THE FAMOUS GRAND NATIONAL ABC: Daqman picked the Grand National runner-up last year at 39.0 on BETDAQ after having the third horse home at 60.0 in 2012. And he had the 98.0 third in Monday’s Irish Grand National. Now he hopes to see one of his 29.0 and 46.0 ante-post bets for Aintree go one better on Saturday. All 40 possible runners and the first five reserves are listed in his ABC Guide today.
YES, AINTREE STARTS TOMORROW: Check them out, horse by horse, and expect one more bet on the day on Saturday, when ground conditions are known. Look out for tomorrow’s analysis of the start of the three-day meeting at Aintree.
FOUR FLAT MEETINGS: Don’t miss Daqman’s tips from the four Flat meetings today. Find them at the foot of the National ABC guide.
ROCKY PACKS MORE NATIONAL PUNCH THIS YEAR
4.15 Liverpool, Saturday (The Grand National) I have two bets in the race, placed on February 19 in the BETDAQ orange before I prepared this ABC. Interesting that they come out first and 10th in the list.
They were 3.5pts win ROCKY CREEK (to win 100) at 29.0 and 2.2pts win NIGHT IN MILAN (to win 100) at 46.0. They traded at 11.0 and 29.0 respectively last time I checked my BETDAQ ante-post orange, but as low as 8-1 and 20-1 in places with bookmakers.
A: 10 of the last 11 winners had won or been placed over around 3m 4f plus or in the Newbury Hennessy or Irish National
B: 9 of the last 11 had already jumped the National fences
C: Aged 9 to 11 have won 10 out of 10. Of 138 runners outside that age range, only one has won in the last 11 years
D: Six of the last seven winners had already run in a Graded chase
E: Winners carried 10st 6lb to 11st 6lb (11/12)
X-Factor: Has never fallen or unseated
ABCDEX Rocky Creek
Hennessy Gold Cup runner-up in 2013 was fifth in last year’s Grand National off 2lb higher than on Saturday, ridden aggressively but tiring only at the second last.
Looked to have a new piston in his engine when powering home off top weight in the Kempton Chase last month after a breathing op. That hiked him to 163 but too late to affect his 154 National mark.
ABCDE Across The Bay
Another who has already set the race alight, as long-time leader in 2013 and when trying the same tactics last year, clear when hampered and brought to a virtual standstill.
Had been beaten a total of 187 lengths in three starts this season but showed his old spirit until brought down at Cheltenham, so that handicapper feels justified in keeping him on 143.
ABCDE Balthazar King
The 39.0 choice for this column on BETDAQ last year finished second after completing a four-timer for the season in the cross-country at the Cheltenham Festival.
Has been kept for Aintree this time around, not having raced since another cross-country success at Cheltenham in November. He has a 3lb higher mark than last year.
ABCDE Monbeg Dude
Gallant sequence of places in marathon and Graded contests, since winning the 2013 Welsh National and scoring later in the year at Cheltenham shot him up a total of 18lb.
Seventh in last year’s National (2lb lower on Saturday) and fourth in both Hennessy Gold Cup and Welsh National of 2014.
ABCDE Saint Are
Ninth in the 2013 National when only seven, making up ground on the second circuit. Consistent this season off lower ratings – third in the Becher Chase in December – but raised a stone back to his 2013 mark after winning at Catterick on the last day.
ABCD Alvarado
Struck form in a Grade-3 at Cheltenham in November, 2013, at first attempt over a marathon trip, and fourth in last year’s National, finishing well, and can be ridden with more confidence this time, just a pound higher. Kept on in prep race at Doncaster in February.
ABCD Wyck Hill
A nearly horse in staying events, ninth in the 2013 Becher Chase until finally came good, winning the Eider on heavy ground in February last year. Fell in the same race this year.
ABC Bob Ford
In-and-out performer, West Wales National winner in heavy ground (pulled up either side of that) and has jumped these fences, in December’s Grand Sefton.
ABDE Pineau de Re
Seen out only over hurdles this year, he has 8lb more than for his storming run from the second last to pip Balthazar King in this last year. Now 8lb higher and weighted to dead-heat with that one but significantly 10lb worse with Rocky Creek.
