DAQMAN GETS THE LION’S SHARE OF WINNING NAPS: Lion’s Vigil (WON 6-4) landed another January nap for Daqman at Southwell yesterday, and he stays on AW for a best bet at Lingfield this afternoon. He checks out the Grade 2 at Thurles, and goes for another Willie Mullins win but not with the one the layers make favourite.
FORTUNE COOKIES SPOTLIGHT ON WEEKEND SPECIALS: Daqman opens today with a Fortune Cookies list to follow in the next two weekends, at Cheltenham Trials Day on Saturday, and at the two-day Dublin festival at Leopardstown on February 6-7.
FORTUNE COOKIES X1 GO IN TO BAT
⚠️ The Arkle, the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup. They are nearer than you think: the Dublin Festival has its own (February 6 and 7). And they are perfectly placed five weeks from Cheltenham.
Eight Grade-1 events at the Leopardstown two-day meeting are launched by the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, followed immediately by the Gold Cup and the Champion Hurdle in 100 minutes of day one.
The plan for the NH Fortune Cookies this year is to target the Cheltenham Trial meeting this Saturday and that Dublin Festival next weekend.
These are probables from the early-bird list, or new names added to it, all now given Cookies status for the two weekends.
🏇 HEROSS DU SEUIL (Nicky Henderson) Does not seem to be a particularly strong bet against Honneur d’Ajonc in the Triumph Trial (12.40 Cheltenham, Saturday), after that one looked all over the winner before falling at the last at Kempton.
But the Henderson stable is 4-8 in this Triumph Trial (12.40) and, unusually, has the one acceptor in Heross Du Seuil, who was gifted the Kempton race by the faller.
🏇 MIDNIGHT SHADOW (Sue Smith) Sue’s stable has been slow to come to hand but this one has won twice at Cheltenham in January and looks ready for a big purse there on Saturday ( 1.50 Cheltenham).
Second in the Grade-3 December Cup over the same CD, 12 lengths in front of the finishers from the remaining 15. Sue’s middle name is patience.
🏇 MISTER MALARKEY (Colin Tizzard) One of few from the stable who won during their dip in form (on heavy). Fourth in the RSA on this course in 2019.
Won a Grade 2 as a novice and still only eight, whereas four of the six above him in the market are 10 or 11.
And Nicky Henderson warned last night that Santini is only 50-50 for the race, the Cotswold Chase (2.25), which he won last year from Bristol De Mai.
🏇 CROSSHILL (Jessica Harrington) and VANILLIER (Gavin Cromwell) are both engaged in the opening novice hurdle (1.05) at Leopardstown on Saturday week.
They were one-two at Punchestown in October in the BETDAQ 2% Commission Exchange Maiden Hurdle.
🏇 ENVOI ALLEN (Gordon Elliott) has a stable deputy, FELIX DESJY (Gordon Elliott), in the Arkle Novice Chase (2.10, Saturday week).
🏇 PONT AVEN (Willie Mullins, 2.45 Saturday week) remains at the trip which saw him step forward, pulling too hard, second, at Fairyhouse. Strong galloper who can only improve.
🏇 APPRECIATE IT (Willie Mullins) 2.10 Leopardstown, Sunday week.
🏇 BALLYADAM (Gordon Elliott) 2.10 Leopardstown, Sunday week.
🏇 GREAT WHITE SHARK (Willie Mullins) 2.20 Gowran Park, Thursday; 2.40 Leopardstown, Sunday week.
THIS MAY BE A BIG CHANCE FOR ‘ELI’
⭕ 12.45 Thurles Don Cossack won this Grade-2 chase twice on the way to Punchestown Gold Cup (2015) and Cheltenham Gold Cup (2016) success, and the following year Sizing John did the Thurles-Cheltenham double.
Today’s 2m 4f test lines up Allaho (160), Battleoverdoyen (160) and Easy Game (159) within a pound of each other in the ratings but with the race conditions giving a different outcome (all adjusted to 12st):
169 ALLAHO (Willie Mullins) Only 1-5 over fences, and that one win was a beginners chase at Fairyhouse a year ago. Still makes mistakes but well treated here.
As a 3m-hurdle winner, you’d expect him to be a stayer but he drops back in trip today after fourth in the Savills Chase (3m). Third over a similar trip at Cheltenham in the RSA.
163 EASY GAME (Willie Mullins) Too strong for the favourite, Allaho, in a 2m 3f+ beginners’ chase at Leopardstown (December, 2019) but he is a top-of-the-ground horse on racecourse form.
162 BATTLEOVERDOYEN (Gordon Elliott) Giving 2lb, beat Easy Game six lengths at Down Royal in October (2m 3f+). But, like Allaho, well beaten behind Min in the John Durkan at Punchestown.
Verdict: The three principals in the ratings all have their flaws and all are in-and-out performers. Allaho has his big chance, receiving weight from all bar Elimay of the main contenders.
Willie Mullins runs four and, when there are ifs and buts about them all at the front of the market, a fair bet is to look for the improver.
158 ELIMAY (Willie Mullins) The J P McManus grey mare could improve the few pounds to pass Battleoverdoyen and Easy Game, leaving her to scrap it out with Allaho.
The dam had the same sire as Politologue and Don Poli, and Elimay, unbeaten over fences, lost out only narrowly in a Listed hurdle on her reappearance.
With Allaho around even money and Elimay 6.7 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, I shall back ‘Eli” and save stakes on the favourite.
EXPECT TO SUCCEED AT LINGFIELD
⭕ 1.15 Lingfield Sky Defender made all here last January and has placed in Group-3 twice since.
Assimilation’s form beyond a mile and a bit is 000 and United Front, an Aidan O’Brien cast-off, has scored only at 6f, though was just run out of it, stepped up to today’s trip here at Lingfield on the last day.
Power Of States is 4-6 and trying to squeeze another one in under the handicapper’s radar; carries a penalty but has 3lb more in future.
I’ll try BETDAQ 4.5 Sky Defender to boss this small field, the only runner of the day for trainer Mark Johnston currently (12-21) striking at 57%.
⭕ 1.50 Lingfield Expect To Succeed (BETDAQ 3.4) is with another trainer on 50% or better; that’s when Roger Varian has a maiden running at Lingfield.
This one has been gelded.
Better the Laaheb relative disappoints later in life than now, when – beaten favourite twice – he is a banker to get the money back.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.45 Thurles (win 20, with stakes saver)
BET 3.5pts win on each ELIMAY and ALLAHO
1.15 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win SKY DEFENDER
1.50 Lingfield (win 10 nap)
BET 4pts win EXPECT TO SUCCEED
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