DAQMAN LANDS DOUBLE WHAMMY: After three bankers out of four on Tuesday, Daqman changed tactics at Southwell yesterday and landed two winning bets in one race, a lay on the morning favourite, Two Moons (unplaced), and a bet on Pearl Nation (WON 2-1 from 4.3 on BETDAQ).
COUNTDOWN TO THE LINCOLN: Today Daqman ferrets out more facts and stats to add to his Tuesday ABC Guide (see Archive) on the Lincoln Handicap, Saturday’s big race at Doncaster, which launches the Flat season.
20-1 LINCOLN WINNERS BLOWING IN THE WIND
The Lincoln draw could be a disaster on the day. I say ‘on the day’ because, even if it spoils your horse’s chances at Doncaster, it could give you future winners to take out of the race. It’s an ill wind..
I have carefully avoided an ante-post bet on Saturday’s big handicap for two reasons: first of all, that draw for stalls positions; second of all, the weather.
In fact, draw and weather could combine to make known form worthless, if the forecast rain gets into the ground (And, apparently, with the rain, we can expect that ‘ill wind’ in fierce squalls).
The going has been soft, or nearly so, in four of the Lincolns at Doncaster since the track was renewed. In three of them, the winner was drawn in stall 1 or 3. In three of them the winner’s SP was 10-1, 20-1 and 25-1. In three of them, older horses got into the frame: aged six (twice), seven and eight (three times).
In fact, stall 3 was never out of the first five in all four races. Horses drawn 1 to 5 scored three wins and three seconds.
Taking the first and second only in those four renewals on the soft, only one of the eight came from a stall higher than 12.
The ratings are also tell-tale in the last three soft-ground years. Horses drawn 95 to 98 filled EIGHT (yes, eight) of the 12 places, first to fourth.
Watch for horses inconvenienced by ground or draw and take them out of the race for another big date in the coming weeks when there is drier weather.
Last year, Gabrial’s Kaka (sixth) ran well, though not liking the soft. Next time out? Good-ground winner of the Newbury Spring Cup at a well-backed 8-1.
Previously, Field Of Dream was not at home on the soft surface, but later won the International at Ascot at 25-1. In 2010, Albaqaa was all at sea on the soft but landed a gamble on good ground from a big field at Pontefract next time.
SAM AND DINOSAUR NAPPED AT NEWBURY
Not even a champion jockey can do a David Cameron. Since announcing his retirement, Tony McCoy’s rides have slumped. He’s had just one winner in the last two weeks and has only one booked ride this weekend (on Sunday).
Next season’s jockey-title duel will no doubt be fought out between Sam Twiston-Davies and Richard Johnson, who are both at Newbury today.
I had been waiting for the better ground for Henry Daly’s horses but Tara Mist under Johnson let me down on Saturday in the NH Mares’ Novices Hurdle Finale, also at Newbury.
Daly has been missing strike all round. Of his two favourites in the last fortnight, one finished third and one fell, so I am no longer tempted in another mares’ race today by Queen Spud (5.20), particularly after her long lay-off.
The stables in form in the race are Charlie Longsdon (Java Rose), Neil Mulholland (Rhythm Star), Nicky Henderson (What A Jewel), Dan Skelton (Gaye Memories) and Andrew Balding (Queen’s Star)
Java Rose, What A Jewel, Queen’s Star and Rhythm Star have yet to emerge from novice company, but any one of them might do so; Ebony Empress seems stuck at class-4 level.
The one I like is Gaye Memories (11.5 on BETDAQ early mouse), a typical lightly-raced Dan Skelton runner who won twice last Spring and has had a break over the winter to avoid the boggy ground.
Sam Twiston-Davies should score early on, with either or both of Mr Dinosaur (2.30) and Katgary (3.05) for Paul Nicholls.
Mr Dinosaur is by the same sire as Vautour, Sir Des Champs and Quevega, and the dam is related to a Midlands Grand National winner. So class and stamina.
He can score at the main expense of Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite, on which man of the moment Nico ‘Coneygree’ De Boinville deputises for the injured Barry Geraghty. I hope Might Bite can create a price for me about Mr Dinosaur.
Nicholls, with last year’s Fred Winter placed Katgary, and Henderson, with a two-pronged attack, led by Tistory, clash again in the next.
Chosen Well, a useful staying chase prospect for Alan King, is gaining winning experience over hurdles and must be the saver to Katgary.
DAQMAN’S BETS (strength 1 to 9)
BET 7pts win (nap) MR DINOSAUR (2.30 Newbury)
BET 5pts win CHOSEN WELL and 4pts win KATGARY (3.05 Newbury)
BET 2pts win and place GAYE MEMORIES (5.20 Newbury)
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