ABD Oscar Time
The Grand National runner-up in 2011 showed he was no back number by running fourth in 2013 but, yet more remarkable, winning December’s Grand Sefton, with Saint Are, Chance Du Roy, Mon Parrain and Across The Bay behind. Now 14.
ACDEX Al Co
Dramatically raised his game when sent out over a marathon trip, winning the Scottish Grand National last April at 40-1. Has prepped over hurdles this year and only 5lb more than at Ayr.
ACDE Godsmejudge
Another Scottish National winner (2013) but has failed to score off higher marks since, though back to form when second at Ayr last Spring – now weighted to get revenge on the winner, Al Co – and third in the Sandown Gold Cup.
ACDE Night In Milan
Son of Milan (sire of another good stayer, Mountainous), very impressive, jumping superbly, in the Grimthorpe last Spring – Mon Parrain, Monbeg Dude behind; Godsmejudge pulled up – and third in both Doncaster tests, Great Yorkshire and Grimthorpe, this year.
ACDX Royale Knight
Third in 2014 marathons Warwick Classic and Scottish Highlands National after winning Scottish Borders National. Won the Durham National in October and prepped in hurdle race last month. Placed in 13 of 17 chases starts and never fallen. From last year’s winning stable.
ACD Gas Line Boy
A long way adrift of Spring Heeled at the Cheltenham Festival last year but improved a stone, according to the handicapper, with back-to-back wins in November. Fourth in Haydock Grand National Trial off the higher mark.
ACD Portrait King
Won the marathons Punchestown Grand National Trial and Eider Chase in 2012 but hit by 27lb rise to 140. Not back to form until shed 13lb of that to win amateur National in February and second in same Punchestown trial. Now he’s back to that 140 mark.
AC Court By Surprise
A total of 89 lengths behind first Night In Milan then Dolatulo a year or so ago but improved 9lb, according to the handicapper, with back-to-back wins last backend at Exeter and Wincanton
ADX Many Clouds
Raised 20lb between the Cheltenham festivals of 2014 and 2015 but underperformed at both. Best when easy winner of the 2014 Hennessy Gold Cup at only seven. Like many who peak at that age, he will do well to recapture that form.
ADE Cause Of Causes
Top hurdles form includes winning The Ladbroke at Ascot in 2012 and quickly to the fore over fences, second in the Power Chase at Leopardstown and then the Kim Muir at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival, where he was impressive this year, taking the NH Chase (4m). But still only seven.
ADE The Druids Nephew
Runner-up to Sam Winner in the Murphy at Cheltenham in November and not disgraced in the Hennessy behind Many Clouds before looking strong in victory at the Cheltenham Festival. Son of Kings Theatre who has got so many good jumpers. Still only eight.
AEX Shutthefrontdoor
Likely to be huge punt as last McCoy mount in the National. Good run in NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham 2014 was prelude to success in the Irish Grand National. Had a winning run back on the stiff Carlisle track in November and saved up for this since.
BCDEX Mon Parrain
Topham Chase runner-up over the big National fences when only five years old. In-and-out performer since; best at Cheltenham. But jumps well and the sort that the big occasion and the big fences could wake up.
BCDEX Royal Rebellion
Jumped the National fences to win the Grand Sefton in 2013 when he was eight. Fifth in the same race in December but in good form at Ascot and Newbury since, either side of second to Soll in a veterans’ event at Exeter. May switch to the Topham.
BCDEX Soll
Eighth in 2012 Hennessy when only seven; then ninth in Welsh National; seventh in Grand National 2013. Contnued as a nearly horse until, looking stronger now at age 10, and dropped in class, had back-to-back success in February. Blinkered on the last day.
BCDE The Rainbow Hunter
The 2014 Great Yorkshire winner; unseated rider in last two Nationals.
BCD Chance Du Roy
Loves the big National fences: second in the Topham 2012 and ninth in 2013; winner and fifth in the last two Bechers. Faded only from the second last in the 2014 National and 2lb better now.
