TWO NAPS UP OUT OF THREE: Wonder-tipster Daqman has landed two winning naps in three days, both odds against if you took BETDAQ morning offers on Sunday:
WON 11-10 WONDER Tuesday nap
WON 4-9 HONESTY POLICY Sunday nap (2.6 taken on BETDAQ)
FESTIVAL COUNTDOWN DAY 2: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey for next Wednesday at Cheltenham, with ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
SIX ODDS-ON SHOTS LOSE
CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY, March 12: LAYS LOGIC: A plethora of favourites bite the dust in the Coral Cup, Champion Chase (six losers listed below) and Grand Annual.
Daqman will track them down each day; meanwhile these facts and figures will help define your personal algorithms to focus on winner-finding and risk reduction.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Turners Novices’ Hurdle) Five favourites up out of seven, four of them odds on; and only one winner’s SP in double figures since 2012. Ages: Just two horses older than six have won since 1974.
Ratings (last eight years): 146, 155, 147, 155, 147, 156, 150, 151, 148, 157.
Trainers: Irish 10 out of 11, including Willie Mullins (5), with a hat-trick completed last year
The last 15 winners started out in Irish Points or in bumpers; 12 had won over at least 2m 4f and taken a Graded hurdle.
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) Six favourites up out of 10, with two others at 4-1.
Ages: 15 out of the last 18 were aged 7; and 14 out of the last 17 had won a Graded race; 12 had already won at Cheltenham or been placed in the Champion Bumper.
Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155, 153, 164, 159, 153, 159. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3). Six Irish winners in 12 years: Willie Mullins (3).
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Coral Cup) 20 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, with 13 of the 17 most recent winners at double-figure odds, including 12-1, 16-1, 20-1, 28-1, 33-1 and 50-1 since 2016.
Just five in 24 years have won when above the age of seven, and 12 of the last 15 had scored at 2m 2f or further.
Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151, 140, 138, 152, 141, 141. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (4), Ireland (5) in last 12 years but Dan Skelton now on a hat-trick. Weights: 10st 12lb to 11st 5lb have won six of the last nine.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites’ odds 4-1 and 9-2 in last two seasons and recent best before that Tombstone (2017) at 7-2. But you may still feel that those are good odds among 20 losers!
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) In the last 10 years this test has produced winner (twice), second and third in the Grand National.
Favourites: four out of the last eight have won with none bigger than 7-1 in that time.
Ages: 8, 9 10 shared 11 out of 12. Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159, 152, 166, 160. Trainers: Gordon Elliott (5), Enda Bolger (3).
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) Just four favourites have won in the last 11 years but only one winner has been double-figure SP. Ages: all between 7 and 10.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5), Henry De Bromhead (4), Willie Mullins (2), Paul Nicholls (2). Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175, 165, 156, 175.
Some 18 out of 20 winners had scored at least five times over fences and 17 ran at Cheltenham before; 11 of the last 13 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 14 out of 20 years.
LAYS LOGIC: SIX ODDS-ON LOSERS IN NINE YEARS: Huge strikes with six odds-on favourites beaten in this nine-year sequence! Un De Sceaux 2nd 4-6 (2016); Douvan 7th 2-9 (2017); Altior WON 1-1 (2018); Altior WON 4-11 (2019); Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5 (2020); Chacun Pour Soi 3rd 8-13 (2021); Shishkin p/u 5-6 (2022); El Fabiolo pulled up 2-9 (2024).
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Challenge Cup) Only two favourites have won in 12 years and most winners have been big prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1 (twice), 20-1, 16-1 (twice), 12-1, 10-1. Ages: 7, 8, 9 (11 out of 14)
Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139, 147, 152, 136, 138. Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Eight of the last 11 winners had not scored over fences that season.
LAYS LOGIC: Rock The World (2016) 3rd 9-2 fav; Le Prezien (2017) 8th 7-2 fav; Magic Saint (2019) 10th 9-2 fav; Embittered (2021) 9-2 fav fell; Andy Dufresne (2022) 2nd 10-3 fav; Sa Fureur (2024) 4th 4-1 fav. Note that Rock The World and Le Prezien both won the following year.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) SP: Only three favourites have won in 10 seasons but the trend is away from a run of big prices to short SPs, with eight out of 10 in single figures.
The double-figure winners in the decade (11-1 and 25-1) were both down to Willie Mullins’ outsiders; he was the culprit again 11 years ago at 25-1.
Every winner had scored last time out: 14-14. Ages 5 and 6 have won the last 13.
MURPHY STORM WARNING
⭕ 3.42 Lingfield (Spring Cup) William Haggas seemed to be farming this race then, after a hat-trick, his runners finished nearer last than first (overall 111000).
But, on the first day of his return from Riyadh last week, Tom Marquand rode a Haggas winner and this is his first for the stable since and the only one for them of his four today.
His mount, Raneenn, was straight off the mark last summer and made all at both Yarmouth and Chester. Likely to play catch-me again.
Oisin Murphy, who rides the filly Dance In The Storm, came away from Riyadh with one of the biggest winter Flat turf prizes, the £1.2m Red Sea Handicap. Dance In The Storm was 11.5 the win, 3.3 for second place in Betdaq Betting Exchange offers his morning.
Rajeko kept hot company in the July Stakes and the Acomb but had to drop to class 4 for a narrow AW strike in December. Rebel’s Gamble landed a class-5 double.
Compare with Bountiful, winner of a class 2 at Carlisle before fourth in the Group-2 Duchess Of Cambridge. But may need the run after 236 days’ absence.
ALL PRESENT AND COLLECT
⭕ 5.00 Catterick An old punting pal told me many years ago: I like a horse that likes the course and a jockey that likes the horse.
Trying to be young again at the same time, I like fancy a CD winner here, Presentandcounting, with top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor renewing partnership with his old point-to-point pal.
⭕ 7.30 Kempton Joe Leavy won here last Spring on Mr Baloo off this kind of mark and the Richard Hannon four-year-old has scored back to back before.
But Patch’s Bond, who turned over an odds-on shot here in November, stayed 1m 4f – narrowly beaten – the last day, giving Paddy Bradley that extra confidence back at a mile. BETDAQ 5.2 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.42 Lingfield (win 30, win 10 a place 1/2)
BET 3pts win and place DANCE IN THE STORM
★ 5.00 Catterick (win 12, nap)
BET 10pts win PRESENTANDCOUNTING
7.30 Kempton (win 12)
BET 3pts win PATCHS BOND
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