DAY-1 CHELTENHAM HEADLINES BEFORE THEY HAPPEN: Daqman is king of the Cheltenham tipsters after his Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle double last year, which included 11-1 from 17.0 (BETDAQ) Rock On Ruby. Here are the rocks on which he bases this year’s first-day bets, including 38.0 and 25.0 big-race punts.
IRISH OPEN WITH A TRUMP CARD: He makes a case for the Irish horse with the French name, ‘trump card’ – Un Atout – to beat the hot favourite, My Tent Or Yours, and become supreme novice.
SIMONSIG SECOND BANKER OF THE YEAR: He rates Simonsig in the Arkle as the day’s banker, with the ground against Overturn. Daqman’s only banker nap this year so far was Chatterbox (WON 5-4)
ZARKANDAR THE NEW CHAMPION: He took a fancy price Binocular for today’s Champion Hurdle but favours Zarkandar now that the ground has changed. Both trainers are bullish.
BOSTON ANGEL HANDICAP SNIP: The cross-country winner is usually a horse beaten in the December equivalent on the course. Bostons Angel is now a snip at the revised weights.
ARTISTE TOPPLES QUEVEGA: Can anything stop an historic five-timer for Quevega in the mares’ hurdle? If anyone can, Nicky Henderson can, and Une Artiste was the value bet on BETDAQ at 8.2 this morning.
1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): The abysmal record of favourites in the last eight years – finishing position 030025347, including three co-favs in 2007 – is a warning against taking too short a price about My Tent Or Yours.
Another red flag is that all previous winners of this race had their last run in a novice hurdle and came that way to this championship which, after all, is for novices.
Not My Tent Or Yours. In fact, much of his reputation hangs on his open-handicap defeat of Cotton Mill at Newbury a month or so back, when the form book says he ‘cruised home.’
That shot his rating up to 162 which creates the illusion of ‘certainty’ at today’s level weights. He now has a rating which compares with Champion Hurdlers Punjabi and Binocular (both won off 163), yet this novice title has been taken with 142 and 147 ratings in recent years.
However, the horse he beat at Newbury, Cotton Mill, is strictly 143 at best on the rating of horses he’s beaten (not what beat him). The third horse home was only a 134 and the fourth, Dark Lover, has since been beaten a similar margin by a 149 horse.
The case of Un Atout (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) is the reverse. He could be given more than his 151 rating on his defeat of Art of Logistics at Naas.
That one is about ‘the same horse’ as Jezki on lines through Waaheb and, also collaterally, Jezki (would prefer better ground) is about the equal of Champagne Fever.
This worked out precisely on December 2, when Jezki beat Champagne Fever a length and a half in receipt of 3lb. My line to form may thus be correct.
JACKPOT BET (to win 40 points): 5.4pts win UN ATOUT at 8.4; stakes saver 2.7pts win MY TENT OR YOURS
2.05 Cheltenham (Arkle Trophy): Overturn’s magnificent motor is best served by a sounder surface and he’s won over hurdles only on good to soft or better, steering clear of the mud.
On soft, he’s returned 42: on better ground, he’s 2112103112. Simonsig is rated 5lb behind him but all surfaces seems to come alike to him, from good to heavy.
Arvika Ligeonniere (holds Baily Green on form), Oscars Well and Benefficient have been taking turns to beat each other in Ireland, and that suggests they’re all of a heap, without a dominant leader.
So, for me, Arvika, who has made more than one costly jumping error and has tended to go right, looks 10lb inferior to the principals on this left-hand championship track.
BANKER (nap) 20 points win SIMONSIG
2.40 Cheltenham (JLT Speciality Chase) Every pound counts up the Prestbury hill and all bar one winner of this in the last decade has come from the bottom half of the handicap, which has kept its shape this year, with a range of 21lb, against the general trend for half that.
The race trend is toward novice winners, though still within a chaser’s peak years of seven to nine (8 out of 10 winners). Four of the last five winners had raced fewer than six times over fences.
One that fits all the stats is Nuts N Bolts, a big strapping beast who gallops all day and was raised more than a stone in 19 days in January-February. A massive horse at a massive price: 38.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning.
With Tony McCoy required by the guv’nor, J P McManus, for Nadiya De La Vega, Richie McLernon has the leg up on Merry King.
McCoy had the right one of Jonjo’s in 2009: remember that amazing ride on Wichita Lineman? But Richie got the advantage last year in a similar situation to todays’.
A P had to partner 11-2 joint favourite Quantitativeeasing off 11st 12lb, while Richie was running loose off 10st 1lb on the 14-1 winner, Alfie Sherrin.
Third and fourth that day, Our Mick and The Package, have good chances of being placed again and Loch Ba (13.5 as I write), schooled and trained to be a Grand National prospect by Henrietta Knight, would not be a surprise winner for his new yard, Mick Channon’s.
