‘SOMETHING COULD BE ON THE BRINK OF GREATNESS’: Daqman hails the return of the Thyestes as a race for ‘grand and gold winners’, and analyses each runner with the words ‘something could be on the brink of greatness’. His verdict, as ever: best to find a decent early offer on BETDAQ! His pick was at 14.5 this morning, as he takes on Pricewise with the score 16-10 to Daqman.
GALMOY HURDLE NAP 5.8 ON BETDAQ THIS MORNING: With his customary daring on big-race days, Daqman naps against the Gold Cup favourite in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran, taking offers of 5.8 about his pick on BETDAQ this morning.
THE GREAT THYESTES REVIEW AT 14.5
It’s Thyestes day. And something could be on the brink of greatness from a race that has produced grand and gold winners, though it never gets the accolade it deserves.
Gowran Park is not a fashionable track; the Thyestes merely another watering hole as the huge Cheltenham bandwagon rolls on to its March conclusion.
But the Thyestes can produce a horse of Olympian proportions. And why not, since it’s named after the Greek god who was king of Olympia.
Arkle and Flyingbolt, still rated by many first and second in the list of equine jumping greats, both won it. Grand National winners Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde won it back to back.
Yet Thyestes, the horse, was a Yorkshire-trained sprinter on the Flat, son of the ‘spotted wonder’ The Tetrarch, still reckoned the best two-year-old of the 20th century.
3.00 Gowran Park (Thyestes Chase) As I said in my preview: with Tiger Roll now possibly diverted to Cheltenham, last year’s winner of the Thyestes, Monbeg Notorious, could assume the mantle of Gordon Elliott’s main Grand National hope.
The eight-year-old has only once been out of the first three – form figures 311212211102 – since his debut on conventional tracks.
That was in the Irish Grand National, won by stablemate General Principle, when Monbeg had a stone more than his Thyestes winning rating.
He followed his novice career, winning the Ten Up at Navan and runner-up in the Punchestown Champion Novice last Spring, only that once at Fairyhouse testing his new mark in an open handicap.
It’s a tough test, because Monbeg Notorious (Davy Russell) now has to give 9lb to the two years older General Principle (Jack Kennedy). Yes, the Elliott silverware for the Aintree feast is all here on show!
Monbeg Notorious is having his first race since Punchestown (he has won fresh), while General Principle has to bounce back from defeat in autumn big races at Navan and Leopardstown.
Of other Elliott runners, Borice, has also been mentioned by the trainer as a Grand National horse, and Out Sam landed the Cork Grand National for this column before running fifth in the Troytown off his revised rating.
The likely favourite, Invitation Only, is a Flemensfirth but there’s no indication on the dam’s side that he can climb to either Gold Cup or Grand National glory.
He’s also pursued a novice career which has been given a 152 mark, seemingly of identical quality to Monbeg Notorious, but he seems to have more to prove.
He’s never won higher than Grade 3 and never beyond 2m 4f, though the Willie Mullins yard describes him as having ‘buckets of scope and a great galloper’, and his reputation hinges on his being brought down, hampered, disputing the lead in the Punchestown Champion Novice (Monbeg Notorious second).
Willie has won the Thyestes six times, three of them subsequently placed in the Gold Cup, and has two Grand National runners-up in the field, Pleasant Company (Liverpool) and Isleofhopendreams (Fairyhouse).
Pairofbrowneyes won the Leinster Grand National on today’s course but is 10lb higher. Mall Dini’s best form is at Cheltenham, second and fifth in the Kim Muir, and winner of the Pertemps.
Verdict: This is such an open race, I probably haven’t even mentioned the winner! I have to look at it as if I’m taking an early BETDAQ price, always the best first step.
Of all the stats, the most persuasive is that the race is won nine times out of 10 by either a top-line jockey or a top-line trainer. Or both.
Up For Review (14.5) looks big, as an unexposed Mullins runner (only five chases), ridden by Paul Townend, and I’ll stick with Monbeg Notorious (11.5) as my Elliott hope, steered by Davy Russell.
DARASSO PUNT: ‘COULD BE ANYTHING’
1.50 Gowran Park (Galmoy Hurdle) This hurdle is a race for top chasers! War Of Attrition, Alpha Des Obeaux and last year’s RSA winner, Presenting Percy.
Percy is now on the Gold Cup trail as favourite for the big event. He won when fresh last season but it’s a warning for punters that he swerves the Irish Gold Cup for this, then waits for the Red Mills, back here at Gowran, as his final Cheltenham prep.
Shaneshill (Mullins) and Mala Beach (Elliott) have both won this before, and both are getting weight from Percy today. In the mix is a name from the past, though he’s still only 10: Don Poli, the 2015 RSA winner, has to boing pretty high if he’s going to all of a sudden bounce back.
It’s a race for young horses (six-year-olds won four out of six when Alpha Des Obeaux and Mala Beach were among the winners) and the well-backed Auteuil Listed winner Darasso could be anything.
5.55 Chelmsford Simon Crisford landed four winners in a row a week or so ago, and has borrowed Robert Havlin to see just How Far (BETDAQ 3.95) he can go to winning this sprint today.
IF Ed Walker had been showing a bit more form I’d be worried about Desert Doctor, who should turn things around with Alsvinder.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Gowran Park (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) DARASSO
3.00 Gowran Park (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.75pts win MONBEG NOTORIOUS
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.75pts win UP FOR REVIEW
5.55 Chelmsford (win 20 to cover the above stakes)
BET 6.75pts win HOW FAR
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