DAQMAN HITS SUPERNAP HAT-TRICK: A teeth-gnashing start to Cheltenham for Daqman when defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory for Ms Parfois (2ND 11-2) in the final strides. After Brain Power (2ND 14-1), he was placed yet again with Vintage Clouds (3RD 7-1). But he made it five winning naps out of six, upping his stake to a 30-pointer on Buveur d’Air for a hat-trick of supernaps. Doubled with Footpad (WON 5-6).
WON 4-6 BUVEUR D’AIR (Tuesday Champion Hurdle supernap)
WON 9-4 MR LANDO (Monday nap)
WON 4-11 PITON PETE (Sunday supernap)
2ND 9-2 HORATIO HORNBLOWER (Saturday nap)
WON 11-10 JEZKI (Friday supernap)
WON 11-4 MOABIT (Thursday nap)
THE NAP THAT WON FOR US AT 43.0: Daqman is now 24-11 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post in their value challenge and, to a single-unit stake, he’s 61 points in front: Daqman +40, Pricewise -21. Today he nominates one of the column’s star finds as a supernap. Here’s how the horse has landed a hat-trick at the festival so far.
WON 8-1 CAUSE OF CAUSES (NH Chase, 43.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 9-2 CAUSE OF CAUSES (Kim Muir)
WON 4-1 CAUSE OF CAUSES (Cross-Country), all Cheltenham
TOP PLAYER TO STAR IN THE CUP: Along with Cause Of Causes, he nominates a new star for Cheltenham today (in the Coral Cup) and in the future. Here are his afternoon predictions:
DESTINATION THE FIRST THREE
IT’S ANOTHER ‘PHOTO’ FINISH
GAME MY NEW FESTIVAL STAR
DOUVAN IS CHAMPION VALUE
BET BE‘CAUSE’ HE’S THE BEST
DESTINATION THE FIRST THREE!
AMAZING VALUE: The orange lists of offers in BETDAQ were virtually a level playing field for punters this morning. I warned in an article only last week that you could expect bookies to create Total SP overrounds up to 137%.
Today’s BETDAQ totals were amazing value at : 101, 102, 103, 100, 102, 102, 105%.
1.30 Cheltenham (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)
STATS A Ben Pauling outsider last year broke a sequence in the decade of no winner bigger than 7-1 SP (Willie Mullins. four) but Ben’s Gowiththeflow is a top-of-the-ground horse as far as we know and drifted from 25-1 to 66-1 last night. Willie Mullins has won this four times out of the 10.
FORM A line through a horse called Jetz, second to both Samcro and Next Destination, gives Samcro the edge over that rival and over his Mullins’ stablemate, Duc Des Genievres.
Black Op shot up the ratings after running up to Santini over close-on this CD here at Cheltenham on heavy, with Santini now a hot shot in the Albert Bartlett.
Black Op has been gambled on, and Tom George’s poor form which put me off Summerville Boy yesterday now reads much better, doesn’t it!
HIDDEN HORSE Vision Des Flos cruised up at Exeter after a wind op. He was 20.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE Sorry, I have only the first three for you here! Samcro and Next Destination are Fortune Cookies and Black Op is our ante-post bet, in from 17.5 on BETDAQ to 13.0 this morning. Thanks for the overs, guys.
IT’S ANOTHER ‘PHOTO’ FINISH!
2.10 Cheltenham (RSA Novices’ Chase)
STATS Seven-year-olds have won eight of the last 10, and and maybe my Fortune Cookie Al Boum Photo is coming to this a bit soon
FORM But the Al Boum Photo dam’s line goes back to a Scottish National winner and he’s been well backed, though easily held over shorter by Monalee, equally well related for stamina, to a Thyestes winner.
The money has also poured on Black Corton to give Bryony Frost a festival winner after Lizzie Kelly’s triumph yesterday He was one of my mudlarks in the list on Sunday after Paul Nicholls declared: It’s astonishing how far he’s got.’
Ballyoptic followed in the hoofprints of the 2016 winner, Blaklion, who won at Wetherby on the way to taking this.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE: I’ve got Monalee ante-post, Black Corton one of my Stick-In-The Muds and Al Boum Photo a Fortune Cookie., Another 1-2-3!
Did I hear you ask ‘what about Presenting Percy? Well, he’s strictly only a 150 horse on his defeat of Augusta Kate and, though he battled well against Our Duke at Gowran, he was beaten favourite, a mistake when it mattered costing him the race
Getting on Monalee at 6.4 holds up my percentages and, with seemingly three aces in my pack, I’m tempted to go for a lay on the favourite. Please keep Percy short for me, you players.
