Thursday was brutally tough at PGA National, as more players finished the opening round at +6 or worse than broke par. That leaves us in a bit of an awkward spot with the 2nd round 3-balls; after all, no one wants to throw money at a guy who is coming off a 77 or 78. There are a couple of bets that I think may be worth making, though:
Ben Martin (3.25) vs. Luke Donald (2.4) vs. Charl Schwartzel (3)
Schwartzel is a world-class player who is probably a better week-to-week bet to win than either Donald or Martin, but he’s coming off an uncharacteristically poor performance at Riviera, a course he usually owns, and he posted a 9-over par 79 yesterday, so you’ll have to forgive me if I look elsewhere here. Ben Martin played well yesterday, firing an even-par 70, but he’s missed his last two cuts and had never played PGA National in competition prior to this week. Donald, on the other hand, has a great history at the Honda, winning in 2006, finishing 2nd in 2008, and notching top-10s in 2011 and last year, when he finished 8th. He broke par yesterday and is only 4 back of the lead, and he’s as steady as they come, so I don’t expect him to tumble down the leaderboard today. A good bet despite the relatively short odds. Recommendation: Donald at 2.4
Lee Westwood (1.85) vs. Chad Campbell (3.4) vs. Chad Collins (4.5)
Lee Westwood is far and away the most accomplished player in this group, no one would dispute that. However, the odds here are uncomfortably short and it’s caused me to take a long, hard look at the other two guys. I mean, it’s not like Westwood is immune to playing poorly– he did make six bogies yesterday, after all– and it’s not like the other two don’t have the ability to shoot a good round. Campbell, for instance, has played well over the last three weeks and was able to match Westwood’s 1-over par 71 yesterday. At better than 2/1 on my money, I think I’ll take my chances with him today. Recommendation: Campbell at 3.4
Martin Kaymer (2.5) vs. Phil Mickelson (3.35) vs. Sergio Garcia (2.8)
It’s no secret that Phil Mickelson has been struggling with his putting, and that’s the primary reason why he’s played poorly thus far in 2015. However, he rolled it alright yesterday and he currently sits just six back of the lead, in prime position to make a move if he can just summon one of those classic Mickelson birdie runs. Both Kaymer and Sergio have fared better than Mickelson over the past few weeks, but Sergio has his own putting issues– issues that cropped up in yesterday’s 2-over par round– and Kaymer does not have a good history at this event, missing the cut last year and finishing 51st in 2013. It’s so tempting to take Lefty and those long odds, and I’ve always been a slave to temptation. Recommendation: Mickelson at 3.35
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