DAQMAN BACK WITH A BANG: HE GOES BANKER ON THE CHAMP: Where’s Hughsie? Daqman’s search for the champion jockey, who swerves 15 Richard Hannon rides today, ends at Epsom with a maximum-stakes banker.
DAQMAN BACK WITH A BANG: HERE’S HIS FAMOUS ABC GUIDE TO THE ECLIPSE: It’s full marks from the stats for Al Kazeem, but can the Ballydoyle selected, Declaration of War, upset the favourite. Here are the stats related to each horse by the code letters, ABCDE.
A Group-1 winner (10 out of 10)
B Rated 122 – 126 (all with official ratings)
C Age four or five (15 out of 20)
D Three runs or fewer that season (9 out of 10)
E 7-2 or shorter (6 out of 7)
ABCDE Al Kazeem Has shot up the ranks with four Group wins this season including defeat of Camelot (‘won fair and square’ Tattersalls Gold Cup, The Curragh, May) and Mukhadram (‘hard race to run down Mukhadram’, Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Ascot, June).
Was earlier a course-and-distance winner in the Gordon Richards Stakes, and won his only race in 2012, so that his form is 1111 since 2011.
ABCD Camelot (doubtful runner) After being overhauled by Al Kazeem at The Curragh, he was then only fourth behind Al Kazeem and Mukhadram at Royal Ascot, and his Derby double of last season now reads like a lucky turn of the cards.
His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has sent out five Eclipse winners, said last night that plans for Camelot are on hold and that a decision on Declaration of War will be made today or tomorrow.
ACD Declaration of War A Danzig who wants fast ground to deliver his speed, he won over 10-furlongs-plus on AW at Dundalk but in a slow time and his best performance was last time out over a mile at Royal Ascot, winning the Queen Anne with an impressive turn of foot.
ACD Pastorius The 2012 German Derby winner landed his third Group-1 this season when grabbing the Prix Ganay at Longchamp (11 furlongs).
Hailed as the next Danedream, his Arc-winnning compatriot, but flopped (12 of 13) when favourite in Singapore for the International Cup at Kranji, and has to bounce back now. Very hot weather is blamed for that defeat and he’s had a nice break since.
ACD The Fugue The 2012 Musidora winner went close in the Epsom Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks, and was also second in the Ribblesdale and third in the Breeders Cup (fillies and mares).
She took the Nassau Stakes in the middle of that sequence but has been the bridesmaid again this year, third to Al Kazeem and Mukhadram at Royal Ascot, albeit on her first run back, so expected to improve. Still, strange we have seen her only once since last November.
BCD Mukhadram Paul Hanagan promises to play ‘catch me’ on William Haggas’s son of Shamardal, who was only fifth in the 2012 Cambridgeshire off 101 but enjoyed front-running in the Group-3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes to pip last year’s Derby runner-up, Main Sequence.
The ploy almost worked again in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot when just failing to stop Al Kazeem’s late surge after being kicked into the lead two furlongs out.
Whatever happens to Mukhadram on Saturday, he is one of the season’s star improvers – up 24lb to 125 since those handicapping days – and seems certain to make the Eclipse a true test.
C Miblish Third in the Brigadier Gerard, nearly three lengths behind Mukhadram and fifth when that one was overhauled by Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. Looks a nearly horse, several pounds out of his depth here.
D Mars Three-year-olds have had only six Eclipse runners in five years, with just one win to show for it. Their form figures in the last decade are 1001420130. Mars is their only representative today.
Still very lightly raced – four runs – he has taken on the best, improving on his Guineas flop to get within less than four lengths of the Derby winner at Epsom and less than three lengths of the Guineas winner in a fast-run St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
On each occasion, Mars met trouble in running and finished well. That divides the jury between those who think he is the unlucky colt of the season and those who consider that horses repeatedly hampered are suspect and make their own bad luck. Saturday returns the verdict.
TODAY
2.20 Haydock: Three-year-olds have won the opener every time from 11 of 32 runners in the three years of its existence. Richard Hannon seems to have spotted this, with his Meshardal and Dama De La Noche the only second-season animals running in the race today. But where is Richard Hughes? Read on; read on.
2.50, 3.20 Haydock and 4.10 Yarmouth The Burkes won both maidens at Haydock last year, and could be celebrating Karl’s licence-renewal application with either or both of Romantic Bliss and Greed Is Good. The yard has a 33% win record with two-year-olds in July.
