THE PUNTER KNOWS THE ANSWERS: Bad weather, bad horses and meetings you don’t do well at; these are the likely reasons for losing stakes. But the punter holds the answers himself, says Daqman in his column today.
DAQMAN FINISHES IN FRONT AGAIN: The Daqman daily staking plan finished in profit yet again yesterday, when winning returns focused on his nap, Almufeed (WON 10-11), a 2.5 BETDAQ offer in the morning.
KEEPING TRACK OF PROFITS
Where to stake wisely? The answer, of course, is where you win money! You should keep a record of your bets and list the tracks where you do well.
I’m looking forward to the next two weekends because Ascot (on Saturday) and both Cheltenham and Doncaster (Saturday week) are high on my own list.
Daqman is leading Pricewise 21-12 with a profit on all bets of 52 points at level stakes, and I recently published in this column some of the 21 wins.
In fact, the Daqman bets made much bigger profits at recommended stakes, because some of them – at meetings I like and at big BETDAQ value – were staked to win 50 points or, with shorter offers, had higher stakes than the usual ‘win 10.’
Cheltenham 3; Doncaster, Newcastle and Plumpton (2 each); Sandown and Ascot were the winningmost tracks in that winners list.
It’s no coincidence that, over the years, my best tracks for winners by a country mile are Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham and Sandown Park because I find that I get best results from quality races.
That’s the ‘where to’ of staking. The ‘how to’ is just as simple, and is in two parts. The first I’ve just explained: to keep a level head but look for BETDAQ value at meetings where you do well and increase your investment.
Equally, it’s important to reduce your stakes where your returns are somewhere between minimal and hopeless.
For instance, I confess that I can’t pick a winner at Brighton on the Flat where, incidentally, Ascot is a long, long way clear as my winningmost track over the years.
Secondly, as in weekday Daqman, keep your bets low at the gaffe tracks, try to modify the stakes so that you get a return with just one winner.
GET OOT MA WAY
⭕ 1.25 Newcastle The action switches back to the jumps at Newcastle on Tuesday where the ground is good to soft.
The second race on the card – a two mile handicap hurdle – looks very competitive at first glance but running through the field many of the runners appear to need some relief from the handicapper and are struggling for form.
The exception is Oot Ma Way who was a winner on the flat here at Newcastle and seemed to show a lot more on her latest start over hurdles at Musselburgh to suggest she might be well in here on handicap debut. Despite being sent off a 50/1 chance she chased home Inca Prince to finish second and the third from that race gave the form a boost with a narrow second next time up.
She starts off on a mark of 100 and won’t be anything like 50/1 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE today but I think will go close.
Main danger has to be Kihavah – however this one is up 3lb for finishing second at Wetherby last time out where he hung left in the closing stages and in all probability through the race away.
GOOD CASE FOR CARAUSIUS
⭕ 6.20 Southwell As I’ve previously mentioned, course form is holding up well on Southwell’s new Tapeta surface based on the early evidence and Carausius can further boost that trend further by becoming the first hat-trick winner at the ‘new’ Southwell.
The Charles Hills trained runner won in quick succession in December by decent margins leaving his turf form well and truly behind.
A further 6lb penalty is unlikely to halt his progress in this company where Soaring Star and Shake A Leg look the most likely to again fill podium spots.
FIRCOMBE HALL AGAIN
⭕ 7.50 Southwell An ultra competitive six furlong handicap concludes Tuesday’s proceedings and I thought Fircombe Hall was a speculative play to follow up on his recent Newcastle success.
He won nicely at Newcastle last time out and whilst the 5lb hike will make things tougher I think he was value for a lot more than the official winning margin of 1 3/4 lengths at Newcastle.
He was beaten twice here last year but that was ‘old’ Southwell and given the surface change I think the Newcastle form is now a much stronger barometer.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.3pts win OOT MA WAY (1.25 Newcastle)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) CARAUSIUS (6.20 Southwell)
BET 1.9pts win FIRCOMBE HALL (7.50 Southwell)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.