Denver Broncos (10-3, 6-7 ATS) @ San Diego Chargers (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -4 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Denver: RB Ronnie Hillman (questionable– foot), TE Jacob Tamme (questionable– ribs), S Quinton Carter (doubtful– knee), RB Montee Ball (out– groin), OT Paul Cornick (out– toe), WR Cody Latimer (out– ribs)
San Diego: RB Ryan Mathews (questionable– ankle), TE Ladarius Green (questionable– concussion), DT Corey Liuget (questionable– ankle), DT Ryan Carrethers (doubtful– elbow), P Mike Scifres (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Denver is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. AFC West opponents
Denver is 10-21 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning record
San Diego is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
San Diego is 11-5-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these 2 teams
San Diego is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The road team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-2 in Denver’s last 7 games vs. AFC West opponents
The OVER is 30-9 in Denver’s last 39 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-1 in San Diego’s last 5 home games
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos are once again atop the AFC standings and they have a legitimate chance of locking up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the second consecutive season. They’ve been excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking 4th in both total offense and total defense, and they’ve covered in 4 of their last 5 trips to San Diego. They’re a good bet this week against a Chargers team that has covered just once in their last 8 games overall.
2. Peyton Manning is at it again, as the Broncos average nearly 300 passing yards and 30 points per game. Manning shouldn’t have any trouble carving up a San Diego defense that has surrendered 23 points or more in 7 of their past 8 games. When these teams met back in Week 8 Manning threw for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 35-21 win, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this time around.
3. The Chargers have steadily regressed over the course of the season, particularly on offense, where they’re averaging fewer than 20 points per game over their past 7 contests. The Denver defense is better than most realize– they rank 4th in yards allowed and 2nd against the run– so it would be unwise to assume that San Diego will be able to move the ball in this game. In two of their last three home games– a Week 11 win over Oakland and a loss to New England last week– the San Diego offense has produced 14 points or fewer.
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers have turned things around after a rough stretch in the middle of the season, winning 3 of their past 4 games despite facing quality opposition like New England, Baltimore, and St. Louis. They’re a juicy 4-point home underdog this week against a Denver team that’s a shell of the squad that won the AFC a year ago. The Broncos have covered just twice in their last 6 games and their recent road performances have included blowout losses to New England and St. Louis.
2. It’s no secret that Denver doesn’t have a great offensive line, so maybe that’s a valid explanation, but it sure looks as if Peyton Manning is declining rapidly. Manning no longer has his “fastball”, a truth that was evident to anyone who saw him against Buffalo last week, when he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 51 games. Because of Manning’s struggles the Denver offense has been held below 30 points 4 times in their past 6 games, a stretch that would’ve been unthinkable for last year’s record-setting bunch. It doesn’t get any easier this week, as the San Diego defense ranks in the top-half of the league in every major statistical category.
3. Thanks to the presence of Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers the Chargers have an offense that can hang with anybody. They’ve scored 27 points or more six times this season, most recently two weeks ago, when they went on the road and hung 34 on a Baltimore defense that came into the game ranked 6th in points allowed. The Broncos are a middling 16th in points allowed and they have trouble in the secondary, so another big day from Rivers and the San Diego offense is a distinct possibility.
Prediction
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