14.0 WINNER A STAR BETDAQ HIT: Star-tipster Daqman struck again yesterday, and so did BETDAQ value. They combined for a 14.0 opening-race winner at Goodwood from a 106% orange, Star Rider (WON 11-1; Total SP 124%). He came away from the field at the end of the 2m 5f Goodwood Stakes.
ANOTHER PRICEWISE KNOCK-OUT: Daqman completed a double in races nominated by Pricewise of the Racing Post with Ulysees (WON 9-2). The 2-0 win makes the score a knock-out Daqman 59, Pricewise 25. Today they clash in the 2.00 and 3.10 Goodwood, and the 4.45 Galway Hurdle.
WON 11-1 Star Rider (14.0 BETDAQ)
WON 9-2 Ulysees
AND ANOTHER BETDAQ VALUE K.O. As Daqman goes through his big-race analyses today, he follows the trail of another massive value day for BETDAQ, with 102 and 104% overrounds. His nap (for a place) is in the Goodwood Cup.
DWIGHT D EYES AN HOUR OF GLORY..
2.00 Goodwood Stakes Mark Johnston runs four. He has won this four times in the decade but his total runners in the winning races was 12, and his overall total, including the six losing heats, was 30.
M Johnston is, to say the least, unpredictable. So only a 13% strike rate and a profit of just 2.25 to a single unit, level stakes.
And there may be two Group horses in this contest: Stargazer was due to take a successful Stoute path from a Sandown handicap in the Spring to one at the Epsom Derby meeting which has produced such stable gems as Conduit. But something went wrong.
Meanwhile, High Shields was only third in his Sandown maiden but broke through over CD at Goodwood before the limitations of this Great Voltigeur entry as to trip were seemingly exposed over 1m 4f at Ascot earlier this month.
After Dwight D was well beaten in Classic trials at Sandown and Chester, he was gelded and is now better off with the winner, Ode To Evening, for an eye-catching handicap debut (came from well behind, third) at the Newmarket July Meeting.
You just worry about Jamie Spencer’s being on board here; he’s been superb on straight courses lately but has less than half the strike–rates of Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori on this conundrum track called Goodwood.
(Moore is 14% in the Racing Post’s online statistics but only 8% in the Goodwood Top Jockeys’ table in print today; the 14% is correct).
James Doyle is booting them home – four winners at Goodwood this week already – but there is no evidence to suggest that the 7f winner Carrington can step up to nigh-on 10f here, albeit there’s the downhill respite.
Like Dwight D, Top Beak ran in two Derby trials but was beaten a total of 40 lengths. His trainer, Hughie Morrison, landed a touch for me yesterday but this one may need more time. Winners of this had raced at least six times.
You have to find as many percentages as you can when you play in a tight handicap, and the draw could be crucial: seven of the last nine winners were from stalls 3 to 10.
That brings in Banksea, who was not far behind Ode To Evening and Dwight D at Newmarket, and this course will better suit one who pulls hard. As far as we know, Goodwood Zodiac would like some cut in the ground.
They punted local horse Czech It Out yesterday but he fluffed his lines, and Amanda Perrett has had a low-key season (4-77, which is just 5%, on turf).
BETDAQ ORANGE VERDICT (104%): Dwight D is about right at 7.8 (don’t blow this, Spenny!). The 9.4 offer High Shields looks solid for a place. Stall 16 and the long absence is a worry for Stargazer, so he looks a bit short, but work watchers are on, and I wouldn’t blame you for having a stakes saver.
MARK THE RICHMOND WITH A CROSS
2.35 Goodwood (Richmond Stakes) This regularly gets eight runners but is a poor renewal today for punters; who quite rightly don’t like small-field tactical races.
It’s compulsory for a trainer to have two-year-olds in the yard; it should be the law that they must make a certain number of entries. What more do they want than this £200,000 guaranteed race? It’s just a breeders’ contest.
All bar the bottom one have Group-1 entries. It’s a Hannon heat – the yard has won five times in nine seasons – and, though on official ratings, Mehmas’ 3lb penalty lets in Blue Point and Intelligence Cross, the winner has carried it for the last two years.
It may all hinge on the July Stakes when Mehmas beat Intelligence Cross (now that 3lb better off) by just half a length, and we know – if only from War Decree this week – that Ballydoyle youngsters improve with racing.
