TESTING THE MARKETS FOR VALUE: Derby and Oaks trials today at Chester and next week at York. Check out the likely winners against their offers for Epsom on the BETDAQ exchange and try to bag some big-race value.
‘RESULTS BY STALL’ CHESTER GUIDE: Daqman reckons the draw will have a big say in results from Chester this afternoon. He picks a supernap in the Cheshire Oaks.
DRAW FULL OF WINNERS
HEADS UP After the draw bias at Newmarket, what have we got here? The answer is Chester, the track where the stalls decide almost every race at the early meetings, though watch for a rails cutaway. Later in the year, the bias seems to fizzle out, through overuse of the rail.
⭕ 1.30 Chester (6f) Results by stall: 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, even though this is not a handicap, where there’s been levelling up, but a conditions race, where there is only a predetermined weights gap between colts and fillies.
In fact, fillies have won four of the last five seasons, and are getting between 4lb and 8lb here.
And it’s hard to resist the pair who have won already and are seemingly well drawn: Ziggy’s Phoenix out of the one stall; Ziggy’s Dream out of 6. No connection in their breeding but the name seems to be a favourite of Middleham Park Racing, owners of both.
With Ryan Moore on Phoenix out of the one stall, I took the 3.35 about the favourite on BETDAQ.
SQUEALER CAN MAKE ALL
⭕ 2.05 Chester (5f handicap) Results by stall (since 2016) have been 3, 4, 3, 6, 4, 2, which seems to be a LAYS LOGIC vote against Jer Batt (out of 12) and Democracy Dilemma (8), except that the only rogue draw results in the decade were two winners from stall 8.
The one stall is often squeezed out in these sprints but Squealer has Tom Marquand booked and made all at Beverley. Seems well suited to the track and seemingly has the class, tried at Listed and Group-3 level.
So, too, Carmela (gate 2), who gets 7lb from Squealer, but she was on the slide this morning, as a firm-ground winner, and the market was also negative about William Buick’s booked ride, Danger Alert.
The money was for Seantrabh out of stall 3; a soft-ground winner, claimed off and straightened by a run at Thirsk.
The winner at Thirsk that day was Democracy Dilemma, who had the benefit of a winter AW season, and now facing a 12lb swing in the weights with Seantrabh.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.6 Seantrabh, 6.4 Squealer
DANCE TO WALTZ HOME
⭕ 2.40 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) Results by stall (since 2013); gates 7, 2, 2, 6, 3, 1, 6, 3, 8. Draw bias is not so solid over around 1m 4f and with a huge ratings difference between fillies.
Aidan O’Brien was 5-5 at this May meeting last year, and Savethelastdance is 6-1 Oaks favourite in the BETDAQ ante-post list.
She was 20-1 when outpointing her fancied stablemate, Boogie Woogie, at Leopardstown on heavy, and rain is likely to make the Chester ground soft this afternoon.
HADRIANUS BIG VALUE
⭕ 3.15 Chester (Chester Vase) Another 1m 4f trial for 3yos. Stalls 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2, 8, 4, 2; often small fields, often the lowest numbers.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Vase 10 times already but, unlike Savethelastdance, you don’t know whether Adelaide River has trained on, and you have the negative of her six-lengths defeat by the Frankel colt Arrest when they were second and third in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October (heavy).
Charlie and Mark Johnston won that Saint-Cloud race with Dubai Mile, and their Hadrianus could, therefore, be a false price at offers of 7.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
In typical Johnston fashion, Hadrianus made all at Kempton in December, and caught the eye when runner-up in the Blue Riband Derby Trial at Epsom on his reappearance.
25.0 TASEVER IS WELL IN
⭕ 3.45 Chester (6f) Stalls 2, 9, 5, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2. The 25.0 offer Tasever (gate 4) had a poor start the last day through no fault of his own, and gets 10lb from the favourite, Royal Dress (out of 4).
Royal Dress (BETDAQ 3.15) is likely to try to make all under Ryan Moore, and only had to be pushed out at Doncaster.
Commander Straker (5) could be expected to attack the leader but has to overcome an absence of 341 days. He has form in a better grade but none with give in the ground.
Lakota Blue (6) is three from five, with the handicapper wary of one who has run in the Coventry and the Gimcrack.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Chester (win 10)
BET 4pts win ZIGGYS PHOENIX
2.00 Chester (win 12 each)
BET 3.3pts win SEANTRABH
BET 2.25pts win SQUEALER
2.40 Chester (supernap)
BET 20pts win SAVETHELASTDANCE
3.15 Chester (win 12)
BET 2pts win HADRIANUS
3.45 Chester (win 25, win 10)
BET 1pt win TASEVER
BET 5pts win ROYAL DRESS
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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