THE BANKER WINS IT LIKE A MAN! Daqman has a 50% strike-rate with his bankers after The Tourard Man (WON 10-11) under Richard Johnson staved off Tony McCoy in a champion finish at Southwell yesterday.
TODAY: TINGLE CREEK ABC CHECK: Daqman had the Hennessy winner, Many Clouds, ticking all the boxes in his ABC analysis last week but chose the wrong one for his individual bets. Today he looks at Saturday’s Tingle Creek probables.
TOMORROW: BECHER CHASE GUIDE: Tomorrow he will put the Becher Chase under his microscope, checking out what his preview hopes Balbriggan and Benbens are up against.
GOD’S OWN LOOKS A HORSE GOING PLACES
It’s a sub-standard Tingle Creek. Saturday’s Sandown big race is composed of runners below the ratings level of the last decade, no Master Minded (186) or Kauto Star (176) from what we’ll remember as a golden age of two-mile chasers.
But that makes for an open betting race, with around 10 possible runners in the parameter 151 to 163. To be fair, Kauto Star was only a 150 first time he won it.. so a star could yet be born.
A Aged five, six or seven (8 out of 9)
B Already won a Grade 1 (9 out of 10)
C Rated 167 to 179 (7 out of 10)
D French or Irish bred (8 out of 10)
X Only one horse has a rating (C above) normally required for this, so I have marked those running off more than 160 with an X.
ABDX Balder Succes
Poor effort in Hinterland’s Henry VIII on this card a year ago but spectacular leap at the last won him the Maghull at Aintree.
Balder has had no ‘succes’ when tackling God’s Own. That one beat him in the Punchestown Ryanair – though the jockey was blamed for using him up early – and on their return at Exeter, though Balder Succes had to give the winner 7lb that day.
ABDX God’s Own
Officially, still a novice and could run in the Henry VIII again on the same Saturday card but more likely to attempt a hat-trick over Balder Succes with that one getting 7lb to make up the five lengths that separated them in the Haldon Gold Cup.
God’s Own moved strongly at Exeter (Pepite Rose, Oscar Hill and Somersby behind, with Hinterland pulled up) and looks a horse going places.
ABD Ballycasey
RSA fourth and Punchestown Champion Novice Chase runner-up, he hasn’t raced at this trip for more than a year but was back to his best with a flying start to the season at Gowran Park (2m 4f).
One of three (the two others are Twinlight and Felix Yonger) for Willie Mullins, who describes this drop back in trip as ‘interesting.’
ABD Hinterland
Some would say that Hinterland is a better horse than Sire De Grugy (won the Henry VIII in a faster time than Sire De Grugy won the Tingle Creek) and that he might have been placed in the Champion Chase (brought down when moving into contention).
But what makes Hinterland a nearly horse thus far is his propensity to break blood-vessels, and that’s what spoiled his chance behind Balder Succes at Aintree and behind God’s Own at Exeter on his return. Has all the credentials if he can be held together.
ADX Twinlight
Won the Hilly Way a year ago and second in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse before being out of his depth at the Punchestown festival behind Sizing Europe. Cruised to an easy victory on his return but remains on the mark he raced off in the Spring.
AD Claret Cloak
His thirds in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and the Red Rum Chase at Aintree would normally be short of the class to win this, and he was 10 lengths off Hinterland for the Henry V111 Chase at Sandown a year back.
AD Dodging Bullets
Beaten only five lengths when fourth in the Arkle. A long way last to Uxizandre afterwards at Aintree, when tried at 2m 4f, but was only two lengths behind that one, back to 2m, to start his new season.
AD Pepite Rose
Tough Venetia Williams mare who seems to have been around forever, with 33 starts on her CV, despite being only seven.
Her second in the Celebration Chase in April over this CD, getting to within about three lengths of the Champion Chase winner was a breeders’ dream. Started off well behind God’s Own at Exeter.
