LINCOLN HANDICAP ABC GUIDE: Daqman analyses the form and stats in his ABC guide for the likely contenders in Saturday’s first big race of the Flat, the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.
TOMORROW: HORSES TO FOLLOW: Building up a horses-to-follow list for the Flat season, why and where to start, featuring other top animals running at Doncaster on Saturday and The Curragh on Sunday.
FORTUNE FAVOURS CARLO IN THE LINCOLN
A Aged four and five (15/20)
B Carries 8st 10lb plus (11 out of 13)
C Won in field of 12 or more (9-10)
D Won beyond a mile (7-10)
E Won in Class 2 or 3 (10 out of 10)
F Placed first run or first six Lincoln (7 out of 10)
G Trained Cole or Haggas (three wins each)
ABCDEF Gm HOPKINS
Won his first three races spread over last season, culminating in the Silver Cambridgeshire, Mange All fourth. Bred to get further. Trainer has had 10 AW winners for a strike rate of 28% this winter.
ABCDEF WHAT ABOUT CARLO
A 10-furlong winner at Epsom, 4lb lower. Last but one on his reappearance in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Trainer has had a recent AW winner. Jimmy Fortune booked.
ABCDE BARAWEEZ
Three wins out of four (disqualified Seaton Delaval), including a double in Ireland, has shot his rating up a stone since last June. Stable having a good run; not want rain.
ABCDE RED AVENGER
Goodwood Mile winner on firm ground. Should benefit from gelding op and run back at Lingfield recently. Stable has modest AW strike rate this winter.
ABDEFG MANGE ALL
Earmarked for this since winning over straight mile at Ascot last July. Runner-up at Doncaster over further since and fourth to Gm Hopkins in Silver Cambrfidgshire.
ABEF MOOHAARIB
Has won three races, including mile handicap at Doncaster last June. Better off but still needs to improve after third to Mange All at Ascot in his next race. Stable has had seven successes this year.
ABF ZARWAAN
Stablemate of Red Avenger. Has not won beyond 6f but runner-up Haydock Silver Bowl (1m, soft) and fifth, well drawn, in the Britannia at Royal Ascot after being bumped.
ACDE MELVIN THE GRATE
Stable currently three from six, with 10 AW winners this winter including double by this one. Beaten twice at Doncaster and sole turf success on the soft at Haydock.
ACEF BROWNSEA BRINK
Completed hat-trick over a mile in 2013 but not cope with higher marks since, though good third Newbury Spring Cup, now 5lb better with the winner, Gabrial’s Kaka, 3lb with the fourth, Ocean Tempest, and more than a stone with Bronze Angel.
ACF INDY
Winner first time at Doncaster two years ago and third there (1m 2f) on the last day, giving weight to the first two.
ABCEF GABRIAL’S KAKA
Sixth when well backed in this last year but 6lb higher now, after winning the Newbury Spring Cup (Brownsea Brink and Ocean Tempest third and fourth).
ABCEF HILLBILLY BOY
Winner over 7f (soft) at Doncaster last Spring and followed up at Newmarket in May. Runner-up on his return over a mile at Lingfield.
ABCEF LINCOLN
On a hat-trick after winning here at Doncaster (7f) and Chester. Highly regarded in his yard which is in good form.
ABF MONDIALISTE
Group-1 placed in 2013 Jean Prat but didn’t break his duck until a mile on the soft at Saint-Cloud last Spring. Bought for big money by a stable going places. Danny Tudhope to ride.
ACD BUCKSTAY
Winner at Kempton Park and third there in London Mile. Still a maiden on turf but ran a cracker in the Cambridgeshire, fourth to Bronze Angel and now 16lb better off.
ACEG DUTCH ART DEALER
On a hat-trick after back-to-back AW wins in the autumn but needs to improve on turf form at a lower level. Needs a few to come out if he is to run.
BCDEF OCEAN TEMPEST
The 2014 Lincoln winner followed up in a Listed at Ascot but mainly highly tried since. Has had six losing races at Meydan this year and has been dropped 7lb on last summer’s form.
BCDEF PENITENT
The 2010 Lincoln winner has afterwards scored six times in the Pattern but has not added a handicap to his CV successes since that day at Doncaster five years ago.
BCDEF STUCCODOR
Dermot Weld says that his Irish Lincolnshire winner will travel over only if the ground is soft.
BCDEF CHATEZ
Beat Zarwaan on the soft in the Haydock Silver Bowl last Spring and 2lb better off here. Has won a hurdle race this winter. Fergus Sweeney rides.
BCDE BRONZE ANGEL
Dual Cambridgeshire winner including on firm ground, and winner and second over a mile at Doncaster. Has never been this high in the handicap but the same was said before he won the Balmoral at Ascot (heavy) in October. Super game.
BCDE GABRIAL
Doncaster Mile winner of 2013 but afterwards a nearly horse at Group level not scoring again on turf until last October at Leicester on the soft.
BCEF BELGIAN BILL
Has won in Dubai this year but, on turf form in England, he’s still living off his Royal Hunt Cup of 2013.
BCEF JACK’S REVENGE
Stablemate of Belgian Bill and the more likely runner, with Jamie Spencer booked. Seventh last year off 4lb lower, and not won since July 2012.
BCDE BOOM AND BUST
Older stablemate of Bronze Angel. Last won in August 2012, and Cambridgeshire third in the same year. His 5lb claimer will take him 17lb below his starting mark last season.
BDE FIRE SHIP
Three times placed in the Pattern last year. Best form in 2013 when beat Gabrial at Pontefract and Belgian Bill at Deauville.
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BANKER: BET 10pts win MIDNIGHT REQUEST (2.10 Southwell)
BANKER: BET 10pts win CYRUS DARIUS (2.30 Hexham)
BANKER: BET 10pts win CHAMPAGNE PRESENT (3.45 Southwell)
BANKER: BET 10pts win ONENIGHTINVIENNA (3.00 Hexham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 3pt win trebles and 1pt win acca the four above
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