10-3 SATURDAY NAP FOR DAQMAN: Gabrial (WON 10-3) was an impressive winning Saturday-jackpot nap for Daqman yesterday and he correctly forecast a 14-1 coincidence double when another selection within the hour, Lily’s Angel (WON 5-2), also scored.
53 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Since Gabrial was a jackpot bet as well as a nap, the stakes were raised and the proceeds from his two winners produced a profit of 28.35 to add to Friday’s 25.30 from three winners for more than 53 points in two days.
CLASSIC-TRIAL SEASON STARTS TODAY: The start of the Classic-trial season in Ireland, a tearaway back-and-lay bet over jumps at Market Rasen and a nap at Wincanton whose main rival has been hit by the handicapper. That’s how Daqman sees the day.
2.35 Leopardstown (2,000 Guineas Trial) Reduced to the bottom of the pattern pile, now a Listed not a Group race, this produced Refuse To Bend in 2003 (Newmarket 2,000 Guineas), its last making of a star.
It’s a cautionary note for your future assessment of his second-season animals that Dermot Weld, who trained Refuse To Bend and also won it with Famous Name, thinks he has nothing worth leaving in the race today.
It features one of Ballydoyle’s supposed Epsom Derby contenders, The United States, but the fitting of cheekpieces to a colt described by his trainer as ‘lazy’ suggests that he is more in the mould of O’Brien’s last-season winner of this, Furner’s Green, than of his sire, Galileo.
Gentleman Jim Bolger has made a fantastic start and Chesham fourth Move To Strike (5.2 on BETDAQ this morning) is sure to be ready. The son of a French Derby winner has bags of stamina on the dam’s side, so no wonder he will take the Dante route to the Derby.
I don’t want to be backing trial horses under 4-1: one old mentor of mine, used to say of the factors against: ‘one point to be ready, one to have trained on, one for the opposition and one for the road.. so I don’t care who trains it, you need 4-1.’
2.40 Longchamp (Prix De La Grotte) This one sorts the gold from the grot! It almost always produces heroines of their generation, notably in recent years the unbeaten superstar Zarkava in 2008.
The last two winners, Beauty Parlour and Golden Lilac, both followed up in the French 1,000 Guineas. Trust my luck, I went for the 2010 winner, Anna Salai, big time for the Irish 1,000 at The Curragh: she was beaten a head as a supplementary entry!
This year? Andre Fabre, with seven winners – and his last nine starters in the frame – in the last fortnight saddles the unbeaten Tasaday, ridden by Maxime Guyon, runner-up for the French jockeys’ title three years running.
Fabre will want to topple Topaz Blanche, the head second in Carlos Laffon-Parias’ one-two in the Grand Criterium for fillies at the Arc meeting last October.
The fourth filly home that day at Longchamp was Flotilla, who would go on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile, so the grey-roan Tasaday will have to be a diamond if she is to deny Topaz.
3.40 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) Retains its Group-3 status, despite being only 7f, and Ballydoyle has won it recently as the stepping-stone to the Newmarket 1,000 success of Homecoming Queen (2012) and Virginia Waters (2005), but punters also backed the stable’s flops in this, Fame and Psalm, both SP favourites.
O’Brien’s runner today, Snow Queen, was easy to back at 3.7 on BETDAQ this morning, closely followed by What Style (John Oxx) and Hint Of A Tint (David Wachman). This trio, along with Bunairgead, are the only Classic entries.
Snow Queen and What Style are ‘the same horse’ based on their one-two last August but that was on very soft ground and that was last season, this is this season, a mighty difference for developing horses. Only the race will tell us what to expect from them.
4.15 Leopardstown (Ballysax Stakes) Clash of the titans today: Jim Bolger has won three of these in a row; Aidan O’Brien three in 10 years.
Bolger’s winners could manage only third in the Irish Derby plus a Ribblesdale winner.
O’Brien’s recent successes have included Fame And Glory (winner of the Irish Derby) and the developing stayer Yeats (2004) but the Ballysax is famous for the launch of High Chaparral and Galileo.
It could be the most informative trial of all today, apart from the Grotte, if the Beresford Stakes winner, Battle Of Marengo, puts daylight between himself and the rest of this field.
As ever, O’Brien voices a non-committal ‘he’s ready to start’. He may well be, but I am not ready to start taking odds on about three-year-olds whoever they may be.
Officially Sugar Boy can beat Battle Of Marengo: he’s rated 3lb lower yet receives 5lb, and I’ve got my 4-1 (in fact, 5.3 on BETDAQ this morning). But, remember, last year is last year, this year is this, as far as three-year-olds are concerned.
JUMPS Alan Swinbank, striking generally at 53%, and with a 43% hit rate at Market Rasen, has one runner there today, Bob’s Lady Tara (5.10), a 7.2 offer on BETDAQ for the bumper at the time of writing.
What is Halucha doing out at 10.5 in 3.35? This is his ideal track and ground and, whether he’ll hang on in there or not (the trip says he will), he is a perfect back-and-lay tearaway front-runner, sure to be shorter in running.
Bumper-king Nicky Henderson (53% at Ffos Las) has Bringithomeminty (5.30) backable there today because McCoy is on the principal opposition. Shadow David Minton and see if he has a bet!
Purely speculative is a pound win and place Tregony Bridge (23.0 as I write for the 3.10 Wincanton), getting a stone from everything else, making his handicap debut on his first appearance for the resurgent stable of Kevin Bishop (currently 3-7).
Jump City (4.20) is napped as a freegoing sort suited to the track and speedy enough for the drop back in trip. His main rival, Rody, is up 23lb since he won on the course a grade lower in December.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.7pts win MOVE TO STRIKE (2.35 Leopardstown)
BET 0.9pts win and place TREGONY BRIDGE (3.10 Wincanton)
BET 2.1pts win and place HALUCHA (3.35 Market Rasen)
BET 4.6pts win SUGAR BOY (4.15 Leopardstown)
BET 13pts win (nap) JUMP CITY (4.20 Wincanton)
BET 3.2pts win BOB’S LADY TARA (5.10 Market Rasen)
BET 10pts win BRINGITHOMEMINTY (5.30 Ffos Las)
Daqman’s bets are all backed to win 20 points today
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