12.0 SUNDANCE ‘KID’ LOOKS BONNIE AT DONNY: Offers of 29.0, 14.0 and a ‘massive’ 12.0 Richard’s Sundance (‘the layers must be kidding’ at Doncaster) are some of the BETDAQ bets for Saturday-king Daqman today.
DAQMAN NAPS VENDOR: Daqman’s naps have been in top gear over Christmas with form figures of 131112 and he landed 112 points profit in three days until spending some of his winnings yesterday. Today’s nap is Vendor.
They can’t win if they don’t jump. Both Dedigout and Sir Des Champs found it difficult to get off the ground in the Leopardstown mud yesterday, and today’s Mandarin at Newbury will be another ploughing match on heavy.
1.35 Newbury (Hallowe’en Chase) This race was Kauto Star’s winning British debut (2004) and, since then, such as Fair Along, Hennessy runner-up Planet of Sound and Cue Card have all won it.
Paul Nicholls is 11211 in the race but Ruby Walsh – who has ridden three of them – is at Leopardstown for Hurricane Fly today.
The Ditcheat hope is Bury Parade, who ‘jumped impeccably’ (quote unquote Timeform) on his chasing debut. He has to give 7lb to Module (needs to put in a clear round) and Colour Squadron but Tony McCoy feels that one will improve ‘considerably’ for the run.
I’m taking Bury Parade at 3.7 on BETDAQ (in a 106% list of offers) and Easter Day at 5.3 in the Challow Hurdle later on, assuming that Ditcheat will take one or other. Those are prices I can work with.
2.00 Leopardstown (Istabraq Hurdle) Since Istabraq himself in 2001, this race has been the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle stepping-stone of Brave Inca (2006) and Hurricane Fly (2010), who returns here, connections hoping the first leg today will put him back on track for the same double after Rock On Ruby diminished his stardom last March.
Old rival Thousand Stars has been second and fourth in this. Unaccompanied has won it. Her success last season followed a November Listed at Naas but she’s been absent over the sticks almost a year, though had a pipe-opener on the Flat 55 days ago.
She has nearly a stone to find with Hurricane Fly and, unless she takes a big leap forward here, her likely target is not the Champion Hurdle but the Mares’ Final.
2.10 Newbury (Mandarin Chase) This was always listed as the ninth Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, following the Charlie Hall Chase (Silviniaco Conti), Down Royal Champion Chase (Kauto Stone), Amlin Chase (Captain Chris), BF Chase (Silviniaco Conti), Hennessy (Bobs Worth), John Durkan (Flemenstar), King George (Long Run) and Lexus (Fingal Bay).
Now we have only the Argento (26 January, Cheltenham), Irish Hennessy (9 February, Leopardstown), Denman Chase (9 February, Newbury) and Ascot Chase (16 February). Have you found the winner yet?
We can expect current-ratings revision after the successes of Long Run and Tidal Bay in the King George and the Lexus to give us official ratings somewhere in the region of Long Run 174, Silviniaco Conti 172, Bobs Worth 172, Flemenstar 172 and Tidal Bay 170, the rest nowhere.
The last five (first time) Gold Cup winners have scored off 169, 179, 174, 176 and 177. The top two rated in this Mandarin are running off 130, and the latest version of this stamina test is clearly a shadow of its former self.
That first winner of the new Mandarin last year was Rey Nacarado, who is back for more, but Noel Fehily prefers the same stable’s Pete The Feat, though this is his first step up a grade from class-4.
Midnight Haze (29.0 on BETDAQ this morning) could bounce back after attempting cross-country banks and Grand National fences, and Relax (14.0) is massively better off with State Benefit on Sandown form. I’ll save on Pete The Feat.
2.45 Newbury (Challow Novices’ Hurdle) I’ve deserted my horses to follow lately (full review next week), but I won’t be ducking Easter Day, though Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this since Denman.
Easter Day and Clondaw Kaempfer are locked together on an official 140 rating – so Easter Day’s 5.3 offer was value – but don’t forget Taquin Du Seuil, who impressed Tony McCoy at Sandown.
Whether or not you back Taquin Du Seuil, if he runs well keep an eye out for his Ascot conqueror, My Tent Or Yours (3.50) Newbury), though that one has to prove he goes on the ground.
With this seemingly intense competition for the Challow Hurdle, where this is D-Day for three potentially top novices, the BETDAQ offers in the orange this morning added up to 101%, compared with a ‘best price’ 106% between 15 bookmakers, and last year’s SP total probability of 113%.
3.15 Newbury This is not straightforward: Bakbenscher has never put back-to-back wins together before – his form after a win is 02U02 – Nicky Henderson is worried about the ground for Top of The Range, and Salubrious is up in the weights for ‘getting beat.’
However, Salubrious represents the form of the progressive At Fishers Cross, and is my saver on the day I’m following Paul Nicholls. He certainly has a good peg in all three races, and I just hope the going doesn’t see him get waterlicked!
DONCASTER: Alan King thinks a lot of Vendor’s chance of rising high in the chasing tanks (1.15). Victor Dartnall will have been planning his comeback carefully and Richard’s Sundance (2.55) was a massive price at offers of 12.0 this morning, as a front-runner who loves heavy ground. The layers must be kidding!
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 6.8pts win (nap) VENDOR (1.15 Doncaster)
DAQ VALUE: BET 7.4pts win BURY PARADE (1.35 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE: BET 1.5pts win and place RELAX and 0.7pts win and place MIDNIGHT HAZE, plus 1.6pts win (stakes saver) PETE THE FEAT (2.10 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE: BET 4.6pts win EASTER DAY (2.45 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE: BET 1.8pts win and place RICHARD’S SUNDANCE (2.55 Doncaster)
DAQ VALUE: BET 7.4pts win SALUBRIOUS (3.15 Newbury)
* All bets are staked to win 20 points, except the saver, which is staked to cover the cost of two other bets in the race. Daq Value indicates races with a total probability this morning of between 101% and 109%.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
