TRUCK LOAD OF DAQMAN WINNERS ON A DAILY BASIS: Legs Eleven! That’s 11 hits for Daqman in seven days, as his win-a-day week continued with Truckers Lodge at a terrific 3-1 SP yesterday. Here are the 11 scorers:
WON 3-1 TRUCKERS LODGE (Tuesday)
WON 6-4 CAPTAIN DRAKE (Monday)
WON 7-2 MOVING IN STYLE (Sunday)
WON 6-1 CAROLE’S DESTRIER(Saturday)
WON 6-1 LILLINGTON (Friday
WON 6-5 CHRISTOPHER WOOD (Friday)
WON 3-10 ZMHAR (Friday)
WON 11-8 FOREST OF DEAN (Thursday)
WON 11-4 THE DELLERCHECKOUT (Thursday)
WON 11-4 VIOLA PARK (Wednesday)
WON 2-1 SINGING THE BLUES (Wednesday)
SEE HOW THEY WON: SHAKY FESTIVAL FAVOURITES: Today Daqman looks a week ahead to Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival, with his See How They Won stats and facts knocking out what many see as a sure-fire Wednesday winner. He finds another race where the favourite usually gives way to a rank outsider, at 25-1, 33-1 or even 40-1.
CHAMP LOOKS A CHUMP ON FORM
1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) The stats make out a case for laying the likely favourite, the seven-year-old Champ. Only one winner older than six has won since 1974.
The Challow Hurdle form is also working out badly for Champ. The second and third behind him at Newbury, Getaway Trump and Kateson, have been beaten 14 lengths and 22 lengths respectively since that day.
2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday (RSA Novices’ Chase) Seven-year-olds have won 10 of the last 12. You are trying to forecast a quality winner – such as Denman, Bobs Worth, Might Bite and Presenting Percy- of future Gold Cup standard.
So no surprise that 10 had won a Graded race, and 11 were rated 144 or higher. Eight out of 12 had already scored at Cheltenham.
2.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Coral Cup) The last 15 favourites in this cavalry charge have all failed to score, with nine of the 10 most recent winners at double-figure odds up to 33-1. Only two horses in 19 years have won when over the age of seven.
The Irish are going for a four-timer in a race almost always captured by a top yard. Usual suspects: Elliott, Harrington, Henderson, Mullins, Nicholls.
3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Chase) Nicky Henderson, who won this twice with the majestic Sprinter Sacre, saddles Altior for a repeat, unbeaten in 12 chases.
Douvan came to this in 2017 after 14 straight wins, fences and hurdles, but was well beaten at 9-2 on.
Some 14 out of 16 winners had won at least five times over fences and had run at Cheltenham before. An Irish or French bred has taken the prize in 12 of those years.
4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Cross-Country) Enda Bolger, who has won this three times in 11 years, has been outgunned the last two seasons by Gordon Elliott, Bolger’s Auvergnat and Josies’ Orders running fourth and sixth last year to Elliott’s Tiger Roll.
All three of these were brought back to winning form on the last day but Josie’s Orders is 11 now and horses of his age have failed nine years out of 10 in the decade.
4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Paul Nicholls (three) and Gordon Elliott (two) dominate in the decade, but SPs are enormous: 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice) among them. One favourite sneaked home in 2010.
Joseph O’Brien is attacking the £45,000 first prize with four of the seven market leaders, but his outsider Star Max is the one most likely to on those SP stats.
MILK THE 11.0 WITH CAFE AU LAIT
3.10 Fontwell Lucy Wadham is in tremendous form, with three winners out of six, and I could buy more than seven points for every 10 staked this morning about her long-way Carlisle winner Gregarious rises in class.
But Milton Harris is also in form, and his one-time 108-rated winner Cafe Au Lait is saddled off 94, allowing for his rider’s claim, dropped back to hurdles from fences (one of his chase wins came off 109).
Gregarious is up quarter of a mile and the ground has changed, so I find the BETDAQ 11.0 Cafe Au Lait more tempting.
4.10 Fontwell I’ll hub my Daq Multiples with 1.8 BETDAQ offer Away For Slates, also trained Milton Harris. Doesn’t seem to have broken sweat so far in his hat-trick bid, and is 3lb well in today.
I’M PLUGGING BATH FOR BIG PRIZE
7.00 Kempton (‘Road To The Kentucky Derby’ Stakes) What, no Noseda! The Newmarket trainer introduced the subsequent Grade-1 Belmont Stakes winner, Gronkowski, to take this £43,000 prize a year ago.
For the money and for the future there must be a strong AW type here, but bearing in mind the conditions tonight which should make the Polytrack ride ‘slow’.
John Gosden, who is currently striking at 50%, would be the obvious alternative but his class-4 winner, Daafr, looks well exposed unless a wind op has wrought improvement enough to leap two grades.
Rectory Road is also aimed high. Spanish Mission’s yard is out of form and he hasn’t been seen since November.
Jahbath has climbed the ranks already and would have to give weight all round, were this a handicap. Won on the bit in a Ladbrokes handicap at Southwell recently, having scored back to back here at Kempton in the autumn when the Polytrack was on the slow side.
Getchagetchagetcha kept Pattern company for most of his two-year-old career, and Irish 2,000 Guineas entry, Chairmanoftheboard, an eight-lengths winner on his debut, was also put into a Group race. This one worked at Lingfield on Saturday, so should be fit enough, though was beaten in the gallop by Modern Millie.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Fontwell (won 20)
BET 2pts win and place CAFE AU LAIT
7.00 Kempton (supernap)
BET 20pts win JAHBATH
DAQ MULTIPLES
2 x 1pt win trebles
GREGARIOUS and CAFE AU LAIT (3.10 Fontwell)
X
AWAY FOR SLATES (4.10 Fontwell)
x
JAHBATH (7.00 Kempton)
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