33-1 CAMBRIDGESHIRE CRACKER: Daqman today presents his ABC Guide of form, facts and stats for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire, with a 33-1 shot (with Ladbrokes) top of the list. The horse-by-horse assessment has recently produced winners of the Celebration Mile and the Doncaster St Leger:
KODI BEAR PUNTERS EXPECT CELEBRATION (Won 4-5)
LEGER SET TO BE BALLYDOYLE BEACH PARTY (Won 2-1)
DAQMAN’S NAP AN EARLY 4.7: Cambridgeshire defectors, Basem and Sennockian Star, come under the spotlight today, as Daqman checks out the better races at Goodwood. He naps one trading at 4.7 on BETDAQ this morning. Look out tomorrow for the start of the Newmarket meeting.
MASTER TRAINER ELSWORTH TOP OF THE WORLD
3.50 Newmarket, Saturday (Cambridgeshire) I find that the winner is a young horse from a select group in a specific ratings parameter who has shown stamina beyond the 1m 1f of this race.
That’s what the following ABC boxes are all about but beware that this field is notable for lightly-raced unexposed horses:
A Rated 95 to 104 (nine winners out of 11)
B Ran four to seven times that season (10/11)
C Had won in a field of 13 or more runners (11/11)
D Won or placed in class 2 or higher (11/11)
E Below the age of six (9/11)
F Had won at around 1m 2f (8/11)
X Black mark for penalty (0-21)
ABCDEF Master The World
Scored under 9st 11lb at Newmarket in the summer (1m 2f) but quiet since. Favourite when behind in the Shergar Cup Mile but better off now with the first two, Halation and Earth Drummer.
Veteran trainer Elsworth, who has topped £1m in prizemoney for the first time in 10 seasons, is the type whose handicappers can pop up any time, and this one ticks all the boxes. Silvestre De Sousa the likely jock. Currently quoted 33-1 by Ladbrokes.
ABCDE Donncha
The box this one doesn’t tick is the distance, and best run was third in huge-field Ascot 7f handicap, but still improving and some on his dam’s side got further (dam’s sire a Derby winner).
ABCDE Earth Drummer
Lightly raced this term, and only 15 starts overall, ‘moral’ winner of the Shergar Cup Mile in August, giving weight when second to Halation. Now weighted to dead-heat. Smart prep for this at York (10.5f), not quite seeing out that trip.
ABCDE Jacob Black
Just run out of it in a top-class 1m handicap at Sandown in June – better off now with the third, Master The World – but can this free-going sort stay the extra furlong and cope with other pace horses?
ABCDE My Dream Boat
‘Another furlong would not be impossible,’ said trainer Clive Cox after this three-year-old won on the last day – his eighth start – in a big field (1m, good to soft) at York. The handicapper hiked him 9lb.
ABCDE Portage
Excellent second in the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh (Brendan Brackan fifth), having won well at Ascot in similar conditions (stiff mile on soft). William Buick booked.
ABCDF Educate
Won this race in 2013 off 104. Though failing to score since, and only ninth last season (when rated 110), is now on lowest mark (102) in two years.
ABCDFX Energia Davos
Back to form at Ascot earlier this month after a year in the doldrums since winning at Haydock (10.5f) but Ascot was his first run on turf for a year.
ABCD Brendan Brackan
Ger Lyons currently has form figures of 102221 but has had only eight winners from 73 English starters and Brendan Brackan, though Group-3 placed twice at 7-8f, has form figures at 9f-plus of 040003.
ABDE Dancetrack
Has had only five starts. Kept Pattern company since breaking his maiden a year ago but seemingly a glass horse, not seen since two races in the Spring at Listed level.
ABDE You’re Fired
Listed-level placed at York and strongly fancied, but made no show, in the Royal Hunt Cup. Won only class 3 and no form beyond a mile.
ABDE Merry Me
I marked this one down for the Cambridgeshire in the Daqman column when she was just run out of it in a tough mile handicap at the Epsom Derby meeting, and her Group-2 second on the last day suggests she has improved since the summer. But can she stay this fast-run 1m 1f?
ABDF Forgotten Hero
Fourth in the John Smith’s Cup at York (1m 2.5f) but well down the field in this race last season.
ABE Early Morning
Has won only in class 3 and only at a mile but has had just 10 races in his life and broke a bone in his leg when being prepared for the 2014 German Derby. Trainer said recently there was ‘a nice handicap in him.’
ABEX Third Time Lucky
Four wins out of six; best form in class 3 at a mile but the word from the high-flying Richard Fahey yard is that he’s ‘a smashing horse who keeps on improving.’