Elaine Burke also sends her Nottingham winner, Odeliz (4.10), on the long journey from Yorkshire to Yarmouth but the offers look a bit short for me.
It’s that first Haydock maiden (2.50) that is the intriguing race: Setai (7.0 on BETDAQ) has been working well at home, and that Burke filly Romantic Bliss was a tempting 13.0 this morning, but the front pair look hot.
Lady Lara ran eighth in the Albany at Royal Ascot and Richard Hannon’s Mumtaza is related to top of the class, yet Richard Hughes is nowhere to be seen this afternoon, waiting for Epsom this evening. I’ll discuss the strange affair of the missing champion when I get to analyse Newbury and Epsom. It gets better.
As for the 3.20 Haydock maiden, I’m told to be on Zaraee, and I reckon if I back the two Dubawis – Setai and Zaraee – I will have an edge.
Paul Hanagan rides Zaraee for Williams Haggas and the pair, as a team, have a rare 63% record on the course.
4.50 Haydock These look much of a muchness and, with only 1.0 separating the first three in the betting, I’ll give a chance to Hallowina (13.5 on BETDAQ at the time of writing), dropped back from the pattern.
Hallowina, whose maiden win was on today’s course, was fifth in the (Listed) Cheshire Oaks, and outclassed raised to Group level in the Musidora and the Ribblesdale but obviously highly thought of.
5.50 Haydock Three-year-olds have been seen in this race seven of the last eight years and won six of them. Mark Johnston’s form figures in the race are 1113 since 2009.
And, although Johnston’s Kingscoft looks well exposed, and has never won at a mile, the stable has suddenly hit a purple patch with figures of 11101 in the last two days.
Ardmay, Dubai Hills, Ewell Place, No Poppy and Weapon of Choice all seem to need rain, and I prefer Chosen Character, who has Haydock form figures of 41112 and acts on any going.
You can’t ignore dual Haydock winner this season, Lord Of The Dance, or dual Haydock winner over three seasons, Mont Ras.
I shall take Mont Ras (4.4 this morning) and Chosen Character (12.0) but, if the rain comes in any quantity, I can switch to soft-ground horses, since BETDAQ offers such a punter-friendly list in the orange, the total percentage probability adding up to only 106.
6.50 Newbury Richard Hannon’s record in this is 121114 with his first jockey of that night on all the winners.
Snag is here, he has five runners and it’s an equally difficult bet as to who is first jockey! Maybe Dane O’Neill on the grey filly, Rajis. Maybe not.
Missing from the Hannon line-up of jockeys in this race is Richard Hughes in order to ride a highly regarded sort at Epsom.
6.35 Epsom At last! Here’s Hughesie! He and The Alamo are my nap of the day. It’s his only Hannon ride at Epsom; indeed, the only Hannon runner there, though there are 10 of his going begging for other jocks to pick up at Newbury. A total of 15 throughout the day are swerved by Hughes.
Significant or what! Particularly when you add to the ingredients Richard Hughes’s 32% s trike rate at Epsom. Banker! Ching ching!
7.45 Epsom Simon Dow’s record in this since 2005 is 12110 and Golden Desert – one run at Goodwood at 50-1 since a winning winter campaign on AW – has clearly been aimed at this, with Jamie Spencer booked.
Another old boy, Lowther, could be dangerous: he drops two grades and last time he was in class 4, he won over today’s trip at Kempton.
But surely the edge is to oppose the granddads. There is one nine-year-old and three aged eight, one is seven, and the stats say that, in five of the last six years, ages three to five have won this.
Balty Boys, once fourth in the Middle Park, has been going well in blinkers, but, though he’s dropped 25lb since those days, hasn’t won since his maiden back in 2011.
And the one I fancy is Good Luck Charm, who would be 111 had he not been hampered at Lingfield in May. Seems to act on any ground, so impending rain is not a worry.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 3.3pts win SETAI (2.50 Haydock)
BET 8.5pts win ZARAEE (3.20 Haydock)
BET 1.6pts win and place HALLOWINA (4.50 Haydock)
BET 3pts win A BRIDGE TOO FAR (5.00 Perth)
BET 6.6pts win MONT RAS and 1.8pts win CHOSEN CHARACTER (5.50 Haydock)
BANKER BET (NAP) 20pts win THE ALAMO (6.35 Epsom)
BET 3.4pts win GOOD LUCK CHARM (7.45 Epsom)
BET 8.5pts win COURT PASTORAL (8.55 Epsom)
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