HEADING FOR A BETDAQ CRACKER AT KEMPTON TONIGHT: Daqman intends to get up a Head Of Steam in a cracking handicap contest of nine course winners at Kempton tonight. It’s part of a four-race BETDAQ sponsorship. His nap is at Fontwell.
Novices, beginners and maidens. That’s a large portion of the afternoon fare over jumps and on the Flat. No wonder that, after burning my fingers in a maiden race yesterday, I’m concentrating on the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Kempton Park tonight, hot with tasty handicaps.
But my nap goes fishing at Fontwell for Herony (4.00), with Barry Geraghty flying over for the one ride, and trainer Nicky Henderson bullish, yet 3.6 this morning on the exchange that has the big value.
6.20 Kempton (£500 Free Bets At Betdaq Median Auction Maiden Stakes) It’s hard to fancy horses with seven or more failed attempts – Kaahen, Martial Art, Princess Sheila, Robyn and Seraphiel – or one from a stable badly out of form (Chris Down hasn’t had a winner from 38 runners in 167 days).
With Ellen May (first time out) and Ostralegus (absent more than a year) also rejected, I’m left with Poyle Vinnie, Master Wizard, Presumido and Diva Delight. I could back them all this morning at 100-76.
But Master Wizard has had his problems and changed trainers, while Presumido has a wide draw and Diva Delight – stable out of form – has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir to 22.0.
So it is that I’m a Poyle Vinnie man but a serious bet is precluded by the nature of the race and this being only his second outing. And I worry that first-time visors could make a difference to Martial Art.
7.50 Kempton (Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap) Following Dean Ivory (Russian Ice) is a cunning plan at Kempton but it’s turned Baldrick with a slump in the trainer’s fortunes, getting only 17% of their best out of his horses, according to the Racing Post. The John Best string (Bayleyf) is also in the doldrums.
Woolston Ferry and Copperwood have shown glimpses of their old form lately but have double-figure stalls and are not of the age to come sweeping through at speed.
Poetic Lord and Malaysian Boleh are also drawn out in the Sunbury car-park, while Michael Attwater’s stable is struggling and its last first prize was secured by Bowstar, which has her trying to put back-to-back wins together here. That’s hard to do at this level.
But at least Bowstar’s wins have been record at Kempton, whereas another last-day winner, Cape Samba, has always been at his best on turf. This pair nervously lead the exchanges this morning in a very open market.
Savanna Days hasn’t won since her debut, always a bad sign but double underlined by her failure to score in 22 races since. I can see front-runner Syncopate setting this up for the George Baker trained George Baker, 6.8 on BETDAQ as I write.
George Baker (the horse) is drawn on the inside, has won at Kempton, is lower in the ratings than for his highest winning turf mark and is on a mission to recoup losses from a losing gamble, in to 7-4 favourite at Yarmouth in August.
8.20 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Nursery Handicap) Some top yards have turned up for this nursery and the 7f handicap which follows, with both races having decent prizemoney at class-4 level.
David Lanagan’s Sea The Stars filly, Bold Lass, is the big attraction for punters in this one, short at the front of the BETDAQ market on the strength of her pedigree and competent debut success at Leicester a fortnight ago.
Yes, she’s still being educated, but it always worries me when such a well-bred animal continues racing at a low level, as if to say she’s not up to much. It’s also a concern for every first-time winner that the second race is the one to reveal the animal’s true temperament.
Having said all that, she’ll probably win but not with my money on her at 13-10 this morning. It’s 9.0 bar two and I fancy finding a position at a price which could contract later.
I was inclined towards Constantine. He’s a previous winner and has been placed on today’s course for the champion trainer elect, and is ridden by the champion rider.
I tried to equate his leap into a class 2 at Newmarket against his cold shoulder in the market this morning (offers of 14.0). Doesn’t make sense, so I turned to King Of Macedon.
I think the Yorkshire raider is the true favourite, having already gone close in a handicap (slow away) and having made virtually all first time up in typical Mark Johnston manner. Yet 6.4 as I write.
One threat is Never To Be (at 9.0), a winner at Lingfield who didn’t enjoy the soft surface when trying to follow up at Goodwood. I’ll take on Bold Lass with Never To Be and King Of Macedon but to lay her would be to make this a high-stakes race. It’s not.
8.50 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Handicap) The usual suspects but a cracking contest of nine course winners, seven over CD. Positive rides in its three-year history have negated the draw every time, with winners from stalls 8, 11 and 12. So where’s the edge, what can we knock out of the offers list to give ourselves a chance?
Well, they don’t want struggling Lewisham, or the six-year-olds Corporal Maddox and Kakatosi, but Palace Moon, though aged eight, is ‘big’ at 13.5, a CD winner at this level last year but mainly contesting class 2, even Listed races, since. Has he retained enough speed?
At the top of the handicap, Chookie Royale was ‘tonked’ 11lb for his last-day win, and another recent scorer, Mr David, was well behind Head Of Steam earlier in the year.
Head Of Steam has taken on some of the top turf handicappers at class-2 level and is a winner over CD off today’s mark, so 10.0 offers look too big. Well drawn in 3.
Snag is (there’s always a snag, isn’t there), trainer Amanda Perrett also runs Sir Mike, another CD winner, also well drawn, and weighted alongside David Lanigan’s Footstepsintherain on their first and third over CD last month.
Again, the Lanagan horse was kept to the same level next time out (and lost). Yet another CD winner in class 4, Future Reference, also stayed at that level and also lost on turf next time.
Midnight Rider has never won over today’s trip. Palace Moon’s stablemate, Nassau Storm, is returning to Kempton, as a CD winner who was second in class 2 here a year ago.
What a race! Daqman pauses for breath and to remove large hatpin from drawer. Stabs several horses but doesn’t believe what he sees.
Verdict: Three-year-olds have yet to break their duck in this, so I’m siding with ultra-consistent Future Reference (6.6), with Saeed Bin Suroor and Silvestre De Sousa in such good form, and sticking to my fancy for Head Of Steam.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Stakes to win 20 points. One winner covers the rest of the day’s bets)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) HERONRY (4.00 Fontwell)
BET 3.4pts win GEORGE BAKER (7.50 Kempton)
BET 3.6pts win KING OF MACEDON and 2.5pts win NEVER TO BE (8.20 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win FUTURE REFERENCE and 2.2pts win HEAD OF STEAM (8.50 Kempton)
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