DAQMAN HAT-TRICK FOR 25 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman landed a hat-trick yesterday with three winners out of three, no losers, but split stakes on the last because it ran a dead-heat.
Monday hat-trick: profit on the day 25 points
WON 5-4 PRINCE ESCALUS (nap)
WON 11-8 RAAJI
WON 13-8 THAPA Vc (dead heat )
FOUR NAPS OUT OF FIVE: 42 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman’s nap on Prince Escalus yesterday gave him back-to-back best bets for four out of the last five and five from one week of naps
Five winning naps gives Daqman 42.33 profit
WON 5-4 PRINCE ESCALUS (Monday nap)
WON 11-8 CHECKITOUT (Sunday nap)
WON 5-4 FUNAMBULE SIVOLA (Friday nap)
WON 11-4 TOMMY DE VITO (Thursday nap)
WON 4-6 BLUE TRAIL (Tuesday supernap)
DUBLIN FESTIVAL COUNTDOWN: What’s going to win the Irish Gold Cup on Saturday? Where does the winner come from? What effect will it have on the Cheltenham Gold Cup?
DUBLIN FESTIVAL COUNTDOWN
Do I have a Cheltenham system? Not one I can apply at this stage; but I know a man who does.
He checks out the Gold Cup betting after Saturday’s version at Leopardstown and knocks out the Irish winner, if it’s a shortish price. That gives him a lay or leaves him a value bet among others at the front of the market. Or both.
Only one Irish Gold Cup winner has followed up at Cheltenham this century: Sizing John in 2017. Otherwise you have to go back to Jodami and Imperial Call 25 or so years back.
All four Leopardstown gold winners since Sizing John – Kemboy, Delta Work, Bellshill and Edwulf – flopped at Cheltenham. Before that, Carlingford Lough (twice) and Sir Des Champs were both beaten.
Two on this list were around 4-1 for Cheltenham after winning the Irish version, with the winner at Cheltenham available also at around 4-1 in the market immediately afterwards.
The SP of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners since the year 2000 have been 9-4 to 9-1 some 16 times, so you are definitely angling in the right pool. You just need to find the right one among the fancied big fish.
In fact, you might simply opt for a different Irish horse among the well fancied: Don Cossack (2016) and Al Boum Photo (2020) spring to mind at 9-4 and 100-30 SP.
Where does the Irish Gold Cup winner come from? Kemboy (2021) had already raced six times at Leopardstown and was Gold Cup runner-up the previous year.
Like Kemboy, Delta Work (2020) was winner of the Savills Chase at the previous meeting. This year’s Savills scorer? Galvin.
The only winners of a double-figure age to have won since the race began were all previous winners (Carvills Hill, Jodami, Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Carlingford Lough). Could Kemboy join the gang?
Irish Gold Cup (BETDAQ Sportsbook): 3.75 Kemboy, 4.5 Minella Indo, 4.5 Galvin, 5 Frodon, 5.5 Clan Des Obeaux, 6.5 Asterion Forlonge, 9 Tornado Flyer.
⭕ 2.30 Newcastle Donald McCain is just about on a 1 in 3 strike rate over the last couple of weeks (10-32) and whilst that roll of honour doesn’t include Dedanser he should be able to improve those stats in this race.
He ran a solid race at Wetherby last time out when runner-up in a handicap hurdle and the combination of dropping back to maiden company, first time cheekpieces and better ground should all prove positives.
The BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE says the biggest danger is Rowdy Rustler who is another that should be suited by the better ground (he won a point on good). He was a little disappointing however last time out when a beaten favourite at Ayr.
A bigger danger may emerge from one of the lighter raced potential improvers River Meadow and notably Roan who was nibbled at in the market before a promising bumper third on debut at Musselburgh.
WHITTLING FIELD DOWN
⭕ 6.20 Wolverhampton I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back morning market leader Whittle Le Woods. His recent form figures of 35323-212 suggest the layers are in front and he has suffered defeats at 10/11 and evens in two of his last three starts.
I prefer the chance of Tipperary Tiger who was staying on really well when winning over six furlongs at Southwell last time out and should be suited by stepping up in trip.
The Burke yard are in terrific form with 5 winners from their last 14 runners.
BARE FACTS SUGGEST HAT-TRICK
⭕ 7.20 Wolverhampton It would come as no surprise to see the progressive Bare Grils shrug off his 7lb penalty to land a course and distance hat-trick.
He’s made all on both occasions and maybe difficult again to peg back under Daniel Muscutt who rode him last time out.
He just seems to be a totally different horse on the all-weather to the turf and is now 3 from 4 at Wolverhampton (his only defeat coming when the vet reported he was lame).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 8.7pts win (nap) DEDANSER (2.30 Newcastle)
BET 3.6pts win TIPPERARY TIGER (6.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 6.0pts win BARE GRILS (7.20 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.