But, on a line through Shamsaya (close to Group 2 class via Nations Alexander), Blue Point could beat them both. He slaughtered Shamsaya ELEVEN lengths at Doncaster, going clear on the bridle.
BETDAQ ORANGE VERDICT (102%): With Blue Point a shade of odds on, I could get 3.55 Intelligence Cross as a first position this morning. The O’Brien fan club will surely close the gap as punting proceeds, and I expected to be stakes saving on Blue Point at better than evens later on.
It’s quite staggering to see the Windsor Castle winner Ardad at 18.5. Something went wrong in the July Stakes behind Mehmas, and the stable romped this last year with Shalaa. It will cost you only a shaving of your percentages in such a low overround to dabble with Ardad to reduced stakes, and he might get second in a tactical race.
CUP QUEST: YOU GET MORE WITH BETDAQ
3.10 Goodwood Cup Winners have come from tight ratings parameters (112 to 116) in the last five seasons and, on official figures, only Pallasator (112) and Sheikhayedroad (113) can hope to challenge Big Orange (117).. unless we can find an improver.
While Big Orange has had the same successful July Meeting prep as when winning this last year, Gold Cup form is usually best in this.
Sheikhayedroad was third at Royal Ascot (Pallasator in rear), swerving all over the place, and his winning form above Group 3 came around two years ago.
The soft ground was against Pallasator at Ascot, and he won the Doncaster Cup last year and Sandown’s Heny 11 this year on a sound surface. Curbyourenthusiasm is on the upgrade, but needs to find another half a stone at least.
And the main danger again for Big Orange may be Quest For More, who made him battle for this, neck and neck, in last year’s duel.
Strangely, for one aged six, he can be regarded as an improver, 13lb better than for winning here at Goodwood last Spring, and clearly much underrated on last year’s result – 109 to Big Orange’s 117 – and a hidden horse, since he spent the rest of last season preparing for a tilt at the Melbourne Cup.
BETDAQ ORANGE VERDICT (104%): Quest for More looks a solid win and place bet at 8.0 early mouse, with Big Orange at 5.1 a bit short alongside him. I can’t fancy a three-year-old (Sword Fighter 6.4; may need some cut) and Curbyourenthusiasm (7.6) is untried at the trip, so you’d be betting on potential. Later on check out the way those prices have gone.
IT’S MARTIN: MANIAC OR MAGIC MEYLER
4.45 Galway Hurdle Now we’ve got Tony Martin at it: he needs three runners and he needs them so badly he goes to the High Court to get one of them Pyromaniac, to post.
My judgment is that the ground is right but the rating is 7lb higher than his winning form; however, he’s only six, so the jury is out.
The last nine winners have been improvers aged six and seven. Five-year-olds have won but rarely ( ack of experience); eight and nine, and they’re far too exposed.
There’s an old saying: yes, but the horse doesn’t know. So it was that Martin’s Ted Veale (nine now) was third last year and Hidden Cyclone fourth at a double-figure age.
The winner that day, Quick Jack, hasn’t raced since, but here is 12lb higher but with a magic claim from Donagh Meyler, who beat 21 others to take the Galway Plate yesterday.
On Spring form, Pyromaniac could just about reverse Killarney placings with Ancient Sands and Time For Mabel, and collateral form with them makes this very tough for Bamako Moriviere, with Willie Mullins having won the race only once, 20 years ago.
The Skeltons planned a devastating double at Market Rasen recently and Superb Story may be hard to beat, if hard to back at only 5.4 this morning, and only a five-years-old
I’ll go with Tony Martin: 8.2 Pyromaniac for judgment day and 14.0 Quick Jack for a Donagh Meyler fairy-tale.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except where stated)
2.00 Goodwood
BET 4.4pts win DWIGHT D, and 3.5pts win and place HIGH SHIELDS
2.35 Goodwood
BET 12pts win INTELLIGENCE CROSS, and (win 20) 1pt win and place ARDAD
3.10 Goodwood
BET 4.2pts win and place (place nap) QUEST FOR MORE
4.45 Galway
BET 4pts win PYROMANIAC, 2.3pts win and place QUICK JACK
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
