9-1 WINNER AT 11.5 ON BETDAQ: Daqman yesterday found a soft spot in the layers’ armour. They had overlooked Rural Celebration’s love of soft ground. She won at 9-1 (nominated at 11.5 on BETDAQ). Daqman tells you more about such ‘hidden horses’ in his column today.
TRY A DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: Daqman has a small-stakes yankee today, with the nap at Musselburgh. Tomorrow he looks at stables likely to score in the second half of the season. On Thursday is his King George ABC Guide.
‘HIDDEN HORSE’ BRINGS BIG-ODDS CELEBRATION
Face facts: racing is now run in two divisions. Our graded racing has Group 1, 2, 3 and Listed in the Pattern; then handicaps and conditions races at levels 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. But the old golden rule is now diamond even platinum.
It is this: horses in the bottom three categories, below class-3, cannot be trusted. You simply don’t know when these lower-grade animals will run to their best. Class 3 was Class C when this rule was taught to me. Now ‘never bet below C level’ is a borderline for betting that has become ever more hazardous to cross.
But you still need to make your border patrol, being on the look-out for ‘plots’ and ‘jobs’, and ‘hidden’ or ‘disguised’ horses down in the lower grades.
I shall continue with my winning formulae for class 3 right up to Group 1 but will add the ‘hidden horse’ whenever I can find one at the lower levels:
TON-UP (staked to win 100) and BULL’S-EYE (win 50) BETS in the big handicaps.
DIAMOND, GOLD and SILVER BANKERS for 40, 30 and 20 point stakes respectively on the nap (returns at SP)
NAP (to win 20 points) the best bet on an ordinary day or a banker which is best of the day (there might be more than one)
LAY – usually a favourite – is a horse to oppose despite its short price
DOUBLE WHAMMY: A bet and a lay in the same race (see note below)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: A win bet, a lay, and a place bet in the same race. In future, lays in the ‘whammy races’ are staked to cover the win and place investment.
HIDDEN HORSE: The hidden or ‘disguised’ horse is one better than the bare form or running in circumstances which give it a rare opportunity at big offers.
If the horse seems to be targeted at the race, I might call it a ‘plot’ horse; if there’s a canny jockey booking, it might be a ‘job horse.’ If punters have given it up, it might be the ‘forgotten horse.’ Whatever the epithet, its price will be ‘wrong’.
We’ve found several disguised horses at higher levels, particularly in handicaps, in the first half of the season. But here are three examples of horses hugely overpriced because ‘hidden’ in a low-grade heat; all have been tipped by this column:
+WON 16-1 Czech It Out (class 4, Goodwood, May, form 130420, beaten short-head in the race last year, laid out for this by local trainer, write yourself a Czech!) Amanda Perrett
+WON 10-1 Strictly The One (class 6, Bath, July, form U00300, first-time blinkers, tongue-tie, top jockey booked, had prep run, local trainer on the up) Neil Mulholland
+WON 9-1 Rural Celebration (class 4 Ayr, yesterday, form 100400, two out of two on soft, trainer in top form) David O’Meara
Notice I am keen to note the trainers for their skill and judgement in placing not-so-special horses to win in lowly races. These guys are big friends of yours; believe it!
Watch for more of them as our ‘hidden horses’ start out later this week, and put them on your Christmas-card list.
ONLY HEADLESS BACKERS FOLLOW THE HYPE
While I’m talking the lingo of horses ‘disguised’ in the form book, and of ‘jobs’ and ‘plots’, here is more Daqman language which has crept into the column:
Betting weir: The offers for a horse are far too big, well over the top; they don’t make sense. Keep clear.
Bridesmaid: Often on the premises without taking the bouquet or the cigar (i.e. a horse often placed without winning)
Early mouse: A price available for those hunting for offers when the market was young (see ‘taking a position’)
Edge: Statistics, circumstances or information that appear to give the backer an advantage (e.g. the draw, the going)
Future ratings: A revised assessment where other factors are added to the base rating – plus or minus – for the going, distance, stats etc.
Glass horse: A horse with problems that is hard to keep sound and runs rarely.
Hyped horse: The Press has gone overboard and the horse is a shorter price than it should be. See ‘lemmings.’
Improver: Young horse on the upgrade, not yet highly rated but could progress as the older, or early-season, horse’s abilities fade.
Lemmings: ‘Headless’ or ‘blind’ backers who follow the hype or follow high-profile tipsters who have a big reputation but precious few winners to show for it.
Lonely Dog on a raft: Offers about a horse are drifting all the time. He’s heading for the betting weir. No one’s barking these odds!
The Moral: The horse that deserves most credit for a race; for example, one beaten narrowly, despite giving weight to the winner.
Overs: If you had a bet at a much bigger price than the horse is now, the difference between the two prices is the ‘overs’ (an early bet before a gamble, or an ante-post bet, would give you an enviable ‘early position’. See ‘taking a position’). More about this another time.
Points: Notional stake on a race, where a point can mean any unit of stake at your discretion, whether a pound, £10 or £100.
Pricing up: Assessing the percentage probability of each horse and translating that to odds, so that you can compare your opinion of its real chance with offers on Betdaq. You’re doing this to try to find a ‘wrong price.’
Taking a Position: The first bet on a race, which will determine whether further bets are needed to improve on, or cover, the position you’ve put yourself in. You’re usually hoping to get some ‘overs.’
Stand-out: The best horse in the race, particularly when at a value price.
W6times: Waited with, will win when wanted.
Winner by default: Past form: when other horses failed to perform to their best. Today-race analysis: a selection where the rest of the field, or its nearest market rivals, are unsuited by the distance or conditions, or both.
LONGSHADOW NAPPED AT MUSSELBURGH
3.30 Ffos Las The Racing Post tips from the stable centres has always been casual and scant. Dave Edwards has Pharmaceutical running on AW at Ffos Las today. At least James Burn isn’t jumping at Wetherby.
If you ignore Easy Tiger’s Sandown sixth (ran wide) in a higher grade, he could be the three-year-old improver here: he was 4.2 second favourite early mouse on BETDAQ, 6.8 bar two.
4.45 Musselburgh This is the sort of thing you are up against in low-level racing: the horse going for a hat-trick in this, La Bacquetteuse, is now aged 10; the 2012 winner, Jan Smuts, is favourite but a bridesmaid with five seconds in a row, though in fact has finished in front of La Bacquetteuse three times since May.
Hidden Justice is another regular bridesmaid: one win but eight places since 2011. If you play the nine of hearts (Neuf Des Coeurs) you risk her not getting the trip.
I think CD-winner Longshadow is the pick of the race, despite topweight, raised in class since his (hampered) fourth at Newcastle in May. Offers of 5.5. taken.
7.35 Wetherby Lady Sioux has improved just a pound short of a stone since March and could again get the better of See Vermont. She won over the stiff Beverley five, so this extra half-furlong should suit: 7.2 on BETDAQ as I write.
9.20 Chelmsford Duke Street made all at Wolverhampton recently and, as an eight-lengths winner, will have most punters cramping his price.
But the race was run in a slow time and he has to last out another two furlongs today. Atalan may get him.
Atalan is also unexposed at the trip, or not certain to get it – depending on whose side you’re on! – but I think the way he won here in May, coming back for more, and with Richard Hughes in the saddle, he could resume his improvement over this 2m.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win EASY TIGER (3.30 Ffos Las)
BET 7pts win (nap) LONGSHADOW (4.45 Musselburgh)
BET 3pts win LADY SIOUX (7.35 Wetherby)
BET 7pts win ATALAN (9.20 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: 0.5pts win yankee the four above
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