AD Vukovar
Only five-years-old, same age as Kauto Star when he first won this. Made all the running at Newbury last Christmas but only seventh in the Golden Miller at Cheltenham. Needs a big step forward but that’s not impossible.
AD Third Intention
His Ascot third to O’Faolain’s Boy (RSA winner) and Many Clouds (just won the Hennessy) makes him look a solid sort. That was 3m but travelled and jumped well to score on his reappearance over 2m at Haydock
BCDX Somersby
Five years now since he won the Henry VIII on this card but as good as ever when dividing Al Ferof and Wishfull Thinking on his reappearance at Ascot. Never an easy horse to win with, he’s 11 in less than a month’s time.
BCD Wishfull Thinking
And this one will be 12 on January 1. Another who belied his years with a cracking start to the new campaign, 12 lengths winner of the Old Roan Chase at Aintree (2m 4f), Uxizandre fourth. Fifth in 2011 Tingle Creek, and third over CD to Sire De Grugy in Celebration Chase (April 2013).
BD Oscar Whisky
Nine now but late-comer to steeplechasing. Novice-chase hat-trick started at this time last year was completed at Sandown and he ran up to Uxizandre at Aintree.
Breathing op proved successful when fourth in PP Gold Cup last month but has only raced over as short as 2m in his younger days in a bumper. ‘His stamina will be needed in this this,’ says trainer Nicky Henderson.
D Felix Yonger
Won three novice chases in a row at this time a year or so ago but consistently fell short after, fourth at Cheltenham and again at Punchestown festivals. Decent run back but handicapper has revised his rating downwards.
ROLL OVER FOR PLOT HORSE KINGSMERE
2.10 Ludlow (Boyne Cup) Roll The Dice and Sin Bin are both better horses than their bare form suggests. The ground has come right for Sin Bin, though this is a big ask, since he has won neither a hurdle nor a chase.
Front-running Roll The Dice, ‘all wrong’ last season, has been stepped up in trip again, after a couple of mistakes cost him his reappearance race at Exeter.
Dreams Of Theatre (not so good over fences as hurdles) and Valleyofmilan will also appreciate the drying surface. But Dreamsoftheatre and Sin Bin were well behind Gorsky Island and Abbeygrey (better off at the weights here) over CD last month.
Freckle Face, Ifyousayso and Lamboro Lad (dropped in grade) all have to bounce back, and the most likely winners are Roll The Dice and Kingsmere.
Kingsmere reverts to chases (form 2110 still standing) for the first time in nearly 14 months, since when he’s gone close over hurdles on today’s course. Trainer Henry Daly won the race last year and this looks like a bit of a plot.
The mares’ handicap hurdle (1.40) is always won by a four or five year old, which suggests that we can eliminate nearly half the field.
I saw it between Pass The Time and little Mystery Drama on form, though it’s no mystery that she has lacked pace before on better ground and may need some rain.
Pass The Time is back to her winning distance, has had a run back and is different class to these on a going day, having raced earlier in the year at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals after her fourth to Annie Power at Doncaster.
My man in the long grass whispers that Don’t Be (1.30 Lingfield) is a potential sequence horse for Sir Mark Prescott – don’t worry that she’s topweight; it’s a shortish handicap – and that Silver Mirage (4.20 Kempton) is going to paddocks after this (on Her Majesty’s service).
DAQMAN’S BETS Stakes are according to the strength of the bet, from 1 point to 10 points, with 10 a banker stake, naps from 6 to 9 and outsiders from 1 to 4. A 10-point banker is automatically the nap (best of the day).
BET 5pts win DON’T BE (1.30 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win (nap) PASS THE TIME (1.40 Ludlow)
BET 5pts win ROLL THE DICE and 3pts win KINGSMERE (2.10 Ludlow)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Don’t Be (1.30 Lingfield), Pass The Time (1.40 Ludlow) and Silver Mirage (4.20 Kempton)
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