DAVY DEALS DAQMAN 8-1 WINNER: ‘Davy’s a corker! And That’s A Fact’ was yet another winning headline for Daqman’s column yesterday as jockey Russell of that name landed a Huntingdon double with Saddlers Deal (WON 8-1) and That’s A Fact (WON 7-4), our man finishing 11.90 up on the day.
DOUBLE WHAMMY AT CARLISLE: Daqman spots two costly horses today, one expensive for punters after 32 defeats and the other that cost the owner 800,000 euros. He lays the one at Carlisle in a double-whammy (back one, lay one) and backs the other at Goodwood.
SUNSHINE IS DARWIN’S NATURAL SELECTION
Who’ll get the September sunshine? That’s the question pondered by Aidan O’Brien for the return of Darwin at Group 2 level on Saturday week.
His next race will tell us whether Darwin’s improved effort in the Group-1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, stepped up two grades and facing Kingman and Toronado, was a trick of the track or the misinformation of a slow-run four-horse race.
The handicapper thinks it was for real. Darwin stuck on to Toronado so well that he just missed second place, little more than a length behind the smooth winner, Kingman. And he’s been raised 7lb as a compliment.
That lofts him to top rating in Doncaster’s Park Stakes, in fact level pegging with the three-year-old Mustajeeb, trained by Dermot Weld, even though that one was seven lengths off Kingman in the Irish 2,000 Guineas before winning the Jersey Stakes.
Mustajeeb receives 4lb from Darwin at Donny, whereas Darwin had to give 8lb to Kingman at Goodwood. But Darwin must have a sound surface to be seen at his best. His form with ‘firm’ in the going return is 110123.
Darwin’s alternative to Town Moor on the same day is the Boomerang Stakes at Leopardstown. Joint top-ratings? Darwin and Mustajeeb again. So they seem to dominate these two Group 2s, with the ground determining that one may go one way and one the other, since Mustajeeb’s two Group-3 wins were on good and softish ground.
So it is that Darwin and Mustajeeb could be winners on the same day if the two tracks have different ground. Then both will meet for the ultimate accolade, the Group-1 Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes at Ascot’s big champions’ festival in October.
WAFFLE ON A PLATE AFTER 32 EXCUSES
There’s a lot of waffle written about racing form. None more so for an individual horse than the thousands of words published over his six years and four months about Waffle, most of them excuses.
Excuses in Group 3, in Stewards Cup, Ayr Gold Cup, Great St Wilfrid and 32 more defeats since his sole success first time out in a Leicester maiden.
Now, would you believe, Waffle, who was second twice in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, has descended 30lb and today scrapes the proverbial barrel by racing in a ‘seller’ at Carlisle (3.05).
There’s a treasure of a quote from Fran Berry, his jockey for a big race in 2012, which partly reads: ‘Unfortunate again’ (Again, again, again…)
More witty words about Waffle are entirely unnecessary when you have in the field against him horses called Mission Impossible and Live Dangerously. You couldn’t write the script!
And at least there’s one line of ‘form’ (actually Raving Post Spotlight comment) which is totally accurate: ‘It’s a lifetime since he won a race.’
My verdict? There are three ways to gamble here. One is to lay him. One is to back him. The other – if he wins – is to ring Weatherbys 01933 303080 after the race and claim him!
I laid him to 5 points (at 1.95 in the BETDAQ green) and went for a double whammy with a 5-point win on Live Dangerously (3.95). Just for the craic.. and no excuses!
SOFT GROUND WON’T DAMPEN FLASH FIRE
Here is another owner seeing stars! George Strawbridge must have that kind of headache after paying 800,000 euros for a Sea The Stars filly out of Finsceal Beo, so daughter of a Derby and Arc winner with a dual 1,000 Guineas winner as a mother.
But, at Goodwood (2.45) this afternoon, Too The Stars is trying to earn £3,234 for a class-5 maiden, and not even favourite to do so.
She tried to make all on the soft at Newbury but then so did Soviet Courage in similar conditions at Newmarket, though she was beaten in the end by a John Gosden colt.
Since Gosden also trains Too The Stars, he should have some measure of the favourite. That’s not always the case, but I could get nearly 2-1 on BETDAQ in what seems to be a two-horse race. With just two runs, Too The Stars could be the improver in the field. George certainly hopes so!
Nap of the day is Flash Fire (3.30), a front-runner for Mark Johnston on his favourite track. Well in here, getting 10lb from the top one and with the bottom pair out of the handicap.
That he’s been running, and winning, only on firm ground is not a disadvantage but a bonus, in that he could be better odds because that could be a frightener for punters whereas, as a Shamardal (progeny has huge success on soft-heavy), he should be favoured by the cut in the ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the special bet)
BET 10pts win TOO THE STARS (2.55 Goodwood)
BET 10pts win (nap) FLASH FIRE (3.30 Goodwood)
SPECIAL BET: LAY 5pts WAFFLE and BET 5pts win LIVE DANGEROUSLY (3.05 Carlisle).
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