With tournaments in Dubai, Mexico, and Buenos Aires this week, there’s plenty of action on tap for tennis fans and bettors around the world. BETDAQ has markets for every match, of course, and we’ve studied them all in search of value. Here’s what we came up with for Friday:
ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Novak Djokovic (1.14) vs. Tomas Berdych (8)
The great thing about betting tennis is also the unfortunate thing about betting tennis: certain players win nearly all the time. That means you can ride those players, viewing them as “blue chip” investments who keep your money safe, but it also means you’ll pay a heavy price for doing so, as those players usually come with prohibitive odds. Djokovic is the prime example of such a player: the man hardly ever loses, but backing him always means biting the bullet with the short odds. Sometimes that bullet is pretty tasty though, and today Djokovic will be facing Tomas Berdych, a man he absolutely owns. Djokovic is 17-2 in his career against Berdych and 15-0 on hard courts, which is the surface in Dubai. Plus, this is the semifinals of a fairly big tournament, so the Djoker should be fully locked-in. Death, taxes, and Novak Djokovic. Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.14
Buenos Aires Open
Juan Monaco (2.04) vs. Pablo Cuevas (1.91)
Cuevas is seeded 3rd in Buenos Aires while Monaco is unseeded, but don’t be surprised if this match is very competitive. You see, Cuevas has never beaten Monaco. Yes, they haven’t played in nearly four years, but still: Monaco has only dropped one set over four matches against Cuevas. In a sport where styles and matchups mean everything, that mustn’t be overlooked. That being said, a lot has changed over the last four years, especially for Cuevas, a one-time unknown who has now cracked the top-25 of the world rankings. Monaco’s career has moved in the opposite direction and he’s really been struggling this year, losing 6 of the 8 matches he’s played heading into this week. I’ll be surprised if history repeats itself here. Recommendation: Cuevas at 1.91
ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Kei Nishikori (1.18) vs. Kevin Anderson (4)
As is mentioned above, tennis is a sport where prohibitive favorites nearly always come out on top (I guess that could be said of all sports, but it seems to be especially true of tennis). While Kei Nishikori may not be on Novak Djokovic’s level when it comes to “blue chip” investments, he’s established himself as one of the very best players in the world and he’s especially deadly on hard courts, which means Kevin Anderson will have his hands full today. Of course, Anderson has been playing some pretty good tennis himself. The young South African with the monster serve has had several good results this year, including his recent run to the final in Memphis. He did lose that final to none other than Mr. Nishikori, but it was fairly competitive (6-4, 6-4) and it was clear that he had the arsenal to beat Nishikori if he was on his game. Nishikori is an athletic marvel who wears opponents down with his speed and consistency, but he won’t overpower you and his style of tennis often allows opponents to “hang around” late into the match. Betting against Nishikori on a hard court is a bit risky, no doubt, but at the current price I think Anderson is an excellent value. Recommendation: Anderson at 4
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