ODDS-AGAINST DOUBLE BY DAQMAN’S BEST BETS: Can Daqman land a naps hat-trick today? His back-to-back naps were not just winners. Monday’s was ‘impressive’ and yesterday’s won eight lengths. And both were odds against!
WON 7-4 STAR ARCHER (Monday)
WON 11-8 VOLATILE (Tuesday)
HE HITS UNBEATEN TWO FROM TWO ON THE DAY: After Volatile, Daqman made it another two from two, when he added Archimedes (WON 3-1) at a great price at Southwell for an unbeaten day.
WON 11-8 VOLATILE
WON 3-1 ARCHIMEDES
33-1 ANTE-POST TO WIN 100 ON THE NATIONAL: Today Daqman analyses the Grand National, for which weights were announced in London last night. He picks a likely quartet, from which his first ante-post interest is a 33-1 ton-up bet with BETDAQ about one brought over from Ireland, especially for the race. Daqman’s Natdional bets in the last two years?
WON 33-1 RULE THE WORLD
2ND 16-1 CAUSE OF CAUSES
NATIONAL WINNER? I JUST KNOW
I’m always nervous of the obvious. I was on the Nigel Twiston-Davies Grand National winners, Bindaree (2002) when 33-1 and Earth Summit (1998) when 40-1.
Now he has the favourite for April’s renewal, Blaklion, one of my Fortune Cookies, but I find myself looking elsewhere.
The favourite is always a concern because, overall, he’s not going to win enough times to give me a profit. Second of all, as the man said, Blaklion running off a weight that only two others have carried since Red Rum more than 40 years ago.
Thirdly he’s running in, and likely to win, Saturday’s Haydock Park Grand National Trial, which I have just condemned in this column as the kiss of doom for his chances at Aintree.
Higher weights are winning these days, as in most handicaps, Flat or Jumps, as the handicaps become compacted.
In fact, there’s a long, long National handicap this year, from 11st. 10lb down to 8st 7lb though, obviously, it will reduce to 24lb when the 10st minimum is applied.
Until nearer the time we don’t know which of the 105 runners will fail to make the cut – only 40 are allowed to run – and which will be the lucky ones who take advantage of drop-outs from higher in the handicap. Already the disappointing Bristol De Mai (11st 9lb) is declared a ‘nonner’ by Twiston-Davies.
There’s been only one winner below 10st 6lb in 15 seasons, and only two since 1979 have crept into the handicap at the last minute. Just two since 1989 have won from out of t he handicap. Delete seven-year-olds and those aged 12 and 13. The trainers are important.
I Just Know Sue and Harvey Smith, employing patience and rugged training techniques, have a fine record with stayers and, while the pundits are clocking multiple entries by the big stables, the Smiths quietly nominated an interesting trio.
I Just Know (8-10-4) looks ‘the one most likely to’, currently at number 55. Their two others are Delusionofgrandeur (8-10-1) and Vintage Clouds (8-10-0)
I Just Know jumps well and travels well, likes the better ground, and stepped up markedly – raised a stone – when winning the North Yorkshire Grand National (3m 6f) in January.
Racereaders reported: ‘They went a proper gallop and it was a commanding display.’
Abolitionist Another who took a huge step forward from only four starts and has been sent over from Ireland to Dr Richard Newland with Aintree in mind.
The 10-year-old’s late rise through the ranks began with a second of 25 in the Troytown Chase, was followed by success in the Leinster National and third in the Irish Grand National (described as ‘the only horse to put it up to the winner’). Has 10st 4lb, as they stand at this time, and 33-1 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange this morning.
The Dutchman Entered in Saturday’s Haydock Park trial, and in the Eider Chase a week later.
Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old recorded these form figures as a novice chaser: 13222, still standing.
One of those out of sorts during the Tizzard doldrums, he came back – jumping really well – with success in the Peter Marsh in late January as the stable found its feet again. Set to carry 10st 7lb
Cause Of Causes An old friend to this column at Cheltenham, having won the NH Chase, Kim. Muir and Cross-Country for us.
Another great Spring performance when a near-miss second in the Grand National last year. A modest recent reappearance and we can only hope he didn’t leave this year’s National behind with such an enormous effort last year.
But trainer Gordon Elliott told last night’s weight launch that Causes is in great form and will run first in the cross-country at Cheltenham again.
HARE SET UP FOR MY HAT-TRICK
3.00 Musselburgh Divine Spear, 2-2 over fences this season, is Nicky Henderson’s only runner of the day. Impressive over today’s trip in the autumn, has had a rest to wait for better ground.
A big danger is Derintoher Yank, but he has 6lb to find under the race conditions, and is getting into the bridesmaid’s habit (recent form figures 222).
3.40 Towcester In-form Daryl Jacob partners Delire D’Estruval, his only booked mount of the day, in a level-stakes clash with Harefield, who is around even money this morning.
There was clever money for Harefield, with the Towcester hill looking tailor-made for him to bounce back from a fall over further on the last day, with Alan King back to form after a lean spell.
3.50 Lingfield Let’s try Red Verdon for the treble, with trainer Ed Dunlop getting 100% from his horses, according to the Racing Post’s computer.
DAQMAN’S BETS
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win HAREFIELD (3.40 Towcester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Divine Spear (3.00 Musselburgh), Harefield (3.40 Towcester), Red Verdon (3.50 Lingfield)
ANTE-POST TON-UP BET: 3pts win ABOLITIONIST (at 33-1 with Betdaq for the Grand National)
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