ARC LIGHT A SUPER 16.0 ON BETDAQ: As Longchamp gets softer, Daqman looks for a leading stayer in the Arc. Leading Light, it is. But he greatly fears Treve, despite her bad draw. Weaving through the field will suit her, he says.
STAY WITH IT AS DAQMAN NAPS ALTANO: Daqman hopes for a big-price nap later on in the stamina-sapping Prix du Cadran, with Altano some compensation for connections of the absentee Arc favourite, Novellist.
162 POINTS UP BUT IT’S THE FINAL DAY: The plan to land 200 points in 12 days by the end of the weekend slipped – back to 162 points – yesterday, despite three returns including success with Top-Notch Tonto (WON 5-1) and an outsider placed, Petit Chevalier (3rd 20-1).
12.45 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp) English sprinters have won nine of the last 12 but the French had a great champion in 2008.
The winner that day, Marchand d’Or, was the only horse to beat the current draw bias. Surrounding his success from the 20 gate, stalls 8, 3, 1, 9 and 6 have won in five of the last six years, and in those five seasons none with a double-figure draw could finish in the first two.
Three-year-olds have won only three times in 20 years but Dutch Masterpiece is progressive, loves the mud, is well drawn and has Ryan Moore to do the steering for his dad. Blinkered first time.
Maarek (gets behind) and Mirza have both won Group-3 sprints on the soft recently, Mirza’s over course and distance when Dibajj forced a dead-heat on the line, just in front of Catcall, who had a string of these behind when runner-up to Spirit Quartz at Chantilly.
Nunthorpe winner Jwala has the draw in what is her last race before going to paddocks, but we just don’t know how she will act on the ground.
Half a dozen of these are within a length or so of each other, but Catcall, Dibajj and Dutch Masterpiece have all three had only nine races each, so should be open to bags of improvement.
My first choice is Dibajj, twice a winner over 7f. Will love the fast pace and 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning is clearly wrong.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1 Dibajj, 2 Jwala, 3 Dutch Masterpiece, 4 Catcall
1.20 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac Criterium Des Pouliches) This two-year-old fillies’ title has gone to English and Irish champions Finsceal Beo, Misty For Me and Elusive Kate in the last seven years but the 2007 French scorer, Zarkava, would be a future Arc winner.
Veda (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) has the same connections as Zarkava and beat the highly-regarded Andre Fabre filly Delivery – pair clear – in her maiden over course and distance on the soft. It may be significant that champion-trainer Fabre declines to challenge for today’s prize.
Royalmania is unbeaten, so too the only Group winner I the race so far, Lesstalk In Paris. Albany Stakes runner-up Sandiva won a Group 3 at Deauville but the ground is a worry, as it is for May Hill runner-up, Majkeyda.
Five of the last six winners have been drawn in the low-four stalls and I shall have a bit each way on Wonderfully. He’s raced on firmish ground so far but Ballydoyle’s Galileos often perform well on the soft and 14.5 was big this morning for an O’Brien runner.
DAQMAN’S ONE-TWO: 1 Veda, 2 Wonderfully
1.55 Longchamp (Jean-Luc Lagardere Criterium Des Poulains) This two-year-old colts’ championship is, surprisingly, a furlong shorter than the fillies’ criterium. Why? Don’t ask, monsieur (remember, the French run their Derby over 1m 2f).
Winners at the trip already are seven out of 10; those drawn 1 to 3 are six out of 10. Karakontie fits both requirements, has won on very soft ground and, with Charm Spieit, is a course-and-distance winner.
English (Listed second Barley Mow), Irish (Wilshire Boulevard, the Gimcrack runner-up) and Spanish (Noozhoh Canarias) make this an international field but below Group 1 standard.
DAQMAN’S ONE-TWO: 1 Karakontie, 2 Wilshire Boulevard
2.30 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Eight out of 10 winners were drawn seven or lower; seven were three-year-olds; seven distance winners.
Treve fans will be watching closely: Tasaday and Silasol, who have beaten each other this term, have both had a rear view of Treve in French Oaks and the Vermeille. Silasol is best at today’s trip.
The ground is right for Secret Gesture but she takes her time to get going and it’s hard to see where any pace is coming from. Maybe Dalkala will have to lead.
Sarkiyla has done most of her racing at a mile but, held up to get the trip, she finished fast in the Group-1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August, and finished in front of Dalkala.
DAQMAN’S ONE-TWO: 1 Silasol, 2 Sarkiyla
3.15 Longchamp DAQMAN’S ARC-DE-TRIOMPHE ORDER IN
1 Leading Light Very versatile late entry, unbeaten from firm to heavy since his debut and with French mandarin of jockeys Gerald Mosse up. Winner at 10f twice, Royal Ascot at 2m, then in St Leger. Super 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning but solid 10-1 with Ladbrokes.
