DAQMAN LANDS 9-4 NAP WITH CHOICE STAKING PLAN: Daqman bids for a second nap today at around the 2-1 mark to cover some inspired guesswork on a strong card at Newbury, after a profit of 14.60 yesterday from a three-race staking plan:
✔️ WON 9-4 VINO’S CHOICE (nap)
✔️ WON (3rd 5-1) RADETSKY (place return)
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: Preview and bets for the Final fling on the Flat
BIG BREAK IS FOR KALOOKI
⭕ 1.30 Newbury This novices chase could produce a hat-trick of star names. In the last two seasons it has launched a four-timer by La Bague Au Roi (2018).
And it was the first chase (2019) in Champ’s sequence of eight wins from nine races still standing, culminating in the RSA at Cheltenham in March.
Runner-up to La Bague Au Noir was Colin Tizzard’s Lostintranslation, who wouldn’t get off the mark until the following January in the Dipper at Cheltenham. Colin is hoping The Big Breakaway makes his chasing breakthrough first time.
I had heard such good reports of ‘Breakaway’ that I put his name into the Fortune Cookies update yesterday.. and then took it out again, so obviously is the Tizzard stable missing strike.
I thought for a moment it had turned the corner when Kauto The King won (we were on!) at Wincanton last week.
But it’s runners since have included 3333440303223102 with, among them, UPFUPUP. I think Tizzard backers have every right to transcribe FUP as ‘fed up.’
Dual hurdles winner and Ballymore fourth, The Big Breakaway – he sure is big and has the look of a chaser – is highly regarded but impossible to tip while the yard is so low on returns (overall 6% strike rate at 2-36).
Tizzard blames the Ballymore defeat – behind Envoi Allen – on his runners performing poorly at the Cheltenham meeting.
The Milborne Port team has five runners today, at Newbury and in a rare visit to Sedgefield, but I can only watch. Whether he wins or loses, The Big Breakaway won’t carry my money at odds on this morning.
I took a bit of 7.6 Kalooki. His trainer, Philip Hobbs, is keen on his chances, and I reckon the plan today will be to make all.
The half-brother to Kruzhlinin is reckoned ‘a proper staying chaser for the future’ and, though the Hobbs runners disappointed at Exeter, the yard had turned the corner at the end of October with a hot spell of 11304113.
One For The Team may need a lot further than this (dam half-sister to a Grand National winner) but has the benefit of a recent third in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle behind McFabulous.
Again, the trainer could be in better form (Nick Williams 0-7) but the Chepstow run by One For The Team is the only race in the last 236 days for any one of the four at the front of this market, separated by only 4lb in their hurdles ratings.
ALL PRESENT AND CORRECT
⭕ 2.30 Newbury These Pertemps qualifiers are each worth around £10,000 to the winner so fields are a mixture of those trying to win the race and those merely wanting to qualify and get a nice weight in the final at Cheltenham.
Of last year’s 1-2-3, only the third horse got to Cheltenham where he unseated rider at 50-1. The year before, nothing.
As for 2017, the winner was 18th the following March in the Cheltenham final but has come full circle: the name is Dell’ Arca, back in today’s qualifier at the tender age of 11.
His win at Aintree last month promoted him to a spot among the shorter priced runners today but I can’t believe he’ll hold his form against some improvers around half his age.
Nicky Henderson, who won last year, has Fugitives Drift going for a hat-trick but still rated behind Third Wind, who has won one of these qualifiers at Wincanton, and officially only equal to Dolphin Square.
All are now giving weight to hat-trick seekers Present Chief and Sammylou, whose Newton Abbot form doesn’t look up to this.
Present Chief will welcome the forecast sunny day; he likes the ground on the good side and is so progressive he’s up 22lb this year from 2211 form figures, and distances up to 3m 2f.
Jonjo O’Neill Jnr said after winning easily on Present Chief at Warwick that they ‘hacked around.’ The 6.5 BETDAQ offers are value.
AZZERTI TO ASSERT AGAIN
⭕ 3.05 Newbury Azzerti is back for more in this handicap chase, after winning it last year from a field of similar quality (Barton Knoll fourth).
Azzerti was raised in class after that and, following a decent return last month, might be ready to bounce back, returning to his winning class in the same race today.
Morning Vicar has made this track his home but 030F form since winning a bumper here in January 2018 suggests that supporters will need to say matins.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is in shocking form with just one winner among his last 36 starters, and Redford Road, a Grade-2 hurdles winner, was run out of it in a Perth chase won by Not That Fuisse who has failed to cope with tougher opposition since.
Azzerti was too big at 7.8 this morning in the offers on the BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
STOUTE HOPE LOOKS SOLID
⭕ 6.45 Chelmsford Sir Michael Stoute had three winners out of four at AW tracks in the last three days of October, and Solid Stone’s defeat of Sky Defender over the Chelmsford CD in September looks key to this.
Sky Defender has been placed in two Group-3 contests since around the end of August.
Though What’s The Story’s winning form is all at 7f-1m, they’ve been trying to turn him into a 10-furlong horse ever since his third to Pivoine in a big handicap at York last year.
The Gill Brothers also has 7f-1m form and, if he continues to pull hard, he’s not going to get this 1m 2f trip, with his wide stall against him.
He will surely be the sufferer if Red October puts his usual pace to the race, which looks the most likely scenario from his low draw.
Red October is another with a question mark over stable form: Hugo Palmer is 1-18, with the win surrounded by four losing favourites in a sequence of 10 horses missing strike: 3432334222 in the last fortnight.
Success for Solid Stone at slightly better than 2-1 (BETDAQ 3.2 as I write) would pay for all three bets at Newbury but I hope to be ahead of the game by then.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3pts win KALOOKI
2.30 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win PRESENT CHIEF
3.05 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3pts win AZZERTI
6.45 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 5pts win (nap) SOLID STONE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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