Main thoughts on Christmas racing so far? Jezki was decidedly Hurricane Fly-esque in coming clear of his rivals from the final flight in the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown on Thursday. This is the race in which Willie Mullins’s horse’s turn of foot was first brought into high definition, four whole years ago, would you believe. It is stretching it to say that Jezki will prove to be as good as Hurricane Fly, but he did show a seriously impressive turn of foot against good rivals, and he could be very good indeed.
Sizing Europe was correct to spend Christmas at home and run in the Dial-A-Bet Chase instead of having his Christmas dinner in Sunbury and running in the King George. So the ante post money was lost, but it probably would have been lost anyway, so gruelling a contest did the King George turn out to be in the end. Another Grade 1 victory for Henry de Bromhead’s remarkable horse, but it may be that two and a half miles is his trip now as a near-11-year-old, not two miles.
Flemenstar doesn’t fully stay three miles. He travelled like the best horse in the Lexus Chase, but he just didn’t last home. You have to hope that Peter Casey and Stephen Curran don’t persevere with him over three miles now, that they don’t run him in the Hennessy, that they do the right thing and drop him down to two and a half miles, possibly even two, and ride him aggressively. That’s what suits him, they are the conditions in which he can be at his most effective. His Cheltenham target now has to be the Ryanair Chase or even the Champion Chase.
Three miles on soft ground is a minimum for Back In Focus, and it is a maximum for Aupcharlie, who is now a super jumper of fences going left-handed as well as going right-handed. Arvika Ligeonniere is probably at his best going right-handed, Sir Des Champs needs to jump better if he is to win a Gold Cup, Simonsig is still a machine, Ruby Walsh is still a brilliant National Hunt rider, Monksland is a genuine World Hurdle contender, Tidal Bay could have been up there with Kauto Star and Denman in the Gold Cups of the late noughties if Paul Nicholls had got his hands on him earlier, Darlan could be a bit special.
And they are just the headlines.
Strange day today, the final day of Leopardstown’s four in Ireland, the Saturday after Kempton’s King George meeting has sucked the best horses dry, when the Nintendo Wii has lost its novelty value and the turkey carcass has been given to the cat.
I wanted to back Taquin Du Seuil in the Challow Hurdle, but he’s shorter than you would want now. I wanted to back Lord Windermere in the two-mile-three-furlong beginners’ chase at Leopardstown, the race that has been won in the recent past by Zaarito and Hidden Cyclone, but same story, he’s too short. I wanted to back Triptico in the three-mile handicap chase at Doncaster, but I was hoping for bigger than 5.0. I still might, mind you.
I thought African Gold would be a little bigger than 6.0 in the two-mile-five-furlong handicap hurdle at Newbury, but he is probably still a little over-priced at that. Nigel Twiston-Davies’s horse has progressed with each of his three runs over hurdles this term to date, finishing second on his debut at Carlisle on heavy ground in October, and then winning his next two.
His latest winning run was particularly likeable. He travelled well through the race, challenged the leader Faultless Feelings at the second last, and stayed on well over the final two flights to win nicely, despite the fact that he was out in the centre of the track, while the runner-up had the stands rail against which to race.
Significantly, that run was over today’s course and distance, and on soft ground. It will probably be even softer today than it was then, but a proven ability to handle the soft ground that is specific to a particular track is an important asset these days, with soft ground apparently the order of the season.
The handicapper has raised African Gold 8lb for that run, but it was just his third run over hurdles, he still has considerable scope for progression. Also, that race is working out really well. The runner-up ran well to finish an admittedly remote third behind Loose Chips in a good handicap hurdle at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day off a 5lb higher mark, a race in which Bathwick Brave, who fell at the fourth last in the Newbury race, finished a close second. Also, the fourth horse, Ivor’s King, came out and finished a close-up third in another good handicap hurdle at Kempton on Thursday, while even the sixth horse, John’s Gem, won a handicap hurdle at Plumpton last week.
African Gold is 3lb out of the handicap today, which is not ideal, but that is countered by the fact that he has just 10st to carry in very soft ground.
Salubrious is obviously a big danger, he ran a cracker to finish second to the exciting At Fishers Cross at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting, a 4lb hike is not harsh, and At Fishers Cross has since come out and looked really impressive in winning a good handicap at Cheltenham’s December meeting off a 9lb higher mark.
However, it looks like Salubrious has been priced up on the back of a literal reading of that Newbury form, and that may be a mistake. At Fishers Cross didn’t jump that well at Newbury, he jumped much better at Cheltenham. Also, he beat Salubrious fairly comprehensively in the end, and the rest of the race is not working out well, with both the third and fourth horses – the only other horses from the race who have run since – well beaten in races for which they were sent off, respectively, joint favourite and second favourite.
Paul Nicholls’s horse has plenty of scope for progression, and he should be suited by the slight step up in trip, but he doesn’t have Ruby Walsh today either, and, all things into the mix, he is short enough at 3.8.
Bakbenscher will love the ground, but the Haydock race that he won last time fell apart a little in front of him, a 6lb penalty makes things more difficult, and he is also short enough at 5.7. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Any Given Day run a big race at a decent price on his seasonal debut – he won on his debut last term – and Dolatulo could out-perform massive odds, but African Gold at 6.0 represents fair value.
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