2 Treve Just four races – four leaps forward – taking the French Oaks (from the Irish Oaks winner) and Prix Vermeille, weaving through with superb gear change. Tall order from stall 15 but suits her style.
3 Orfevre Swerved away victory from the worst possible draw on heavy ground last year. Nice sit from stall 8 this time and back to form in scintillating style in the Prix Foy trial. But he’s five and kinky.
4 Kizuna Japan Derby winner scrambled home in the Prix Niel in slow time but that was his first run for 112 days and his first on soft ground. Horses beaten on Arc-trials day rarely reverse the placings.
5 Ruler Of The World Seemed part of the burst bubble of Epsom Derby form but his Irish Derby flop is now put down to the firm ground and unlucky when just pipped in Prix Niel over CD on soft.
6 Intello Andre Fabre, heading for a 25th French trainers’ title, and Olivier Peslier, seeking a fifth Arc, team up with Intello, well drawn but yet to prove himself at the trip, as French Derby (10f+) winner.
7 Flintshire Andre Fabre – seven Arc winners – and his current star rider, Maxime Guyon, won the Grand Prix over today’s course and distance with Flintshire but only fourth in the Niel trial on soft.
8 Al Kazeem Five out of five going righthanded. Kept mosly to 10f and won the Eclipse. Stable happy with the trip and ground but drawn 18, widest of all, which probably cost Orfevre victory last year
9 Ocovango Within two-and-a-half lengths successively of Ruler Of The World, Flintshire, then Kizuna (narrow third). Lacks turn of foot.
10 Meandre Grand Prix De Paris winner and Niel second two years ago. Good form in Germany in September, close up third to Novellist.
11 Very Nice Name Sheema Classic third, Grand Prix De Deauville fourth, chased home Orfevre in the Foy. Traffic problems from stall 1.
12 Joshua Tree Canadian International winner on good ground a year ago. Not strike form again until recent close second at Deauville.
13 Haya Landa After head defeat in Chantilly Grand Prix, third in the grade higher Saint-cloud version but only sixth in the Prix Foy trial.
14 Penglai Pavilion Yet another Fabre runner. Beaten only a head in the Grand Prix De Deauville but deserted by Maxime Guyon today.
15 Pirika Three-time winner for latest Fabre jockey find Pierre-Charles Boudot. Good draw but left standing by Orfevre in the Foy.
16 Going Somewhere Just behind Pirika in the Foy. Lightly raced.
17 Sahawar Sprint-bred, from the French provinces. Poor draw.
4.40 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret) Keep your cursor on the move. There’s a fabulous contest here between the magical Moonlight Cloud, and the Irish pair, rapid improver Viztoria, and last year’s winner Gordon Lord Byron.
Missing from the line-up is Maxios, who slammed Olympic Glory, Anodin and F ench Guineas winner, Style Vendome in the Prix du Moulin last month. He waits for British Champions day at Ascot.
Moonlight Cloud could beat Olympic Glory only a short head at Deauville in August, so Anodin is a big price at offers on BETDAQ of 26.0 this morning.
Earlier in the month, she Moonlight Cloud also impressively beat Gordon Lord Byron (holds Garswood on Haydock Sprint Cup form). Viztoria (9.8 as I write) has raced only six times in her life and looked a filly with a future when she scored at Doncaster.
DAQMAN’S ONE-TWO: 1 Moonlight Cloud, 2 Viztoria
5.10 Longchamp (Prix du Cadran) My Cesarewitch winner, Tac de Boistron, is running in this, though I doubt he has the class of some of these.
The one I like is Altano (offers of 9.6), who looked booked to take a marathon like this when third in the Goodwood Cup. Compensation of sorts for the Novellist stable.
I had 25.0 for the Arc but he went down with fever a couple of days ago, when likely favourite. I can get the ‘overs’ but I can’t get them to the race. It happens to the best and it happens to the rest.
DAQMAN’S NAP Altano
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 20 points)
BET 2.8pts win on each DUTCH MASTERPIECE and JWALA, 1pt win and place DIBAJJ (12.45 Longchamp)
BET 2.7pts win VEDA, and 1.4pts win and place WONDERFULLY (1.20 Longchamp)
BET 6.6pts win KARAKONTIE and 3.5pts win WILSHIRE BOULEVARD (1.55 Longchamp)
BET 3pts win SILASOL and 2pts win SARKIYLA (2.30 Longchamp)
BET 4pts win TREVE, 2pts win and place LEADING LIGHT (3.15 Longchamp); loss ante-post 1.7 points.
BET 2.3pts win and place VIZTORIA (4.40 Longchamp)
BET 2.3pts win (nap) ALTANO 5.10 Longchamp)
FRENCH FLUTTER: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Veda (1.20 Longchamp), Moonlight Cloud (4.40 Longchamp) and Altano (5.10 Longchamp)
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