GAMBLE LANDS BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman was in on yesterday’s early gamble, Le Mercurey (WON 4-5 from odds against on BETDAQ), so landing back-to-back naps following Altior (WON 2-1). That made it six best bets up from the last nine: naps form 113211011.
TODAY Daqman looks at stakes and staking plans and reveals how to bet and win on value bets. TOMORROW: Daqman’s pick of five meetings.
HOW TO BET AND WIN: DAQMAN REPLY TO CRITICS
Q: Why do you change stakes?
I change the profit target, and modify the strength of my bets, according to the quality of the racing. If you bet with the same stake you will not be allowing for the levels of quality or modifying your confidence in the bet.
When there’s poor-quality racing, you can’t trust the horses, and you don’t expect to win very easily; so bet to a low profit yield.
You can have more confidence in better quality horses in better races, so increase the yield potential to win 20, 30 or even 50 (bull’s-eye) or 100 (ton-up).
But all the while, you must be thinking of the longer term. If I’m dealing with bankers, I have shown in this column that I need a 72% strike-rate and a change in strength from 10 to 20, 30, even 40 points, to make my betting worthwhile.
With big-odds bull’s-eye bets, I need only win once or twice in 20 bets – in fact, I do much better than that – depending on the price (see below: What is the best staking plan?)
Q: What is your level-stakes profit in 2015?
A: I haven’t the faintest idea. My tips are such a mixture of disciplines and stakes. I may test a new method to level-stakes, or put a recent sequence of bets under the microscope that way. And so should you.
But I’ve made it clear time and again that my bets are long term and in different categories (bankers, lays, bull’s-eye bets) and are different strengths for differing qualities of race meeting, so it would be absurd to put them all together as if they have equal chances of winning.
BETDAQ betting is modern betting, not old-fashioned pick-a-fancy-a-race punting, blind to the value in the price. This leads the man in the street into debt in the betting shop, and makes him so frustrated and angry that he wildly backs more and more losers.
BETDAQ gives you the chance to win a RACE not a bet, with various positions and trades open to you in markets from the night before until well into the race itself.
If you want to rely on one only category of betting, then respect any bit of help you can get to win money in that category (that’s where I come in, and anyone else you can trust).
Keep a record of your bets and see whether they are making a profit on your stakes and, by all means, test them on equal (level) investments, but then your job is to decide how you can improve on the returns by varying your approach.
So, if indeed you are a one-horse punter, I should be the one asking YOU the question: what is your level-stakes profit in 2015?
I hope you will reply: level stakes wouldn’t give a proper assessment of my one-in-four strike-rate at Ascot compared with my one-in-10 at Brighton. No, indeed.
Q: What is the best staking plan?
A: As I’ve said, betting to win a RACE requires you to play to the different offers available; back some, lay some, until you are creating a profit margin.
But, if you mean, the old-fashioned way on a selective progression of single-staked horses, the only method is to relate your bets to value, and stake accordingly.
First you should know what price you want. Then have the courage not to bet if you’re being offered shorter than your required price. You are halfway there.
But the really big killings by professional value-hunters has been made by a value-staking plan.
Here’s what you do. Decide on a fixed profit per horse. Example: to win 100 points. Now decide what price you want.
You want 10-1? Then your stake should be 10 points (10 x 10 = 100). But what if you are offered 20-1?
That only requires 5 points to win, surely a saving. No, what you should do is KEEP the original stake, and give yourself a double bonus.
The first bonus is that you have 20-1 when you wanted 10-1. The second bonus is that, if you keep your original 10-point stake, you’ll win 200 instead of 100. That puts a silly saving of 5 points into perspective.
Since you are betting in the long term, in theory you can expect around one winner in 10 (if your pricing up is right), but if BETDAQ layers keep on offering you double (20-1), and you keep on getting one winner in 10, as you should, then you are, literally, on double your money and making your own fortune.
Q: Why do you challenge Pricewise and no one else?
A: Public tipping is so low key nowadays, I don’t know anyone else in the Press-and-published domain that tips exclusively in most of the main feature races, except some paid-for tipping services (Daqman is entirely free). Second reason, Pricewise claims to be on the same path as my own search for value.
Q: Don’t you have more bets than Pricewise?
A: Sometimes. If Pricewise is right and he’s getting massive value from the bookmaker – as I am on
BETDAQ – he should have enough ‘overs’ in a race to spend on another runner and secure more certain victory (as I’ve said, it’s winning the race that counts).
If his big-odds bets are genuinely available, why not do some of them win and place? After all, a place at 20-1 would be close on a 5-1 winner!
Why does he bet level stakes all the time? Does he not have different levels of confidence in different horses in differing betting conditions, some deserving higher/lower stakes?
If he’s betting such big odds, and is snubbing the favourite, why not lay that favourite on BETDAQ?
For the record, Daqman has so far had 15 bets, seven wins (some 47% strike rate) in races nominated by Pricewise in the NH season proper. Pricewise has had 11 bets, one win (around 9%).
Pricewise profit/loss at recommended prices (to one point stake): loss 4 points. Daqman profit/loss to fixed-profit yields at recommended BETDAQ prices: profit 112 points.
SHOWTIME TO STAR ON MATINEE CARD
11.40 Lingfield start…….. the Cornflakes have only just been consumed.
It looks a horrid card punting wise, but as mentioned above it’s about using BETDAQ to your advantage on a race by race basis and remembering: “When there’s poor-quality racing, you can’t trust the horses”.
With this in mind, I’m try a small BETDAQ place bet on Showtime Star in the 1.15 six furlong sprint. Many will be put off by a poor run last time out but that was on the turf at Brighton and he had previously made all to win over course and distance here. He’s up 3lb since that win but gets pole position in stall one today and Gay Kelleway has had two winners from her last four runners.
At around 3.5 a place I’m in.
OSCAR WATCH OUT FOR SIERRA AT FOXTROT
Six races on the afternoon BAGS would at least guarantee 36 runners – but at Fakenham this afternoon just 32 contest the six-race card and with the ground at good to soft that can’t be blamed.
Fortunately, as small field cards go, the racing is quite competitive and in the mares handicap hurdle at 3.15pm I’m going with the top weight Shaky Gift to gain her revenge over the hat-trick seeking Oscar Jane.
‘Oscar’ had ‘Shaky’ 8 3/4 lengths back in third when winning over a shorter trip here but was in receipt of 23lb that day and there is a dramatic 17lb turn around in the weights today which should see a different result.
I always like to have something ‘else’ up my sleeve, rather than weight difference alone, and an additional positive is that Oscar Jane’s wins have come on good ground and historically she hasn’t been as effective with give in the ground.
HOT TIP FOR THE CLOSING SOUTHWELL BUMPER
At Southwell Capard King is back…. Capard ‘who’ I hear you ask ?? The horse that gave AP his final win over the jumps – but AP being AP then went on to win on the flat !! He heads the weights in the 12.55 but Jonjo’s runners are generally not running too well at the moment and it’s a race to watch for me.
All bar one of the runners in the closing bumper at Southwell has at least one run, so, unusually for this type of event, we do at least get the chance to compare some form. Relight The Fire looks the best of the market principals. He was a course and distance runner-up, at 33/1, back in April. He was beaten by Younevercall who has gone on to win at Uttoxeter and was desperately unlucky when falling at the last with the race in the bag at Huntingdon last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 4pts place SHOWTIME STAR (1.15 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win (nap) SHAKY GIFT (3.15 Fakenham)
BET 5pts win RELIGHT THE FIRE (3.35 Southwell)
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