ACDE Abseil
Lightly raced (only 11 starts) has starred mainly as a lead horse in the Stoute yard because he works so well. Gelded last winter, got his head in front in the Hambleton Handicap (1m Listed) ay the York Dante meeting but faded into third, head behind You’re Fired. On highest mark.
ACDE Musaddas
Consistent miler but 020 raised to class 2 and beaten favourite in first-time visor at York on the last day, after earlier second to Birdman there. Had beaten Jacob Black and Master The World at Newmarket in the Spring, but now worse off with both.
ADEF Master Of Finance
Winner over 10f and placed in big handicaps at Ascot and Epsom. Prefers the softer ground, and 13lb higher than his last winning mark.
ADEF Resonant
A 10-furlong winner and second on the Newmarket July Course. Not seen since July and a real hidden horse.
ADEF Sennockian Star
Has had a staggering 17 races this year, 54 in all, including second in a Listed at Royal Ascot (10f). Prefers a turning track to keep him interested. Due to run at Goodwood today.
ADE Halation
Consistent miler, beat Earth Drummer in the Shergar Cup. Second over the Cambridgeshire CD in the Spring but badly in now with the third horse home, Educate.
BCDE Gm Hopkins
Royal Hunt Cup winner by a neck (on 103), beaten off this higher mark at Goodwood and well behind in a Group 3 at York. Track and class excuses could be made for him and has won at 1m 1f.
BCDE Nafaqa
Second in the Royal Lodge Stakes (1m) last year at this time but has disappointed since, kept mainly to Pattern races, but in the hands of shrewdie Barry Hills and with Paul Hanagan booked.
BCDE Spark Plug
Beat Gm Hopkins in that one’s Royal Hunt Cup prep at Newbury. Clipped heels and came down in the Cup itself and not recovered his form since. Could bounce back for Jimmy Fortune.
BE Man of Harlech
Only once out of the first four in nine starts but success only at class-4 level until improvement at Doncaster on the last day, splitting Bronze Angel and Birdman (1m).
CDE Birdman
Three 7f wins in the Spring, two at a mile in the summer, and well weighted now with winner and second, Bronze Angel and Man of Harlech (1m Doncaster), but doubt about the extra furlong.
CDX Bronze Angel
Dual winner of this off 95 and 99, and showed he was no back number with the Doncaster win over Man of Harlech and Birdman and 3lb claimer brings his burden down to 9st 5lb off 105 rating.
BASEM LOOKS SET TO BOOST BIG-RACE FORM
3.45 Goodwood (Foundation Stakes) Today’s link with the Cambridgeshire is Basem, who beat Jacob Black and Master The World at Sandown in June but that, and a Group-3 third to Mondialiste at York, has hiked him to 110, so that this Listed is the better option.
His winning form is at a mile, but three in a row at Sandown with its tough finish suggests that today’s 1m 1f plus at Goodwood won’t trouble him, and the soft terrain will help a son of Pivotal.
Battalion had already won a Listed and success up to 1m 4f suggests that he’ll be staying on but looks a bit one-paced for this track.
Empire Storm and David Livingston have had long spells on the sidelines and we don’t know what to expect, but we can visualise Hors De Combat and Wannabe Yours getting involved, both dropping from the Pattern, with Wannabe Yours the one we know will cope with the ground.
It’s a tough call and best to be guided by the BETDAQ market which says it’s a three-horse contest: Basem, Battalion and Hors De Combat.
This is a race that Basem’s stable has won five times in the decade, and he loves soft ground. His brother Farrh won the Champion Stakes (1m 2f).
4.20 Goodwood We can assume that, unless he’s removed from this race later today, Sennockian Star will also sidestep the Cambridgeshire.
He’s been placed 24 times from 54 starts and cannot be dismissed lightly but has never coped with today’s trip in the past, with his winning form at 1m 2f.
Alcaeus, a glass horse these days, did his winning on firmish ground, and Castle Combe has always avoided soft.
Scrutinise has to make a leap of two grades. Though that’s always possible for a three-year-old, you need a price and you don’t get one this morning.
Notarised has been running over further, but his form at 1m 4f since York in May is 1011, including here at Goodwood, and when tearing away with the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.
He’s 5lb higher in the handicap but as tough as my granny’s old boots, and the BETDAQ 4.7 Notarised alongside 3.3 Scrutinise is plain wrong.
5.10 Naas I’ve tipped Landofhopeandglory for better things, expecting him to take in the Beresford on the way to the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy.
I have no choice but to hold firm here, in the hope that this nursery run is not a downgrade, and that all has been well with him at Ballydoyle.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 on strength; 10 would be a banker).
BET 8pts win BASEM (3.45 Goodwood)
BET 8pts win (nap) NOTARISED (4.20 Goodwood)
BET 8pts win LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY (5.10 Naas)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble the three.
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