DAQ CUP-RACE JACKPOT BID: Daqman eyes the Saturday feature Cup races for a Daq Multiples double which, according to past results, could be anything up to 600-1. He sets the scene with stats and facts today for the July Cup and the John Smiths Cup, promising big bull’s-eye punts on the day
BETDAQ QUARTET AT KEMPTON: Daqman’s 16.0 Pontefract win and place bet yesterday was in the frame at around half that (Fine Vintage 3rd 8-1), before the massive going change. It followed a 7-1 winner on Monday and 7-2 nap on Sunday. Now look out at Kempton tonight for four BETDAQ races.
BIG, BIG SATURDAY DAQ DOUBLES
Forget the favourites. That seems to be one lesson of the recent results for Saturday’s big cup double, the July Cup at Newmarket and the John Smiths Cup at York.
I’ll be on the oche for some Bull’s-Eye Bets, and there’s no better time to put your head down and try for some very-big-odds Daq Multiples.
Newmarket (July Cup) In the 13 years since Mozart, just two market leaders at the ‘off’ have won, with winners at 22-1, 20-1, 14-1, 12-1 (twice), 10-1, 7-1 and 9-2 (three times) among those successful.
Four three-year-olds have won it this century: Mozart himself, Oasis Dream, Sakhee’s Secret and Dream Ahead, all well backed, one at 7-1, two at 9-2 and one at 4-1. So it seems to be a case of getting an early position on BETDAQ, as ever.
In the last decade, all bar one July Cup winner had Group-race credentials, most of them Group 1, some of them coming on from Royal Ascot success.
York (John Smiths Cup) Past results knock out horses over five years of age and, in the last eight years, any carrying more than 8st 12lb.
Richard Fahey (3), Willie Haggas and Sir Mark Prescott (2 each) have all scored since Sir Mark’s famous Pasternak coup of 1997.
The Ballydoyle winner, Mullins Bay (2005), was outright favourite – well, it would be, wouldn’t it – but in the last seven years we’ve had winners at 5-1, 6-1, 10-1, 11-1, 12-1, 16-1 and 33-1.
Rather like the July Cup, getting an early position on BETDAQ with something likely to close to between 9-2 and the edge of outsiderdom (12-1 or so) can make you a killing.
So, you layers, I will be looking for your mistakes. And I’ll be looking for plots: the two most recent winners hadn’t won a race in their year.
Some 15 animals rated 100 or more have been left in thus far, and the race could be top-heavy, so a short handicap.
The last two winners scored off only 91 and 92, though they had started off 99 and 101 (albeit one, a three-year-old) in the two renewals before that.
Yet the 2011 and 2013 winners, set to carry 8st 10lb and 8st 11lb, were rated, disparately, 99 and 92 respectively. So, if you are a punter looking to make a class distinction, be sure to check out rating as well as weight to give you a guide to the quality of the field.
GANG UP ON BETDAQ CARD TONIGHT
No worries about the ground at Kempton tonight. Pontefract punters and commentators were bewildered and befuddled when, albeit after a downpour, the stewards changed the ground from good to firm to soft inside 25 minutes. What chance have you got!
6.20 Kempton (BETDAQ No Premium Charge Apprentice Handicap)
Apprentices open tonight’s card at Kempton in a competitive looking handicap over 7 furlongs with the likely favourite on the orange being the Paul Cole trained Secret Success.
A multiple fibresand winner, Secret Success has won at Kempton previously when winning over a mile at the track in early April. However, I would have reservations with him dropping back down in trip to the seven furlongs this evening. That twinned with being top weight and his form is not all that solid, I think we can look elsewhere in this one.
Indus Valley was one of the famous names at Kempton in January when forming part of Barney Curley’s monster gamble throughout the afternoon, winning over six furlongs at the London track that night.
At a big price, the one I like is Hellbender who has been running quite well lately on turf having had a couple of decent runs prior to that on the All Weather. With the way the handicap ratings work between the turf and All Weather, he has been given some breathing room since his last fibresand win in January when running off a mark of 70. This evening he competes off 66, which could be quite lenient considering his recent turf form and he should go close.
7.20 Kempton (BETDAQ £25 No Lose Free Bet Handicap)
Another very open looking handicap with 14 runners over a mile and several to chose from. I’ve narrowed it down to two however, both of whom I am hoping can overcome less than favourable draws.
Gilbey’s Mate has put in some really good runs on turf of late including a third last time out and a second prior to that in two decent handicaps. Provided he takes to the All Weather, an opening fibresand mark of 80 looks nice for a horse who looks like he could relish the decent underfoot conditions. His racing career opened with two runs in Maidens at Newmarket behind Outstrip and then in Warwick behind, none other than, Breeders Cup winner Chriselliam.
The top weight, Bowie Boy looks a progressive type and having won over course and distance, I think he improve the desired amount to be very competitive in this contest. Although he was beaten just over seven lengths last time out, that was in a Class 3 race over a furlong shorter so tonight’s conditions should be more to his liking.
8.50 Kempton (Cash Out on the BETDAQ App Handicap)
Today’s Nap runs in the penultimate race of the evening and, although this does contain some very useful and well proven sorts like Thecornishcowboy and Emulating, I find it very hard to look beyond Gang Warfare. His only three runs so far have come at a far from adequate trip of a mile and having slotted into second twice, including once behind the 93 rated Moohaarib, who won again subsequently. An introductory mark of 74 looks quite attractive.
That twinned with the step up in trip and a very nice racing weight of 8-11, the nap selection goes to Gang Warfare who could prove very difficult to beat.
9.20 Kempton (BETDAQ – The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap)
The concluding BETDAQ race on this evening’s Kempton card is another really competitive contest, this time over six furlongs. Again, there are a couple to chose from but last week’s course and distance winner, Almanack could be able to score again having escaped a penalty ahead of tonight’s run.
When trained in Ireland, Almanack made it to a high of 90 at one stage and has been dropping slowly down in the ratings since moving to Britain. A repeat of last week’s run should see him go close once again, from a favourable draw.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet staked for 20 points profit)
BET 2.1pts win HELLBENDER (6.20 Kempton)
BET 3.1pts win GILBEY’S MATE and 1.7pts win and place BOWIE BOY (7.20 Kempton)
BET 4pts win (NAP) GANG WARFARE (8.50 Kempton)
BET 4.1pts win ALMANACK (9.20 Kempton)
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