DAQMAN LONE VOICE FOR SHALAA: Daqman stands by his assessment of the red-hot two-year-old Shalaa, with Ladbrokes in the morning headlines, gifting a Classic bet for 2016. Says Daqman: ‘I stand alone, but that’s the only way to win money on the horses.’
DARING NEWBURY NAP IS AT 7.6: In another daring defiance of the form, Daqman naps a 7.6 morning BETDAQ offer at Newbury tonight, as the continuous rain decimates the three English Flat-race cards.
14-1 SHALAA MUST GO IN YOUR ‘BOOK’
I shall accept Ladbrokes’ generous offer. He looks like a sprinter; he acts like a sprinter; and, by golly, he could be a Guineas winner.
Four-times-successful Shalaa is today offered at 14-1 for Newmarket 2016 by Britain’s top bookies, as they echo trainer John Gosden’s words that the target is the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot 2016.
The story is now set in cement that this colt is ‘only a sprinter’, despite the strong messages in his breeding.
Though his sire, Invincible Spirit, won only at 6f, his progeny includes Kingman (Irish 2,000 Guineas), Lawman (French Derby), and Territories, runner-up to Gleneagles in this year’s Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
Another son, Moonlight Cloud, was kept to 6f and 7f for most of his career until taking Group-1 races at a mile at age four and five.
Shalaa is half-brother to a 1m to 1m 4f winner and a 2m hurdler, and I stand by what I said yesterday that we could have another Frankel on our hands.
At this time of year, and throughout the winter, bookmakers offer ridiculous prices about the Classics, rarely justified unless the occasional sequence horse – like Shalaa – continues his reign in the following season.
And I regularly attack the layers around now, with plenty of ammunition to point up the fallacy of betting in the Classics so early.
For instance, among 2,000 Guineas winners this century, Sea The Stars and Refuse To Bend did not come to the fore until September; Golan did not even race until then.
Camelot had his first major test in October; Night Of Thunder did not see a racecourse until October; Makfi not until November!
So, nice to see Ladbrokes warning us that, though falling into line with the other big firms, in order to accommodate the punter, Shalaa comes with a wallet warning: unlikely to run at Newmarket.
My own view is that, until we know what two-year-olds we’ve got, this reverse hype about Shalaa should also come with a betting-health warning.
If I were making up my own ‘book’ of Classic bets for next season, I wouldn’t touch anything in single figures, and 14-1 about the unbeaten Morny winner would be on my list.
7.6 NEWBURY NAP ON A NOVEMBER DAY
BRIGHTON Though 13 had been withdrawn from this rain-soaked seaside venue by 9.30 a.m, punters were left dealing with fields that contained in total only two horses to have already won on ‘soft’ ground.
They are Welsh Inlet (4.45), a 6.0 offer at that time, and French Press (5.15), the last-race favourite. I took the 6.0, covering on that final favourite, as my getting-out stakes.
CHEPSTOW The Welsh card, to be run on ground described as ‘heavy’, had lost seven intended runners.
Local horse Bonjour Steve (4.00) has scored on similar ground and is going for his third win at Chepstow, with the mare Whitecrest another to have succeeded on soft and always a threat in this sort of company.
In the 4.30, Myboyalfie and Sarangoo have both been successful on soft, while Doctor Bong is likely favourite, dropped in grade by a top yard.
But I fancy Soaring Spirits (9.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) to return to form after a break for a yard going great guns right now.
NEWBURY Just five of 25 early withdrawals were from Newbury’s card but it’s an evening meeting and we could lose more, with further rain forecast.
If November (6.10), first time in a handicap off a featherweight, takes to the ground, he could belie his 7.6 offer on BETDAQ. Every pound will count in the mud.
Juncart (6.40), a sprint winner on the soft, has disappointed this season, so takes in this fact-finding mission over a mile.
Juncart is dropped in grade, as is Firmament and Fruit Pastille, but the most reliable runner in the race is Hot Mustard, whose sire gets plenty of soft-ground scorers.
A winner on the soft at Newmarket in July, Conjuring (7.10) is by Showcasing, whose progeny love it when the mud is flying. Conjuring’s yard is two from five in the last fortnight, and 9.4 came out of the hat on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked from 1 to 9; a banker would be 10)
BET 4pts win BONJOUR STEVE (4.00 Chepstow)
BET 2pts win and place SOARING SPIRITS (4.30 Chepstow)
BET 3pts win WELSH INLET (4.45 Brighton) and 2pts win (stakes saver) FRENCH PRESS (5.15 Brighton)
BET 5pts win (nap) NOVEMBER (6.10 Newbury)
BET 5pts win HOT MUSTARD (6.40 Newbury)
BET 3pts win and place CONJURING (7.10 Newbury)
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