DAQMAN GETS SIX BANKERS UP OUT OF SEVEN: Daqman went all in with maximum stakes on Liber Nauticus (WON 4-6) on the first day of the Dante meeting at York yesterday to take his banker naps to 50 points profit at level stakes from six winners out of seven bets in 2013.
SHARE A 35.0 ‘SECRET’ ON BETDAQ IN THE OPENER: ‘Nauticus’ was compensation for two near misses at York: Lethal Force (2nd 16-1), beaten a head, and Lahaag (2nd 9-2), pipped a neck. But that doesn’t stop him going back to the track today with bets at up to 35.0 and 20.0 (twice) on BETDAQ.
Kieren Fallon is riding like a man possessed. His judgment on Society Rock was phenomenal. And today he could axe his way back into the Classic limelight, and clear a path to the Derby on Greatwood.
Even without Telescope, the Dante is a decent-looking race, with Ballydoyle trying to log yet another trial, and it would be good to see something emerge from the undergrowth after the hyping of so much dead wood in recent days.
1.45 York You could say that stalls 13 and 11 led the two sprints yesterday, and paved the way for a double by the 18 draw. In fact, the pace was down the middle but the winners both came with a wet sail up the stands side.
Mass Rally and Society Rock launched their attacks from way back, in no way inhibited by the widest draw of all in both races.
This opener features the last two winners, Judge N’ Jury (2012 from stall 5) and Ancient Cross (2011 from 9). Judge N’ Jury, fourth to Ancient Cross in 2011, last year beat Secret Witness (missed the break) and Magical Macey.
All four have low draws today, with Judge N’ Jury badly off at the weights, so being claimed off, and Ancient Cross having shed a few pounds.
It’s the third time Secret Witness has run twice within 24 hours – he was ‘nowhere’ here yesterday – with form figures for the second run 220, including twice beaten only about a neck, one of them in today’s race.
The hold-up horses among the high numbers in this one are Bedloe’s Island – but he’s never won at this level and prefers the going on top – and Dungannon, who didn’t have the finish last season of his early years and his record suggests he will need the run.
Mister Manannan also prefers top of he ground but, if anything, Jamaican Bolt – back to his best trip here after a good run at Doncaster – would want more rain.
My second choice, Secret Witness, would not want any more but is being ignored at 35.0, this morning, probably because punters don’t expect him to run. I think he will, unless the heavens open.
2.15 York (Middleton Stakes) The very best fillies and mares have won this in the last three years since it was boosted to Group 2 heights – Sariska, Midday, Izzi Top – but only Dalkala has so far won above Listed level in today’s field.
Cubanita is lightly raced and could improve and the quirky Starscope was second in Guineas and Coronation Stakes for last year’s winning trainer.
Both daughters of Selkirk, Cubanita and Starscope would relish further rain, whereas Emirates Queen needs firm ground (she doesn’t even like ‘good’). Ambivalent was being aimed at a race at Haydock in June but maybe takes this in because she is ready earlier than thought.
This is a race without a pace horse and, when this happened in a Group 2 at Longchamp in October, Dalkala took them along and showed determination to hold on.
It’s the sort of performance you can see happening at York, if she is capable of doing it the other way round, left handed as opposed to the sweeping right-hand turns of the Paris track.
2.45 York (Dante Stakes) The Dante is last-chance saloon if anything’s going to beat Dawn Approach in the Epsom Derby.
The race has been an ordinary trial for Ballydoyle – only Cape Blanco (2010) went on to Classic success, in the Irish Derby – but a vital one for Sir Michael Stoute.
Just how vital we will find out at Epsom if the Stoute favourite for today, Telescope, who has to miss the race, fails for lack of this outing.
Telescope has an infection after a skin graze, so is likely to recover in time for the Derby.. but will a racecourse gallop be enough to prime him for the big one?
Not many horses win Classics after an interrupted preparation, so all eyes are now on Windhoek and Greatwood to deliver after their defeat of Ghurair in a blanket finish at Newmarket last month.
But, equally, not many horses win a Derby after three runs in the Spring and Windhoek’s hat–trick, completed in a Listed at the Guineas meeting, was achieved over an 83-rated colt, with the winner veering off a line.
Greatwood will be having his second start and we’ll want to see more improvement in his follow-up than we saw from Windhoek, a lot, lot more to make anything of post-race hype – ‘we were thrilled with that’ – after defeat by a future Listed winner.
Ghurair was the one touted for that Windhoek–Greatwood race (started even money favourite) but he was outpointed by the first two and this switch of emphasis from Guineas to Derby doesn’t look realistic unless he belies both his breeding and his form to date. John Gosden hasn’t got the usual three-year-old depth.
No, it is much more likely that Greatwood steps up from that race but is he here only as deputy to Telescope – both are owned by Highclere – and is he able to stop Indian Chief continuing the O’Brien winning sequence?
Trading Leather is likely to be only a ‘sighter’ for Dawn Approach but Indian Chief has to be feared after the winning Ballydoyle trials sequence of Battle Of Marengo, Ruler Of The World, Magician and Nevis.
It’s no good asking where Indian Chief resides in the pecking order because Ballydoyle won’t know any more than you do until after this race and after final preparations.
I am a Magician man for the Derby so far – handy type and nice action – from the O’Brien chess set, but Indian Chief could be one of those pawns that sneaks through to be crowned just when you think the game is all over.
Secret Number cannot be entirely ruled out, third in the UAE Derby, and we seemingly have a serious Classic test for the first time since the Guineas.
I will take Greatwood, 5.7 in a punter-friendly 103% ‘book’ of the orange offers on BETDAQ this morning, but need to have a saver on Indian Chief, so a value race but not Gold Value because I’m not fully opposing the favourite.
3.15 York (Hambleton Stakes) Four-year-olds (7 out of 10) usually win this, and 6 out of 7 scorers had had at least three runs already in their year.
Those stats shout Es Que Love but I find it hard to shout too loudly for him, with his Listed form to date 0024 and a moderate strike rate, though you have to say that he’s had only two races beyond 7f and won one of them and has missed several engagements for this.
The two other four-year-olds, Fort Bastion and Sound Hearts, are both making their reappearance but both get good reports from the gallops and are said to be stronger this year, as well they should be.
Two For Two would probably have bea en stablemate Anderiego at Thirsk but for being hampered, is better off at the weights today and will like the ease in the ground.
But Andiriego has won twice at York; so has Navajo Chief; and Marcret is dropping back to handicaps from the pattern. He could suddenly step up, having been given a break since his first runs after being gelded.
I have no strong views on this but Es Que Love and Marcret, fluctuating around the 21.0 mark in a 106% list of BETDAQ offers, have to be regarded as gold value, since I am opposing the favourite in backing them.
DAQMAN’S BETS
VALUE BET: 5.3pts win JAMAICAN BOLT and 0.8pts win and place SECRET WITNESS (1.45 York)
VALUE BET: 11.5pts win (nap) DALKALA (2.15 York)
VALUE BET: 6.6pts win GREATWOOD and 2pts win (stakes saver) INDIAN CHIEF (2.45 York)
GOLD VALUE: BET 1.5pts win on each ES QUE LOVE and MARCRET (3.15 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4pts win double DALKALA (2.15 York) and CHURCH FIELD (6.05 Ludlow) plus 2 x 1pts win trebles the same two with both GREATWOOD and INDIAN CHIEF (2.45 York)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: An above average day at York, with all value bets staked to win 30 points.
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