FIVE WINNING NAPS OUT OF SIX: Daqman made it five winning naps from the last six with a banker bet on Tryster (WON 4-6) at Kempton last night, the 12th winning maximum-stakes bet from 18, giving him banker form of 111111132121311U21. Naps are 111121, as follows:
WON 2-5 (banker) Minella Rocco
WON 7-2 Sound Investment
WON 5-2 Sun Cloud
WON 8-11 Artifice Sivola
2ND 6-1 Barton Heather
WON 4-6 (banker) Tryster
PHOTO FINISHES OFF TREBLE BY A NOSE: His nap and another banker, Hakam (beaten a nose), just missed out on a treble with Midnight Tour (WON 7-2) after a disputed photo-finish, in which Hakam was deemed to have been beaten a nose. The three were his only bets of the day.
RACING AHEAD: CHELTENHAM 3: Today Daqman discusses the Thursday card a week ahead of the Cheltenham Festival, with stats and facts about each race to be run in seven days’ time.
RYANAIR IS PUNTERS’ FESTIVAL FAVOURITE
1.30 Cheltenham, next Thursday (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): The former Jewson is only four years old but every year without fail the winner comes from a very tight ratings parameter: 146-148, all younger than eight, all with five or fewer outings over fences.
The front four in the market rate between 153-159, which suggests we have a stronger race this year or, as one ratings man suggested to me, it’s been a fair winter with a lot of competition, so the ratings may have edged up a bit this season.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: This column is on Apache Stronghold at 7.4 on BETDAQ, already shorter on the morning of the declarations, when we need to shed some fancied runners to give us room to trade.
2.05 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Final): Jonjo O’Neill has trained the winner of this three times this century, 25-1 and 50-1 the last twice.
Those two were rated 20lb apart (off 120 and 140); one came to the race with form figures 00P0, the other 2222; one had had 25 hurdles runs, one only six. What chance have you got!
Well, the ratings lore of the race seems to be: carries 10st 8lb to 11st 7lb (six out of eight); some 35 horses off 143 or more have all failed in the last 13 years.
That reads like bad news for fans of front-of-the-market Dawalan (rated 150), though Brother Brian is on the cusp (144), closely followed by Big Easy (145).
Recently back-to-form Regal Encore (139) and Edeymi (135) for Tony Martin look nicely poised, and Jonjo will today be choosing from Join The Clan (139), Upswing and Alaivan (both on 134) and – probably too far down the handicap – Milan Bound and Kelvingrove.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: I’ll be looking to see if Alaivan is left in. Third in the Triumph Hurdle and close up twice in the County Hurdle, he came back to form (after a long lay-off) in the Exeter qualifier for this. Around 20.0.
2.40 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase) The last four winners have been rated within a 4lb parameter – on 165, 168, 166 and 169 – with seven of the last 10 already successful over course and distance or near enough.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Essential you wait until the morning of the race, when BETDAQ backers have followed the money to success year on year, gambles to SPs of 3-1 to 6-1, with only one exception in the decade.
3.20 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) Will the big players, like Willie Mullins (Briar Hill, Annie Power), play their hand now or double declare in other races at the meeting and wait until next week?
Is there an Inglis Drever or a Big Buck’s among this year’s crop? Are they World beaters? In recent years, every new winner, starting a sequence, or winning just the once, has been aged six years old, bar one.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The stats point up the only six-year-old at the front of betting affairs, Saphir Du Rheu.
I couldn’t desert the luckless Briar Hill – at 15.0 for this column – who was about to step up a stone on his form this year when falling at the last in the Boyne Hurdle.
But that, and the withdrawal of last year’s winner, More Of That, led to my thinking that the 2014 runner-up Annie Power (15.5 taken) may yet run in this, instead of the Mares Hurdle.
4.00 Cheltenham, Thursday (Plate Handicap Chase) Look for a young horse (7 out of 10 were aged six to eight) with a rating of 135-140 (which usually translates as between 10st 6lb and 11st).
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: I shall be hoping that Easter Meteor or Monetaire are declared for David Pipe, who has trained the winner three times in the last five seasons, last year with Ballynagour, who was set a stone higher this time around.
4.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Kim Muir Chase) This is one of my favourite races: I’ve had three winners at 12-1 and 16-1 in the last decade.
Horses aged seven and eight do well but nine-year-olds have the best percentage strike by a long chalk. Another narrow ratings band: 137-142 (four wins in five seasons).
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The usual suspects among handicap trainers have horses well placed: the nine-year-olds among them are Twirling Magnet (Jonjo O’Neill), Buddy Bolero (Tony Martin) and Ardkilly Witness (Dr Richard Newland).
BANKERS DOUBLE AT CHELMSFORD TONIGHT
We wuz robbed! You rarely hear me talk through my pocket but, watching the finish, I thought that Ryan Moore on Hakam had just got up at Lingfield yesterday, more than confirmed by the photo still, which showed at worst a dead-heat. No way did Ventriloquist win a nose. We are all dummies for accepting it.
Ryan will be wanting recompense at Chelmsford tonight, already one of my favourite tracks with a 40% strike-rate. And I shall try for another bankers double, courtesy of Moore, there tonight.
I’ll try the treble again but this time I will add a bigger-priced bet at Carlisle, trying to give cover to my stakes.
The Moore magic should be soon to the good on Renounce (5.45), ‘expected’ first time for trainer in form Jeremy Noseda, whose form figures are 1412 in the last fortnight: 2.38 on BETDAQ this morning.
The treble is completed by (shade of odds-on) Emirates Skycargo (7.15), said to be better than ever after being gelded, and is launched by Grey Life (3.45) at Carlisle.
CARLISLE: Tom Scudamore cost me the other day when he stole a march on my 6-1 nap, Barton Heather (second), by making all on Red Devil Lads at Exeter.
His mount in the novices chase, Midnight Request (2.35) – first time over fences – can show what a good judge Tom is.
I expect him to cut out the running, dropped back more than three furlongs from a good hurdles effort at Taunton – first time ridden by Scudamore – over three miles plus. He should certainly last out and give you a trade, offered at 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
Trainer-in-form Malcolm Jefferson (form figures 1313141 still standing) had CD winner Quite The Man in the two-mile chase but instead runs lightly-raced Grey Life (3.45) who is coming down the weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10 points)
BET 3pts win and place MIDNIGHT QUEST (2.35 Carlisle)
BET 8pts win GREY LIFE (3.45 Carlisle)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) RENOUNCE (5.45 Chelmsford)
BANKER: BET 10pts win EMIRATES SKYCARGO (7.15 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win treble GREY LIFE (3.45 Carlisle), RENOUNCE (5.45 Chelmsford) and EMIRATES SKYCARGO (7.15 Chelmsford)
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