Some days are easier than others in anticipating who will be in the hunt on the PGA Tour each weekend. Last week, this column came close to nailing a 160.0 winner in Chris Stroud, who was beaten on the second play-off hole. In fact, four of our initial six selections finished in the top seven. Close, but no big, honkin’ stogie.
The Travelers Championship did, as anticipated, produce another first-time Tour winner in Ken Duke. Six of the last eight renewals have now gone to first-time winners.
Course form is also relevant this week as we head to the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, in the greater Washington D.C. area, for the AT&T National, which has a relatively short history.
This will be the seventh edition of the tournament, with just four of the previous six being held at Congressional CC. The U.S. Open in 2011 and Rory McIlroy’s stunning eight-shot victory over Jason Day was also played here.
Congressional is a par 71 over 7,569 yards. It features three par 5s, four par 3s and 11 par 4s. It is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour and Driving Distance is going to be a useful statistic to aid in our selections. The premium is on ball-striking, and distance is more important here than most places. But at the same time, it is a course that doesn’t readily identify a particular type of player or highlight a specific strength. It’s nice to be long, but probably better to be straight. If a player is a putter/scrambler, he’s got a chance because the scores won’t go too low. The same can be said for an elite ball-striker with a balky putter.
Neither McIlroy nor Tiger Woods (who won this tournament in 2009 and 2012) will be playing here this week. McIlroy is taking part in the Irish Open, while Woods, who runs this event in conjunction with his foundation, is nursing an elbow injury, picked up in winning The Players Championship and aggravated when recording his worst ever U.S. Open score (13 over par, 12 shots behind the winner, Justin Rose) at Merion.
The field is top heavy, but isn’t all that deep. Many of the European players have skipped back across the pond for the upcoming British Open. There are also some other big-named Americans aside from Woods holding out of the event including Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley.
When AT&T National was last contested at Congressional in 2009, Tiger Woods won with a score of 267 by a stroke over Hunter Mahan. Woods was T3 in GIR, 4th in driving distance, T7 in driving accuracy and T13 in putts per round that week.
Previous results here suggest that recognisable names should be worth concentrating on and unlike at River Highlands, a first-time winner is not so likely. Past winners also include K.J. Choi (2007) and Anthony Kim (2008). Runners-up are equally well-known: Steve Stricker (2007), Freddie Jacobson (2008), Hunter Mahan (2009), Jason Day (2011) and Bo Van Pelt (2012).
Last week’s analysis of the Travelers suggested that come-from-behind winners were not uncommon and Ken Duke’s final round of four-under-par, which propelled him to a playoff, underlined this trend.
In contrast, it is worth noting for trading purposes that the majority of winners at Congressional have been up at the top, or very near the top, of the leader board heading into the weekend.
Either way, this tournament still has a wide-open feel about it and it could get very messy, as thunderstorms are predicted. Forecasts call for a 40 percent chance of storms through Thursday, before jumping to 70 percent Friday. Sunday also carries a 60 percent chance.
Masters champion Adam Scott, third in this event in the last two years, heads the field with fellow Aussie Jason Day, who finished eighth here last year and third in the U.S. Open in 2011.
So who are our five to follow this week?
Adam Scott @ 13.0
It isn’t flashy. It isn’t sexy. But it is the safe pick. Scott is now well used to this light campaign and he’s playing some glorious golf. The harder this course plays, the better we like his chances. While he missed the cut in the 2011 U.S. Open and the 2007 AT&T National, he is on a run of making 18 consecutive cuts. Added to that, he’s got three stroke-play top 10s on the PGA Tour this year (including a Masters triumph). Statistically, he stacks up well. He’s 36th in GIR, 16th in Driving Distance and 19th in Ball Striking. If he plays as well as he did in his final three rounds in last year’s tournament, when finishing third, he deservedly has a favourite’s chance.
Hunter Mahan @ 19.5
In the four previous times this event has been contested at Congressional he finished T8 in 2012, second to Tiger Woods in 2009, T12 in 2008 and T8 in 2007. His Driving Accuracy Percentage (23rd), Total Driving (5th) and ball-striking shouldn’t be an issue (15th). As ever, it will come down to his putter from outside of 5ft. At his best, he’s one of the five best drivers on the planet. His struggles invariably are with the flat stick. An average week with the putter and he should be a contender.
Jim Furyk @ 43.0
How important is a caddie? In this instance, the answer is very important. Mike “Fluff” Cowan is a member of Congressional CC, where he and his wife Jennifer reside. He also happens to be Jim Furyk’s caddie. Little wonder that “The Grinder” has been consistently good on this track, finishing T7 2009, T3 2008 and T3 2007. You can perhaps forgive his T34 last year, as his failure to seal the deal in the U.S. Open two weeks previously was playing on his mind. While he has not been as consistent coming into this tournament this year as he was last year, he has two top-10s (Tampa Bay and Texas Open) under his belt and should be refreshed from a break after missing the cut at the U.S. Open. With Tiger lying low, the horse-for-the-course mantle goes to Jim.
Ryan Palmer @ 52.0
The Texas A&M graduate has finished T15-T21-T22 in his last three visits to Congressional (including the 2011 U.S. Open). He missed the cut at Merion, having finished fourth in the St Jude Classic. You can’t really worry about that MC, as Merion is very unlike this course. Ranked 37th in Ball Striking, 10th in Driving Distance and sixth in Total Birdies, the player with the best Scoring Average on the Tour could make a big run at securing his fourth victory.
Lucas Glover @ 275.0
If you are looking for a left-field back-to-lay pick, someone with a dodgy Justin Bieber haircut, a man who is a Major winner but who is also a ridiculous price, then Lucas Glover must be in the mix. He is on a run of four consecutive missed cuts, but does have prior course form: he was T42 at the 2011 U.S. Open, T5 at the 2009 AT&T National, T54 in 2008 and T12 in 2007. He still has the game that won the 2009 U.S. Open and while a knee injury limited him to just 16 events last year, he has shown flashes of form since, with a T4 in the Honda Classic, another T4 in New Orleans and a T27 in the Wells Fargo Championship. Yes, he’s been more bust than boom, but he’s one of the better drivers off the tee and ranks in the top 50 in Ball Striking.
Tournament Match Bets
Bo Van Pelt to beat Graham DeLaet
DeLaet is the top Ball Striker and also the second-best driver on Tour, according to the stats. He is also in form, as he produced a great third-place finish at River Highlands. But will those exertions see him dip a little? Van Pelt finished runner-up here last year and has been very consistent, making his last eight cuts and his T14 at the U.S. Open here in 2011 adds to his course form.
Hunter Mahan to beat Brandt Snedeker
While we have made a case for Mahan, questions still have to be asked of Snedeker, who does not appear to be in the same sort of form as he was before his rib injury. He does rank 23rd in ball-striking, and was T5 here in 2009 and T11 in the 2011 U.S. Open, so it is a close call.
Billy Horschel to beat Rickie Fowler
Horschel is Mr Consistency this season, with six top 10s in his last eight tournaments, including victory in New Orleans and a T4 at Merion in the U.S. Open. Though not particularly long off the tee, he is eighth in total driving and second in Par 4 Birdie or Better percentage. He also tops the charts in birdies and is 11th in the ball striking category. Fowler may be a little more accurate off the tee, but he is no birdie machine.
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