It is difficult to know what to do with Kingsbarns in this afternoon’s Racing Post Trophy. A once-raced maiden winner in a Group 1 race, the 3.05 favourite, your natural instinct is to take him on all day long. Then you remember Camelot.
The similarities between Kingsbarns this year and Camelot last year are uncanny. Both trained by Aidan O’Brien, both favourites for the Racing Post Trophy, both boasting champion sons of Sadler’s Wells as sires. This time last year, Camelot went into the Racing Post Trophy as a once-raced easy maiden winner, just as Kingsbarns does today. Also, Camelot was sent off a 1/3 shot for his maiden; Kingsbarns was sent of a 4/11 shot for his.
That is important. When a Ballydoyle horse – or, indeed, any horse – is sent off that short for his maiden on his racecourse debut, you can be sure that he is working the house down. Neither horse disappointed on their public bows: both won as easily as they wanted to.
There are differences though. Camelot made his racecourse debut in July, Kingsbarns didn’t make his until October. He wasn’t even entered in today’s race at the original entry stage, he had to be supplemented on Tuesday. Probably a late developer, then, the Galileo colt betrayed his inexperience in that Navan maiden, which is both a positive and a negative in the context of today’s race. On the positive side, he won by seven lengths despite running green, and he should come on a ton for the experience. On the negative side, that race was only two and a half weeks ago. He may still be too inexperienced for a Group 1 contest.
The other positive is that Aidan O’Brien took his other five horses out of the race at declaration stage on Thursday, which is a significant vote of confidence in Kingsbarns. However, there just doesn’t appear to be the thou-shalt-not-lose weight of confidence behind him that there was behind Camelot last year, and he is very short at 3.05 in what looks like a hot Racing Post Trophy.
It is more difficult to be against Trading Leather at 3.85. Jim Bolger’s colt was impressive in winning his maiden at Gowran Park on just his second run last month – he wasn’t beaten far by original ante post favourite for today’s race, Battle Of Marengo, in a listed race at Leopardstown on his racecourse debut two weeks previously – and he showed a really likeable attitude to land the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket on Future Champions Day, battling on well on the stands rail to fend of the potentially highly-talented Montiridge.
Two worries about Trading Leather. Firstly, he has been very busy of late. Today’s run will be his second in two weeks and his fourth in seven weeks. Secondly, Bolger says that he is at his best on good or fast ground, and he is not going to have that today.
Steeler is a more attractive betting proposition at around 4.8. Steeler is tough. We saw his toughness when he finished second to Dundonnell in the Acomb Stakes over an inadequate seven furlongs in August, and we saw it again when he won the Royal Lodge over a mile late last month. He ground out victory that day, but it never really looked like he was going to lose, he and Kieren Fallon forming a symbiotic partnership that zinged and that took them past Artigiano, with the front pair clear of their field.
Soft ground today is a little bit of a concern, but only because he hasn’t raced on soft before. As against that, however, he has run well on good to soft, his rider says he won’t mind getting his toe in, and he is bred to stay further than a mile in time, so the extra premium that the ground should place on stamina will be in his favour. Also, with five runs under his girth, he is more experienced than all but one of his rivals, and that will be in his favour if the race develops into a battle for survival, as it could well do for juveniles over a mile on soft ground.
The St Simon Stakes at Newbury could rest between Noble Mission and Hawaafez. Noble Mission has the best form in the race, he beat subsequent St Leger winner Encke by a nose in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood before he got beaten in a slowly-run Great Voltigeur. He didn’t take his chance in the Leger, but the fact that Sir Henry Cecil has kept him in training is significant.
It is difficult to see Camborne or Willing Foe or Songcraft reverse Cumberland Lodge form with Hawaafez, even on 3lb better terms. Camborne would be a danger if he put his mind to it, but Marcus Tregoning’s filly appeared to win with so much in hand that she should have that trio’s measure again.
She does have to progress to beat Noble Mission, but there is every chance that she will. She should relish the soft ground and, given that she is a winner over one and three-quarter miles, she should be well suited by the extra premium that the ground will place on stamina.
She may not get to lead early on with Harris Tweed in the line-up, but she proved when she won a fillies’ handicap at Newmarket on her final run last season that she doesn’t have to lead. She is one for one at the track, and she could make it two for two today.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
