SENSATIONAL BETDAQ VALUE: Day 1 at Royal Ascot opens with some amazing offers in the orange totalling in one case 104% where the Total SP of that race can reach 132%
DAQMAN WINS 811 POINTS PROFIT: Do you know a tipster like him? The man who made 811 points profit from 28 winning naps in May? He is Daqman. He is FREE ON BETDAQ, where he’s found value today at 28.0.
DAQMAN IS 36-9 UP ON PRICEWISE: Do you know a tipster who is a league in front of Pricewise? Who has had 36 returns to the Racing Post man’s 9 on the Flat? He is Daqman. He is FREE ON BETDAQ, where he’s found value today at 35.0.
O’BRIEN THE VERRA MAN FOR THE JOB
2.30 Royal Ascot (Queen Anne Stakes) Aidan O’Brien and Richard Hannon, who were responsible for almost half today’s field at the five-day stage, have shared five victories in the last eight years, O’Brien leading 3-2.
He’s won this with 112 and 116 rated, whereas Hannon’s (Canford Cliff and Paco Boy) were 124 and 127. Today Hannon leaves in Toronado (off 125) against O”Brien’s Verrazano (117) who, like last year’s Ballydoyle winner, Declaration Of War, was beaten in the Lockinge.
Mike De Kock’s Soft Falling Rain might be more than 120 rated had he been able to perform in the British Champions Mile at Ascot in October but the soft ground was against him and he was unsighted behind another Hannon miler, Olympic Glory.
He had won the Group 2 in the series, the Joel Stakes, at Newmarket three weeks earlier, though the horse he beat, Montiridge, is only Group 3.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It seems a long time since last summer’s battles (score 1-1) between Toronado and Dawn Approach, and I find it difficult to back a potential champion miler after 300 days’ absence, notwithstanding Team Hannon’s ability to get them right on the day. I shall back the unexposed Verrazano and save on Toronado.
DR NO A ‘YES’ AT HUGE 28.0 ON BETDAQ
3.05 Royal Ascot (Coventry Stakes) This has seen another battle of O’Brien (War Command, Henrythenavigator best) and Hannon (Canford C liffs), with O’Brien 3-2 up in the last seven years.
All five were unbeaten on their way to Ascot, as was Dawn Approach, who was the party pooper for Jim Bolger in 2012.
The draw one-two in five of the six years of big fields since the newly-laid Royal Ascot turf has been 16 beat 20, 17-9, 19-23, 13-16 and 15-13.
Hannon has two high drawn: Kool Kompany (10) and Dr No (16), sandwiching O’Brien’s War Envoy in 11; same sire as War Command.
Adaay, one of the favourites, is by Kodiac, sire of 90 individual two-year-old winners, out of a Royal Applause mare whose daughter Mullionmileanhour was beaten a short-head by Equiano in the Abernant. Must have top of the ground and drawn 12.
Justice Good represents another sire of the moment, Acclamation, and War Envoy is by the sire of War Command and Declaration of War.
Richard Hughes had difficulty – according to Team Hannon – in choosing between the Aussie Rules grey Dr No and Kool Kompany, who beat War Envoy at Naas.
On a line through Toscanini, there is very little on form between Cappella Sansevero and Kool Kompany, who has had 11 winners behind him in his races, closely followed by Justice Good (10).
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: 13 of these have had just one or two starts and any one of them could come on and show the speed necessary for this cavalry charge.
What we do know is that courage and stamina are also needed and, for those attributes, Adaay (stall 12), Cappella Sansevero (13), Dr No (16), Justice Good (2), Kool Kompany (10) and War Envoy (11) have all won over 6f.
From a superb list of only 104% in the BETDAQ orange, as I write (the bookies’ SP Total has been up to 132% for this in the last three seasons). I can get the Hannon pair at 10.0 Kool Kpmpany and a huge 28.0 Dr No
GUERRE ONE OF HOT YOUNG STREAKS
3.45 Royal Ascot (King’s Stand Stakes) It’s all over in less than a minute. Or it has been in the last nine years, the fastest Chineur (57.55 in 2005).
For a three-year-old to win is rare these days; only Equiano on the new Ascot turf. In fact, Chineur was a rare winner at four years of age, with experience to the fore since: one winner aged seven, four at six and two at five have scored since that day.
Why faster? Why more experienced? The probable answer is the international pulling power of the race this century. With one exception the winners from 1988 to 1999 were English; only 5-14 since.
Can Hot Streak change all that? A three-year-old. Yorkshire trained. Only eight runs in his entire racing career: start from the top and, down the card, the runners have raced 20, 21, even 44 starts already.
But, after Aidan O’Brien’s ‘Australia is my best ever’, we now have Kevin Ryan’s ‘best I have trained’ tag on Hot Streak, despite his success with The Great Gatsby in the French Derby.
Sole Power beat Shea Shea, Pearl Secret and Jack Dexter in this last year, and we have two lines of collateral form with Hot Streak: he was half a length and a head behind Sole Power in the Palace House Stakes and half a length in front of Pearl Secret in the Temple.
In fact, though Hot Streak was said to have needed the race in the Palace House, his narrow defeat of Pearl Secret has him a similar length inferior to Sole Power.
