9-2 NAP IN ‘GOLD VALUE’ PUNTERS PARADISE: Daqman’s new betting strategy got off to an absolute flyer when his debut Gold Value bet, the only one of the day, Fencing (WON 9-2), won the Paradise Stakes at Ascot yesterday.
72 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: Three more winning bets followed to bring his total profit in three days to more than 72 points (Monday 16.20, Tuesday 7.05, Wednesday 49.20). The four hits yesterday were:
WON 9-2 (Gold Value bet, FENCING, nap)
WON 2-1 (Value bet, Sagaro Stakes, ESTIMATE)
2nd 25-1 (INTIBAAH, 42.0 at the ‘off’ on Betdaq)
WON 3-1 (Value bet, ALBONNY)
14.0 ABOUT 7-1 CLASSIC SHOT: Meanwhile Daqman’s 2,000 Guineas ante-post BETDAQ bet, Cristoforo Colombo (14.0), was this morning 7-1 in a place, 10.0 on BETDAQ, after the news that Joseph O’Brien will ride.
DAWN APPROACH GUINEAS SHOCK: Daqman’s ABC-plus check on the Guineas stats reveals a surprise black mark for the favourite, with Toronado clear of the field and Dawn Approach only fourth.
The essential ingredients of winners in the last 20 years are listed under Daqman’s A,B,C,D key:
A: Stallion stamina index of at least 8.9 (19 out of 20)
B: At least two wins and never out of the frame (10 out of 10)
C: Official rating at least 112 (10 out of 10)
D: First or second in any one of 19 key races (20-20, see Daqman Archive)
The Guineas is a race of sprint-breds this year! And that includes Dawn Approach. If he won it, he’d be the first since Zafonic in 1993 to have a stallion’s-stamina index lower than 8.9.
In 14 of the 19 years since Zafonic, the winner has been the get of a sire recording 9.5 to 11.7, with 9.9 the lowest in 11 of the 19 seasons.
Only three of Saturday’s runners, Mars (11.1), Toronado (10.3) and Moohaajim (8.9) fit this particular stat. In fact, Toronado has all the stats going for him, which makes him a stand-out.
The stallion’s-stamina indices, according to Racing Post figures, are, in alpha order: Correspondent 6.6, Cristoforo Colombo 6.5, Dawn Approach 8.7, Don’t Bother Me 6.9, Garswood 7.1, George Vancouver 6.5, Glory Awaits 7.2, Kyllachy Rise 6.6, Leitir Mor 7.7, Lines Of Battle 10.1, Mars 11.1, Moohaajim 8.9, Toronado 10.3 and Van Der Neer 7.1
Otherwise, Toronado, Dawn Approach and Van der Neer fit the requirements of class and consistency at a high level, as follows:
ABCD TORONADO Took the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last backend, stopping a hat–trick bid by Acomb Stakes winner, Dundonnell.
Had the same horse even further behind on the reappearance when impressive winner of Craven Stakes on firm ground last month, beating off Group-3 winner Havana Gold by four lengths.
AD MOOHAAJIM Prix Morny fifth when George Vancouver was second, beat Solario Stakes third Master Of War (Toronado’s stablemate) when winning the Mill Reef Stakes. Both these races were on a sound surface.
There was cut in the ground when the son of Cape Cross was second in the Middle Park, then third on his seasonal return in the Greenham last month to Olympic Glory.
A MARS The son of Galileo has an 11.1 stallion index, identical with Frankel’s (Camelot’s was 11.7), and was strongly supported for the Derby after the trial success of stablemate Battle Of Marengo.
Mars, himself, has been seen on a racecourse only once, winning first time out on the bridle (unusual for a horse’s first run) on the Dundalk Polytrack last July. The runner-up that day was 10 lengths behind Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst.
BCD DAWN APPROACH Unbeaten son of Derby winner New Approach, winning the Coventry Stakes – from Olympic Glory – the National Stakes and the Dewhurst, the last two both key guides to the Classics.
Olympic Glory is unbeaten in four races since, but the National Stakes third, Leitir Mor, closed down Dawn Approach a month later by more than six lengths when runner-up in the Dewhurst.
BCD VAN DER NEER Ran up to Ballydoyle’s one-time Derby-market leader, Kingsbarns, in the Racing Post Trophy on soft ground in October.
Kingsbarns has been injured since and Van Der Neer overtaken by stablemate Toronado. The runner-up in his reappearance Lingfield Trial win was a poor fifth in a Listed at the Craven meeting.
BC GARSWOOD The Cornwallis runner-up last year is another to have impressed in his 2013 trial and is regarded by Richard Fahey as the best he has trained.
He is by the miler Dutch Art, whose number-one son so far, Caspar Netscher, was only ninth in the Newmarket Guineas, but won the German equivalent on soft ground.
Garswood took the Free Handicap, not one of the key races for the Guineas in the last 20 years, and the runner-up – from the same stable as Toronado – had been beaten in the Lingfield (Listed) Spring Cup.
B CORRESPONDENT Well behind, fourth, in the Greenham (nine lengths off the third, Moohajim) but not suited by soft ground that day.
CD CRISTOFORO COLOMBO A firm-ground colt (like his sire, champion miler Henrythenavigator), he got within a length of Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, though racing away from the pace, badly drawn in 6 (the 1-2-4-5 came from stalls 13, 16, 21 and 11).
Soft ground after, and a fall (slipped up) in the Phoenix Stakes, have spoiled his profile and he now languishes officially 12lb inferior to Dawn Approach, which is unlikely to be the case granted top of the ground.
CD GEORGE VANCOUVER Another son of Henrythenavigator, who would most likely prefer a sound surface. Runner-up in the Prix Morny and third to Dawn Approach and Leitir Mor in the Dewhurst, with the ground against him, good to soft.
He showed his ground propensity when he won the Breeders Cup juvenile (colts) on firm, with Dundonnell in fourth, three lengths down, six weeks after that one got within half a length of Toronado in the Champagne but, of course, Toronado has beaten him well over four lengths this season.
C LEITER MOR Ties in with some of these but, as the Bolger yard’s second-string to Dawn Approach, his being beaten three times by him already doesn’t help all that much as a ‘sighter’. Being chased home by your own stablemate doesn’t provide much collateral form!
D DON’T BOTHER ME Don’t bother me with this one as he can’t even win a Listed, and his form yet again ties in with lesser lights from the Toronado stable.
– GLORY AWAITS Looks exposed as Listed level at best
– KYLLACHY RISE Still a maiden
– LINES OF BATTLE Doubtful runner
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win PLAYBILL (3.20 Lingfield)
BET 6.4pts win (nap) MONT RAS (3.30 Redcar)
BET 7pts win MR MAYNARD (3.50 Lingfield)
BET 0.9pts win and place DARKSIDE (5.00 Redcar)
BET 6.4pts win MACDONALD MOR (5.40 Chepstow)
BET 0.3pts win and place JEWELLED DAGGER (6.40 Chepstow)
BET 5pts win SHARP AND SMART (7.10 Chepstow)
Daqman’s Gold Value will return at the Guineas meeting on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile search out the value races on BETDAQ. Targets: it’s a sub-standard day; just one win and a big-odds place would give Daqman break-even.
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