My fans who meet in an old telephone box will understand that I often bet to win on the race at Cheltenham not on an individual horse, but my critics who hire the Etihad for meetings will have a Wenger about it, so neck on the line with Percy, lads. You happy!
GAME MY NEW FESTIVAL STAR
2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup)
STATS The last 14 favourites in this handicap have all failed to score. Just two winners in 18 years have been over the age of seven.
FORM That’s a damp fuse for Max Dynamite, who was third in the Melbourne Cup but has won only a modest event at Killarney since the Lonsdale Cup at York in 2015, kept mainly to a sound surface.
William Henry is also eight and has to give lumps of weight, with James Bowen’s 3lb and first-time cheekpieces trying to make up his chances.
For the gamble of the race, Topofthegame, weight is just ballast to keep him on an even keel. This horse is a giant. Massive. And galloping is his game. He’s my new Cheltenham star.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE: I got 9.4 Topofthegame ante-post but you could back him this morning at 14.0, so I’ll go in again.
He’s a chaser in the making who was almost three lengths off William Henry in the Lanzarote but that was on a flat track at Kempton. Cheltenham will play to his strengths.
DOUVAN IS CHAMPION VALUE
3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Chase)
STATS Winning trainers in the decade are Nicky Henderson 3 (Altior), Paul Nicholls 3 (Politologue) and Henry de Bromhead 2 (Speciual Tiara). But they are under attack here from the Willie Mullins duo of Douvan and Min.
FORM Altior is unbeaten in seven chases and five hurdles races; Min never out of the frame with 4-5 over fences; Douvan 9-10.
This is a race that horses win twice, but Special Tiara is 11 now, trying to score back-to-back. With his fall behind Politologue and defeat by Min over Christmas, he’s being pushed him out all the time.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE Altior brushed aside Politologue (out to 17.5 in the orange as I write) and, if he is 100% as Nicky Henderson insists this morning, he will take some beating. Douvan, the dual festival winner winner, (Supreme and Arkle), has to bounce back, but Ruby Walsh prefers him to Min and, if the pelvic injury hasn’t left him mental scarred, his form when fresh is 11111.
Willie Mullins has been switching him from one target to another, each time aiming higher and higher. Now he’s in the big one.
Such impetus, added to the scare about the favourite, the ease in his odds (2.22 this morning from odds on), and the admission that heavy ground is not his best terrain, suggests that 4.6 Douvan is value against him.
BET BE’CAUSE’ HE’S THE BEST
4.10 Cheltenham, (Cross-Country)
STATS Just one winning favourite in the decade but, with a couple of exceptions, the SPs are 4-1 to 11-2. Trainers: Enda Bolger 3, Philip Hobbs 2.
FORM The 2017 winner, Causes Of Causes, was scoring for the third time for this column at the Cheltenham Festival and, despite a modest effort on his return two weeks ago, was well touted by trainer Gordon Elliott at the unveiling of weights for the Grand National, in which he was runner-up last April.
Enda Bolger, who has won this three times in the decade, still has four left in, including Josie’s Orders and Auvergnat.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE With the 2016 winner Josies Orders back to form, and the ’moral’, giving weight when short headed by Auvergnat over shorter on the last day, I took some ante-post.
But, while there is a question-mark with Josie over the ground, Gordon Elliott insists this morning that Cause Of Causes will have no problem and he’s confident.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (already ante-post to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3pts BLACK OP
2.10 Cheltenham (already ante-post to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 9.25pts win MONALEE
(LAY to lose 10pts Presenting Percy)
2.50 Cheltenham (already ante-post to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win TOPOFTHEGAME
3.30 Cheltenham (to win 30)
BET 5.5pts win DOUVAN
4.10 Cheltenham (already ante-post to win 50)
BET 8.25pts win JOSIE’S ORDERS
(plus today at 4.1 taken)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win CAUSE OF CAUSES
4.50 Cheltenham (minimum stake at 44.0)
BET 1pt win and place BRAVE DANCING
5.30 Cheltenham (minimum stake at 28.0)
BET 1pt win and place THE BIG BITE
Cheltenham Fortune Cookies (10pts win each)
SAMCRO and NEXT DESTINATION (1.30)
AL BOUM PHOTO (2.10)
POLITOLOGUE (3.30)
Cheltenham Stick-In-The-Muds (10pts win each)
BLACK CORTON (2.10)
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