RIOJA (NAP)
2.45 Pontefract The royal runner Mainstream (4.4 on BETDAQ) for Sir Michael Stoute, who is 50% (6-12) in races of this nature at Pontefract and is currently top of the Racing Post Trainerspot column for getting 87% out of his horses.
3.45 Pontefract On York form, La Rioja (3.5 offers) should turn around the placings with Ridge Ranger, who earlier beat Priceless and has twice stopped Imtiyaaz.
La Rioja’s trainer, Henry Candy, has a 38% strike rate at Pontefract, and is the second of three southern trainers that I think will make solo trips pay off on the Yorkshire track today.
4.50 Pontefract Russian Finale (3.78 favourite as I write) ran well on the debut over today’s CD and makes a return journey for this, with William Haggas 28% on this track and currently striking at 32% overall.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 6pts win MAINSTREAM (2.45 Pontefract)
BET 2.2pts win and place ERVEDYA (2.55 Deauville)
BET 8pts win (nap) LA RIOJA (3.45 Ponefract)
BET 7pts win RUSSIAN FINALE (4.50 Pontefract)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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