VADENI KEY PLAYER IN THE ECLIPSE: How good is Daqman’s Fortune Cookie, Vadeni, winner of the French Derby? Daqman today checks out the form and ratings for Vadeni’s clash with Mishriff and Co in Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. Aidan O’Brien said yesterday that his entire Eclipse contingent of Aikhal, High Definition and Stone Age are doubtful runners.
BETS THAT SING IN THE HAYDOCK RAIN: Soft going at Haydock this afternoon but Daqman hopes to find three contenders who won’t mind the ground.
ECLIPSE RATINGS AND FORM GUIDE
The stats say it’s 6-4 against a three-year-old winning. But Vadeni is second-top rating of the entire Eclipse field.. And that’s before you add in the 10lb official gap between the age groups.
It gets even worse in the King George, when the three-year-olds last year got 11lb from the then four-year-old Mishriff.
I’m singling out Mishriff here because he was beaten in BOTH Eclipse (third of four) and King George (second of five) in 2021. Yet he’s top-rated for Saturday’s Eclipse renewal off 125.
This suggests that Mishriff, who has won only once in England in two years, can beat BOTH young improvers on Saturday, Vadeni and Native Trail. But would you like to bet on it?
125 MISHRIFF (5-9-9) David Egan takes over the Frankie Dettori mantle for Team Gosden, who also employ James Doyle for Lord North, who was slow away under Dettori at Royal Ascot (see below).
Mishriff’s year was 2020, when he won five races, including the French Derby, Saudi Cup and Sheema Classic. Last year he won the International at York by six lengths from Alenquer.
123 REAL WORLD (5-9-9) Won Group-2 (twice) over a mile after taking the 2021 Royal Hunt Cup but met his match this year against Baaeed, second in the Lockinge and the Queen Anne. He is 1-4 over 1m 2f since his debut. DOUBTFUL
123 VADENI (3-8-13) The Aga Khan’s Churchill colt is unbeaten (2-2) since his reappearance and 4-6 overall, including the Prix De Guiche (1m 1f in May) and the French Derby (1m 2f) by five lengths at the beginning of June. He goes to Sandown on Saturday with the same 123 rating as Desert Crown.
121 BAY BRIDGE (4-9-9) After a progressive five wins in a row, including over the Eclipse CD, he was always held by State Of Rest at Royal Ascot, the winner having run Alenquer to half a length in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.
121 NATIVE TRAIL (3-8-13) Beaten only once in his career (6-7) and that by Coroebus in the 2,000 Guineas. Winner of the Dewhurst, Craven Stakes and Irish 2,000 Guineas, still has to be tested beyond a mile.
120 ALENQUER (4-9-9) Won the Sandown Classic Trial over this CD last April from subsequent Derby winner, Adayar. Six-lengths second to Mishriff in the York International. Won the Winter Derby from Lord North and the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh (High Definition second, State Of Rest third).
120 DUBAI HONOUR (4-9-9) Hat-trick at 1m 2f last year, including two Group 2 on good to firm, good to soft and very soft, before second in the Champions Middle-Distance Stakes to French Derby runner-up, Sealiway.
119 HIGH DEFINITION (4-9-9) Placed in two Group 1, including beaten a neck by Alenquer at the Curragh (see above). Generally disappointing (beaten favourite four races in a row) after winning the Beresford as a two-year-old. DOUBTFUL
118 LORD NORTH (6-9-9) Has won only in Dubai since winning at Royal Ascot in 2020, beating Addeybb. Placed twice behind Alenquer.
114 STONE AGE (3-8-13) Beat Glory Daze impressively in the Leopardstown Derby Trial but something to prove now after sixth in the Epsom Derby (Glory Daze 14th). DOUBTFUL
111 AIKHAL (3-8-13) Last of 11 in Newmarket 2,000 Guineas but easily beat Duke Of Sessa (Irish 2,000 fifth) in the International at the Curragh over 1m 2f just a week ago. DOUBTFUL
ICONIQUE WILL LIKE THE GROUND
⭕ 1.30 Haydock (1m 3.5f) Storm Chase broke her duck at Nottingham after 11 defeats in a row, including close to the bull three times; second beaten two lengths or less.
To say that Storm Chase finally ran away with the Nottingham race is wide of the mark; the jockeys behind all went to sleep when they thought it not worth trying to catch her.
The stewards were not harsh on them: it was an apprentice race, and it was hands-and-heels only. So a cruel twist to raise Storm Chase 11lb.
Bookies claim that Storm Chaser is little better than evens to win again just seven days later in her bid to beat the penalty, which does not yet apply.
In a 103% list of BETDAQ offers, there must be a value alternative.
James Fanshawe won the race last year and Greek Flame could be the one, up in trip on her turf debut.
But I fancy Iconique, a class-4 winner at Yarmouth on the soft, running her best race since on the last day, and with James Doyle taking over.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.6 Iconique
TAKE LEGEND TO THUNDER HOME
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (6f 212yd, 3-y-o): The grey Espressoo was beaten into a place in both her soft-ground juvenile events, and her only turf win came when she broke her maiden at Ayr in April (going: good).
Thunder Legend has no form with cut in the ground but his sire’s progeny generally acts on most surfaces. Drops in class here after running second to the useful Outgate at Chester.
Cheekpieces are applied and he could be good enough at the weights to beat Espressoo and Liamarty Dreams, who has won at a lower level but at least it was at Haydock.
BETDAQ value: 3.25 Thunder Legend
IMAGE PICK ON HANDICAP DEBUT
⭕ 4.00 Haydock (1m 2f, 3yo): Knight Of Honour’s progeny has a high strike-rate on soft ground and he was well able to handle Broadspear, the favourite, when they met at Goodwood.
But there are red flags flying next to Broadspear’s name, which degrades that result and warns against a bet today: still a maiden; second three times out of four; beaten favourite every time he’s run.
Better value may be Secret Image, whose sole start on English turf was when a soft-ground winner at Goodwood in October. This is his handicap debut.
If his November race at Wolverhampton could be relied on, he would be long-odds-on here after running Emily Upjohn to a neck, giving the filly 12lb.
Paradias has never been out of the first four, has won on a softish surface and is gradually climbing the ladder.
BETDAQ value 4.5 Secret Image
1.30 Haydock (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win ICONIQUE
3.00 Haydock (win 10, nap)
BET 4pts win THUNDER LEGEND
4.00 Haydock (win 10)
BET 2.85pts win SECRET IMAGE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.