BUTE A BEAUTY AT BETDAQ ODDS AGAINST: Daqman landed his nap, Uhlan Bute (WON 8-11), yesterday after a gamble from odds against, with 2.3 offers on BETDAQ in the morning.
TODAY: Uhlan Bute had handled heavy ground before and that’s what’s required at Leicester today by the latest Daqman nap, a 2.8 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
TOMORROW: No weather worries tomorrow. It’s the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Kempton Park, with four races lined up by the people’s exchange on a man-made surface.
Start with a winning favourite. That’s the message of the last five days. Despite heavy ground, the opening jumper has gone to the favourite five times in a row and there hasn’t been an NH first-race winner bigger than 15-8 since last Wednesday.
The two jumpers at odds on, Uhlan Bute and Toubeera, both won at Plumpton yesterday on the afternoon before Arsenal made it eight consecutive wins for odds-on shots in the Premier League’s Saturday-through-Monday games.
Did you collect? Or did you kick yourself you weren’t on? There’s certainly such a hardcore of wealthy teams in the top half of the premier table that the bottom half continually struggle to match them for quality players.
I suggest you should apply that to racing. Bet short shots where you know there is a quality team behind them. That’s something I learned long ago.
You only have to check out my list of 23 winning bankers in 2013 (Daqman Library): in place of the horses names, read off their trainers: Henderson, Henderson, Henderson, Mullins, Hannon, Stoute, O’Brien, O’Neill.. and so on.
The message is that you don’t have to bet a sequence of short shots all in one day. After all, each bet in a double, treble or accumulator is a brave one in that you are prepared to roll up ALL your winnings on to the next horse.
But the message of BETDAQ betting is that you continually get value odds and value markets (sub-110%). And I mean almost always with quality racing and as often as not on the everyday.
That means you can afford a daily flutter of doubles, trebles and more. Once you have had a decent punt on the value horses, you can spend a few pounds from the huge margin you have on your side.
To put it simplistically, if you can get 3-1 and 4-1 where the SP is 2-1 and 3-1 and you are betting in tens, then doubles and trebles to single units will not much affect your long-term value reckoning.
And there’s no doubt that the market is currently telling the story, seemingly dictating the results. How’s that then?
Well, one answer is that, with extremes of going – say, heavy, as we have now – a known mudlover will be backed with confidence by connections, possibly in a race where chancers and those with suspect ability on the ground will not be strongly supported.
Best to take an in-depth look at exposed horses to check out their record on a very soft surface. That’s why I am attracted to the veterans’ race at Exeter today (3.40).
We know nearly everything about each horse. I say ‘nearly’ because we can only make an educated guess as to their fitness.
And the unique nature of veterans’ races is that we have to make the decision: has this horse ‘gone’ – deteriorated beyond recall – or is he using this (after all, he may be only 10 years old) to get his form back.
Junior is 7lb better in than when winning from the front on heavy ground 13 months go, but has to give weight all round here, and was a lonely dog on a raft this morning, out to 17.5. Risky.
Pineau De Re is 8lb higher than his last winning form. The extra on his back since that success last Spring seems to have stopped him winning and he hasn’t scored since coming from Ireland. But he loves going right-handed: five wins and seven places, and has been hurdling recently.
Richard’s Sundance Right-hand track essential and CD winner who has scored on heavy ground, winning twice when fresh, as today. First-time cheekpieces for this.
Ballyoliver is from a stable in form but his returns on officially heavy are 3300 and said to be ‘much happier’ on good to soft when successful at Ludlow in the Spring but now only 2lb higher than that winning mark.
Tullamore Dew has not won for three years (losing run now 20) but down a stone in the ratings on a year or so ago and second in the (Graded) Rowland Meyrick last month. Poor form right-handed (0-10) and has never won this far.
Armenian Boy has kept to a soundish surface for more than six years now, and has never won above class 4 in that time. Withdrawn.
Shaking Hands Back-to-back success on heavy a year or so ago but that was in class 4 and he was badly out of form in two December runs.
Alderluck His two wins in the last three years have both come on heavy but both in class 4 and his returns at Exeter are 004 (he’s 1-16 going right-handed).
Triggerman has won only on top of the ground but was third in the Welsh National on heavy and – including his claim – is 17lb below his last winning mark (April 2011), allowing for his being 3lb out of the handicap.
But blinkers didn’t help much over CD last time in his favoured conditions, and he had refused in a similar veterans’ race at Aintree in October.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Ballyoliver and Armenian Boy (withdrawn) are deleted because of the ground. Alderluck and Tullamore Dew don’t seem to like going clockwise. Tullamore is a one-paced sort and maybe flattered by his Wetherby second
Junior, who can be forgiven his blunder over the National fences last time out, should be in his element here, but he’s been out of sorts lately and is well over the betting-weir this morning.
Triggerman is well in but notoriously one-paced. Shaking Hands, like Junior, is unfancied in the market and needs to bounce back.
Pineau De Re has been hurdling, which disguises his chase form, and he has man-of-the-moment Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate.
Richard’s Sundance looks to have been laid out for this, with cheekpieces first time on a track where he has scored three times.
ONE-TWO-THREE: 1 Richard’s Sundance (6.2 on BETDAQ), 2 Pineau De Re (6.0), 3 Tullamore Dew.
BETDAQ MARKETS: At the time of writing, down the Exeter card, race by race, 104%, 104, 108, 106, 108, 107 and 109%.
DAQMAN’S BETS (singles each staked to win 20 each)
BET 7pts win (nap) RAY DIAMOND (12.55 Exeter)
BET 4pts win on each RICHARD’S SUNDANCE and PINEAU DE RE (3.40 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Ray Diamond (12.55 Exeter) with Allow Dallow (3.5 Exeter) and with Richard’s Sundance and Pineau de Re (3.40 Exeter)
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