New Orleans Saints (5-8, 5-8 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (5-8, 5-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -3 (54)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: OT Terron Armstead (questionable– neck), LB Junior Galette (questionable– knee)
Chicago: DT Jay Ratliff (questionable– knee), DE Cornelius Washington (questionable– ankle), K Robbie Gould (questionable– quadricep), G Michael Ola (questionable– back), S Chris Conte (doubtful– back), WR Brandon Marshall (out– ribs)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday night games
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday night games
Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 road games
The OVER is 8-2 in New Orleans’ last 10 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Chicago’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 9-3 in Chicago’s last 12 games vs. NFC opponents
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints will be leading the NFC South if they win here, so this is obviously a critically important game for them. The same can’t be said for the Bears, who have been eliminated from playoff contention and will only be playing for pride. Based on what we’ve seen out of them lately, I’m not sure “pride” is much of a motivating factor with this bunch. Dysfunction is the order of the day in Chicago, as offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer was forced to apologize to the team this week after being outed as the “anonymous” source that criticized quarterback Jay Cutler in the media. The team has now lost 5 of their past 7 games, with each loss coming by double-digits. Yes, bettors are advised to stay far, far away from the sinking Bears. New Orleans may be struggling, but they’ve won two straight road games and they desperately need another win this week. A Saints bet is the only sensible play here.
2. The Chicago offense, which was supposed to be the strength of the team this season, has been terribly disappointing, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in both total yards per game and points scored. Jay Cutler has done some very Jay Cutler-like things and currently leads the NFL in turnovers, while his best receiver, Brandon Marshall, has been placed on Injured Reserve with a rib injury. The Bears have yet to score more than 28 points in any game and they’ve scored 23 or fewer in 6 of their past 7. They cannot be trusted.
3. The Saints rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense and 9th in points scored, so they’re obviously very dangerous on that side of the ball. In their last road game they produced 35 points in a win over Pittsburgh, and this week they’re facing the abysmal Chicago defense, a unit that ranks 32nd (that’s right… dead last) in points allowed, surrendering over 29 per game. So… the Bears allow an average of 29.1 points per game but they haven’t scored more than 28 points in any game this season. That is an accurate statement. Place your bets accordingly.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears have won 2 of their past 3 home games yet they’re underdogs this week against a New Orleans team that is totally disintegrating. The Saints have lost 4 of their past 5 and last week they suffered a 31-point drubbing at the hands of a Carolina team that was riding a 6-game losing streak of their own. The face that New Orleans is favored here probably shouldn’t come as a surprise, though, when you consider just how overrated/overvalued they’ve been this season. Remember, back in September many regarded the Saints as a Super Bowl contender. That bias still lingers– they were a double-digit favorite against Carolina last week before losing 41-10. Don’t be surprised if they take another beating on Monday night.
2. The Chicago offense is filled with as much skill-position talent as any unit in the league and they’re led by a quarterback with the “arm talent” to make all the throws. This week they face a New Orleans defense that has been truly awful this season, ranking 31st in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. And they’ve surrendered 107 combined points in their last three games, so they sure aren’t improving.
3. Slowly but surely, the Chicago defense is improving. They’ve allowed 13 points or fewer in 2 of their past 3 home games, so they should have a fighting chance against a New Orleans offense that is coming off a 10-point performance against Carolina’s 29th-ranked defense. And when you think “stadiums/playing surfaces that adversely affect the high-octane New Orleans offense”, Soldier Field is one of the first places that comes to mind, isn’t it?
Prediction
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