BDE Dolatulo
Eighth in the Grand Sefton over the National fences in December before a gutsy winner of the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. Still only eight.
BD Tranquil Sea
A major player way back with Edward O’Grady after winning the 2008 champion novice at Punchestown. Can jump these fence – 6th in the Topham (2013), third in the Grand Sefton (2012) – and revived by Warren Greatrex at National-legend Fred Winter’s old yard to win a veterans’ chase (he’s 13 now) in February, albeit a stone lower than in his heyday.
CDE Carlito Brigante
Seems to have been around for ever (47 starts; 17 chases) but still only nine. Had much better hurdles form until reaching similar rating over fences recently.
CDEX First Lieutenant
Mouse Morris loves to have one in the National and this is a Grade-1 nearly horse. Second in the Lexus and the Punchestown Gold Cup; second in the RSA and the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival.
CDEX Rubi Light
Achieved a rating of 168 in 2012 after Red Mills and John Durkan successes and third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Dropped 24lb until back to form recently at Thurles and in veterans’ chase at Wexford.
CD Ely Brown
Back-to-back novice-chase wins in early 2014 but flopped in the Reynoldstown at Ascot and not seen again until pulled up over hurdles in January
CD Super Duty
Only nine chases to date, winning one at Cheltenham on heavy as a novice. Pulled up 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup but good second after in Graduation Chase on the same course. Two runs back after missing the whole of 2014.
CD Lord Windermere
Cheltenham RSA winner (2013) who came back – with poor form in between – to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup a year later at 20-1. Not in same mood since and pulled up going for a second gold.
DEX Unioniste
Four our of five in 2012-13, starting out over fences when only four and has needed time to get right after that. His return when sixth in the Hennessy to Many Clouds was promising and he followed up with a win at Sandown. Still only seven.
DE Ballycasey
Willie Mullins’ sole contender. Five wins out of six before RSA fourth last March and runner-up in Punchestown Champion Novice. Brilliant jumping in the mud at Gowran to take Thyestes trial but out of form since, including pulled up in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.
By Denman’s sire, Presenting, and dam’s side goes back to National winner Royal Athlete. Still only eight and not hard to imagine him being set alight by these fences.
DE Corrin Wood
Hat-trick last season shot him up 29lb but flopped in the RSA at Cheltenham. Hidden talent, still unexposed (only eight years old) and with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side.
DE Spring Heeled
His second in the Munster National (2013) and defeat of Cause Of Causes in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (2014) took him 23lb up the ranks.
Fifth Sandown Gold Cup; fourth Galway Plate and Bobbyjo. Stayed on well at Sandown and good-ground outsider, still only eight.
DX Owega Star
Has never won a chase outside novice company but excellent second in the Troytown at Navan, giving more than a stone to the winner, and close fifth in the Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas
D River Choice
French trained, twice a winner over 19f at Enghien but down the field in Graded chases at Auteuil.
NEXT IN LINE TO RUN AFTER ANY WITHDRAWALS
CD Baileys Concerto
Top-of-the-ground horse. Paid heavily for seven wins out of eight last year but still managed second in Great Yorkshire in January.
CD Duke Of Lucca
Excellent year in 2012 but has won only one chase since. Fourth to Balthazar King in Cheltenham Festival cross-country of 2014 and well backed eighth in same race this year, jumping well but looking a doubtful stayer.
ABCDX Raz de Maree
Eighth last year, staying on after almost last at second Bechers. Midlands Grand National runner-up last month. From yard that won Monday’s Irish National.
BD The Package
Twelfth last year, getting well into the race during second circuit, but tired. Won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month.
AD Broadway Buffalo
Quirky sort but stays well. Won Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December and second 4m NH Chase to Cause of Causes at Cheltenham Festival. Still only seven.
SPIN LOOKS THE NAP AT NOTTINGHAM
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 5pts win MESHARDAL (2.20 Catterick)
BET 8pts win (Nap) SPINATRIX (3.10 Nottingham)
BET 5pts win BOW AND ARROW (4.00 Lingfield)
BET 2pts win and place LE CHAT D’OR (4.10 Nottingham)
BET 5pts win PROCESS (8.15 Kempton)
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