Not forgetting another three-year-old in the race, Ballydoyle’s Guerre, who beat the Abbaye winner, Maarek, at Naas, even though Maarek was the one with a prep run and Guerre was making his seasonal debut. Guerre was impressive, going strongly with the pace.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I forecast Hot Streak would be champion sprinter this year though, currently, on the form we know, Sole Power will win from Shea Shea and Hot Streak.
But that is is not allowing for improvement of the three-year-olds over the seven-year-olds and not allowing for the draw, for which any bias may be revealed in the Coventry.
Nor is it allowing for Guerre. We simply don’t know what to make of the form, because Maarek is so much a soft-ground horse. The official handicapper has Maarek on the same 115 as Sole Power.
I can only call the odds, and Guerre looks backable at 12.0. I’ll vote for change and take the three-year-olds to beat the older horses here. But it’s who gets the breaks on the day.
KINGMAN TO WIN MATCH OF THE DAY
4.25 Royal Ascot (St James’s Palace Stakes) This has been a champions’ race, and a punters’ race, with seven out of nine favourites winning, among them Dawn Approach and Frankel.
Aidan O’Brien won three in in a row (2007-9) but War Command has to turn around seven and eight places with the Nemarket 2,000 Guineas one-two, Night Of Thunder and Kingman.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Thousands of words have been written about the third meeting of Kingman and Night Of Thunder, with the score 1-1 after Greenham and Newmarket Guineas.
The Guineas was one of the best for years, the form franked by Derby winners, but was Night Of Thunder fortunate to take advantage of a muddling finish when the jockeys were all watching Australia? Only the r ace will tell us but I’ll have a coward’s banker on Kingman, my only 2- point bet of the day, the others – in BETDAQ value races – are raised to win 40 points.
ASCOT STAKES IS PLINTH PLATFORM
5.00 Royal Ascot (Ascot Stakes) This race will decide the handicap punter’s fate. Snare this (at prices like 33-1, 25-1, 20-1) and you can dine out on it for a season.
I was in trainer Gai Waterhouse’s box last time I won it. Ascot at York (2005). A privileged day because the best professional backer I’ve known (and I’ve known a few), Murray Dwyer, was also there. They were my racing royality (greetings Down Under, my old mate).
Well, I had to keep my end up for the Brits,. So I tipped them Leg Spinner at 14-1 (won 9-1), and it scored a big six, home for all money, that day.
You have to look for something saved up for the race, like Leg Spinner was. I shall be name-dropping again if I find it. This time the name will be Bill Down The Betting Shop.
He’s finally relented and wants to come round to my office this afternoon see ‘see how this BETDAQ thing works.’ Well, Bill, I can tell you this from the start: BETDAQ has a 107% book on this race, as I write over my cornflakes, and the bookmaker take-out in the last three years has come from 128, 129 and 130% overrounds.
You want a powerful young horse (ages four and five have won 8 out of 10) which has done well in the bruising world of hurdles racing. In fact, the winning-trainer’s list looks pure National Hunt: O’Neill, Henderson, Mullins, Pipe, Webber, Martin.
Step forward John Quinn and 35.0 offer in the orange, Agreement, a lightly-raced Graded hurdler who has always wanted the better ground he’ll get today. The Punchestown champion four-year-old Plinth looks good for Ballydoyle at 15.5.
I also like Ray Ward, fifth in the Queens Vase behind Leading Light a year ago, and Cesarewitch runner-up, Waterclock.
A lot depends on the ground for Perfect Heart but he needs improvement as well as showers, since he’s so far won only at class-4 level. Gordon Carter winner and Cesarewitch Trial runner-up, Ballinderry Boy, also needs cut in the ground. Villa Royale and Sutaj can’t be ignored.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Plinth and the mare Villa Royale have their ground for this and are strong finishers. Agreement is a big outsider. That’s my 1-2-3.
I GIVE A HOOT FOR BETDAQ 7.0 OFFERS
5.35 Royal Ascot (Windsor Castle Stakes) Only one horse drawn below 11 has managed to reach the first three in the last four years, with winners from 14, 18, 22 and 28, and six of the last nine placed coming from stalls 20 (four times), 22, 27 and 28.
A result for Justice Good in the Coventry would be a pointer to Haxy (stall 24); a return for Kool Kompany would shout Merdon Castle (in 13) and Adaay would point up Mind Of Madness (14).
Hootenanny, the supposed flying machine from America has gate 25 for the stable of Wesley Ward that won that race in 2009.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The people’s exchange has not yet spoken, as I write. Over my morning coffee, it’s around 7.0 the field. But I think Hootenanny will be shorter; maybe, too, Mubtaghhaa (10.5), an Acclamation, who now gets his ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 40 point, except the Bull’s Eye Bet and the Banker)
BET 10pts win on each VERRAZANO and (stakes saver) TORONADO (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 4.4pts win KOOL KOMPANY and 1.4pts win and place DR NO (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 9pts win HOT STREAK and 3.6pts win GUERRE (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) KINGMAN (4.25 Royal Ascot)
BET 2.75pts win and place PLINTH, 2.4pts win and place VILLA ROYALE, and 1.2pts win and place AGREEMENT (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 8.3pts win HOOTENANNY plus 4pts win and place MUBTAAGHA (5.35 Royal Ascot)
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