WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN: Derby-winning tipster Daqman made a nine-point profit on Sunday and 2.5 points yesterday, staying out in front until another big-hitter comes his way.
WON 3-1 KNIGHTSWOOD (Monday)
WON 9-10 GOLIATH (Sunday supernap)
WON evens HAMISH (Goodwood Sunday)
WON 13-2 LAMBOURN (Derby Stakes Saturday)
FORTUNE COOKIES: Though it was his Derby No 1, Lambourn is not among his Fortune Cookies to bank on in future. Surprise winners and those who make all in the Derby don’t pay to follow (see Red Flag below). The performance of the fancied runners on Saturday suggests that it’s a moderate year.
RED FLAG OVER LAMBOURN
FORTUNE COOKIES: Riches to rags is the road you’re on if you follow a winning Derby outsider or one who makes all in the Epsom Classic.
In 28 years, the four biggest winners, at SPs of 16-1, 20-1, 25-1 and 40-1, won only two more races in total.
(2020) Serpentine 25-1 Won a Grade 3 in Australia in 2024.
All form figures after: 440000000202024301404402440
(2018) Masar 16-1 Two runs unplaced in Group-2 races.
All form figures after 00
(2017) Wings Of Eagles 40-1 Just one run; 3rd Irish Derby.
All form-figures after: 3
(1998) High-Rise 20-1 Won a Listed race (Dubai Feb 2000).
All form-figures after: 200203130
Saturday’s winner, Lambourn, started at 13-2 but had been 12-1 leading up to the race, the outsider of three Aidan O’Brien runners. The placed horses finished 50-1 and 28-1.
The common denominator with Serpentine, apart from their being trained for the same connections by O’Brien, is that both made all the running, never saw another rival, and stepped up more than a stone.
Serpentine was retired in Australia four-and-a-half years later with just one more win from 27 starts.
UPDATE: Calandagan is removed from the Fortune Cookies list: in four consecutive races he has not wanted to go past, or not been able to.
*Only three remain: Field Of Gold, Goliath, Map Of Stars.
JOCKEY KEY FOR THE GREY BAY
⭕ 3.00 Salisbury The grey Grenham Bay, placed 11 times (four wins) on AW, has scored only once on turf. That was over this CD on good to soft at Salisbury, 2lb higher than here.
His partner from the one stall today, Oisin Murphy, was the winning jockey that day out of gate 2, and their overall form together is: 110201.
TEMPTED CAN TASTE THE CREPE
⭕ 4.30 Salisbury All winners of this 1m 2f handicap in the last decade have been three-year-olds coming out of single-figure stalls, seven of them from 2, 3, 4.
Those stats deliver strong confidence votes for Tempted. So does her late finish to win at Wolverhampton over shorter at the beginning of May after five months off.
A few days earlier, Crepe Suzette also scored at Wolver under Robert Havlin, and third and fourth have both won since.
SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH
⭕ 7.10 Catterick I can find only one previous runner at Catterick for the burgeoning James Owen yard at Newmarket . It was on May 30. And it won.
Little Keilee could make it 2-2 under Hollie Doyle this evening on the mare’s debut for the stable after a long career in Ireland in which 7f and a bit of cut in the ground always helped.
Miss Willows is 10lb higher than for her success over CD here in April but she’s likely to tow the low numbers.
That boosts Highfield Sunshine’s chance out of gate 4. She’s lightly raced, knocking on the door here the last day for the Jm Jungle stable of John and Sean Quinn.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.00 Salisbury (win 30, nap)
BET 5pts win GRENHAM BAY
4.30 Salisbury (win 21, win 10)
BET 3pts win TEMPTED
BET 5pts win CREPE SUZETTE
7.10 Catterick (win 18)
BET 5pts win LITTLE KEILEE
BET 3pts win HIGHFIELD SUNSHINE
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