My short list is Loch Ba, Merry King, Nuts N Bolts and Our Mick
JACKPOT BETS (to win 30 points): 4.1pts win MERRY KING, 2.4pts win LOCH BA and 0.8pts win and place NUTS N BOLTS, with 1.2pts stakes saver OUR MICK
3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle): Binocular, when third to Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown after an interrupted preparation and an uninspired ride, and Grandouet, when runner-up giving weight to Zarkandar at Wincanton, both put themselves in this race on soft-heavy ground. But both would prefer a sounder surface.
I took 12.0 about Binocular, carried away by a bullish Nicky Henderson (put me down, Nicky!). Now I’m getting all the good vibes from Ditcheat about Zarkandar (5.1 as I write), said to be ‘twice the horse he was last year,’ when he finished fifth after a difficult preparation.
I can’t have Cinders And Ashes or Rock On Ruby on the ground, and Triumph Hurdle winners (Countrywide Flame) rarely come on to take this; just two I think.
JACKPOT BETS (to win 30 points): 7.8pts win ZARKANDAR and already (ante-post) 2.7pts win BINOCULAR at 12.0
4.00 Cheltenham (Cross Country): Enda Bolger, who saddled the two giants of this discipline, Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre, has Arabella Boy perfectly placed at the weights to return him to the winners’ enclosure for the first time since those heady days.
The question-mark over him is: does he stay? We have been robbed of the answer several times: when, making headway, he was brought down in the La Touche, won by Uncle Junior, and both he and Uncle Junior unseated rider in the December cross-country over today’s course and distance, won by Outlaw Pete.
Four of the winners outside the Bolger big two in the last decade had been beaten in that December race, as was Bostons Angel (10.0 on BETDAQ), now 15lb better off with Outlaw Pete for seven lengths. The former RSA winner is the handicap snip of the day.
JACKPOT BETS (to win 30 points): 6.8pts win ARABELLA BOY and 3.3pts win BOSTONS ANGEL
4.40 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle): In her Kempton defeat of Alasi and Kentford Grey Lady – those who came nearest at the weights to Quevega in this race last year – Une Artiste became the biggest threat to the favourite’s championship five-timer today.
At five, she is the same age as was Quevega when the Mullins mare started her sequence, and now has four years on her. Swing Bowler is six but we don’t know if she’ll stay.
Quevega (1.73 this morning) could remain queen yet again and become the greatest Cheltenham sequence horse since Golden Miller but, apart from the years catching up with her, she has to face softer ground than has been seen at the festival in years.
Une Artiste, at 8.2 on BETDAQ as I write, should get you to the final flight with a chance of catching the seemingly uncatchable, and is a better price for a place than is Quevega for the win.
LAY 10pts QUEVEGA
BET (to win 20 points): 2.7pts win and place UNE ARTISTE
5.15 Cheltenham (Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase): Seven-year-olds have put them to the sword in this, with 6 out of 8, and the stables that twice stopped their run are not represented today.
This race has succumbed to the trend for short handicaps, so 24lb difference between winners of this race in the last decade but only 8lb from top to bottom of today’s card.
That makes it hard work for punters – 11 runners have ratings separated by only 2lb – but it’s a big help to the top-weight Colour Squadron.
Carlito Brigante (prefers good ground) has winning form on the course over fences and is fit from a recent spin on the Dundalk polytrack.
Shangani has emerged as a likely lad for this trip during Venetia Williams excellent season but her Howard’s Legacy also stepped up at Wincanton, not disgraced by Opening Batsman, who afterwards took the Grade-3 Racing Plus Chase at Kempton.
Howard’s Legacy followed that over further at Leicester, with Venetia trying to qualify him for two big handicaps on the second day at Cheltenham, The Byrne Group and the Kim Muir.
In fact, the handicapper has yet to make his voice heard, but the meantime 5lb penalty gets Howards Legacy in here with a better chance than the 25.0 offers I see in the BETDAQ orange. He will be one of few with the stamina to stay on up the hill.
BET (to win 20 points): 0.8pts win and place HOWARD’S LEGACY
DAQMAN BETS SUMMARY
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET: 5.4pts win UN ATOUT and 2.7pts win stakes saver) MY TENT OR YOURS (1.30 Cheltenham)
BANKER (SP nap): BET 20pts win SIMONSIG (2.05 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET: 4.1pts win MERRY KING, 2.4pts win LOCH BA and 0.8pts win and place NUTS N BOLTS, with 1.2pts (stakes saver) OUR MICK (2.40 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET: 7.8pts win ZARKANDAR (3.20 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 6.8pts win ARABELLA BOY and 3.3pts win BOSTONS ANGEL (4.00 Cheltenham)
LAY 10pts QUEVEGA and BET 2.7pts win and place UNE ARTISTE (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET (normal 20-point target): 0.8pts win and place HOWARD’S LEGACY (5.15 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW Arvika Ligeonniere (2.05 Cheltenham)
ANTE-POST: BET: 2.7pts win BINOCULAR at 12.0 (3.20 Cheltenham). Loss 5.8pts non-runners Supreme Novice Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham)
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