Before we take a look at Thursday’s Week 4 opener between the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens, here are a few Week 3 yellow baby ghosts we’d like to have thrown on Sunday, but couldn’t because we were too busy filling in for some guys at Footlocker who had to be elsewhere.
Upon further review… Officials upheld the challenge and determined that all Week 3’s seemingly incorrect suggestions were, in fact, winning suggestions. Sooner or later it had to happen. The only surprise was why it took so long.
No, not a losing week for this pigskin prognosticator (a strange slate of results meant there was carnage everywhere you looked in the punditry field). This was more obvious, more black and white. The replacement zebras, in over their heads, made mistake that directly affected the outcome of two games.
Green Bay were robbed twice – by a blatant offensive pass-interference infraction that was not called on a winning last-second Hail Mary, a pass that Seattle receiver Golden Tate was subsequently adjudged to have caught, even though it was clearly Green Bay’s M.D. Jennings who came down with the ball. It should have been ruled as an interception. If it was a case of Cluelesss in Seattle, it was blue murder in Baltimore. The Ravens’ game-winning kick followed a phantom pass-interference call against New England Patriots’ receiver Devin McCourty on Jacoby Jones.
Both games were on prime-time TV and both calls went the way of the home team. Verdict: the replacement officials bottled it.
One in the irony column for Belligerent Bill and the Krafty One. Bill Belichick’s paymaster, Robert Kraft, was widely lauded for brokering the deal that ended the impasse between the NFL owners and the players last summer.
Bob will be rightly fuming at the League for allowing these impostors from Footlocker to continue to officiate while they lock out the authentic referees.
The Ravens received plenty of phantom calls in their favour as they avenged their AFC Championship loss to the Patriots. We’re sure the replacement refs are very nice people.
But perhaps the League (i.e. the owners) should pay the real refs their due and end this farce. Because if they don’t, rules are going to be pushed to the limit and fines are going to increase for the irate coaches and players… hang on a minute. The cynic in me says that’s what this is all about. The NFL may be treading a fine line by angering and alienating fans, but they will continue to coin it in. Tell me I’m wrong. Broncos coach John Fox was fined $30,000 on Monday and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio who copped a $25,000 fine for verbal abuse of the officials during a Monday night game against Atlanta. They’ll be more fines to come – that’s the lock of the season.
Oakland’s defence: Hardly the seven blocks of granite. The Raiders resemble something nearer to the Seven Dwarfs than Fordham’s famous offensive line of the 1930s. It’s not going to be a fairytale ending for offensive coordinator Jason Tarver if Dopey, Sleepy and the rest of the rearguard do not learn to tackle better. Oakland may have got off the mark with a fortunate victory over Pittsburgh but they still conceded 433 yards and 31 points, following on from a 35-point, 452-yard shellacking at Miami. Injuries are a problem – every team has them – but worryingly for Oakland, the reserves collectively appear to be too often bereft of the fundamentals.
Jack Del Rio coaches old-school defence. The NFL are considering a one-game suspension for Denver’s linebacker Joe Mays, who landed a helmet-to-helmet hit on Houston quarterback Matt Schaub. But here’s another idea. Why not levy a ban against the coaches who teach this kind of viciousness? Banning coaches seems to work, as any New Orleans Saints’ fan will tell you.
Out of the dog house. Welcome back, Wes Welker. The receiver did as he has been doing for the last five years – repeatedly making important grabs to keep the chains moving for New England in their 31-30 loss to Baltimore. If the previous two weeks showed anything, the Patriots need Welker more than he needs them. Pay the man. And pay him well.
Minnesota and Atlanta: dogs provide a history lesson. History has a funny habit of repeating itself in the NFL. Indian signs, voodoo, any common or garden spiritualism con-trick, call it what you will, but some teams simply can’t beat others.
Minnesota dumped 6.5-point favourites San Francisco for the tenth time in their last 13 home meetings, while San Diego fell to Atlanta for the eighth time in nine meetings.
The San Diego weather clearly suits the Falcons, who have won there on all six visits. Just for good measure, Green Bay have never won back-to-back road trips in Seattle; having won on their previous visit, they promptly lost there on Monday night.
San Diego’s winning record: a product of the schedule. Since we alluded to it before Atlanta drowned them like a bag of unwanted kittens, you knew this already. But that won’t stop the Chargers from making the playoffs. You can see them winning two of their next three – at Kansas City, at the free-falling New Orleans Saints or at home to Denver – before their bye. After that, it’s the Browns, Chiefs again and the Buccaneers – all winnable games. Confidence is a wonderful thing (apparently). Don’t write them off just yet.
Jets and Dolphins are playing for third in the AFC East. Miami appears to have a bright future with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. But the days are numbered for head coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez in New York.
It might be sooner than we think as cornerback Darrelle Revis’s injury is really going to open a door so wide that even heavyweight coordinator Tony Sparano and Ryan could get through it at the same time.
With Buffalo getting it together and New England losing two games by a combined three points to arguably the best two defences in the NFL, the Jets and Dolphins are also-rans in the AFC (L)East.
Schiano makes me schizo’. Should Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano order his team to rush an opposing quarterback who would dare ‘take a knee’ in the victory formation? Hell, yeah! (But just try and pull that one on me). And Greg, don’t be surprised if the next time you try it – and there should be plenty of opportunities now that defensive end Adrian Clayborn is injured – the opposing quarterback goes all Dan Marino, fakes to spike the ball or fakes the kneel-down and then proceeds to lob a touchdown pass. Oh, how we’d laugh.
Cincinnati Bengals are on to something. Their young group of receivers are electric. Something very special will happen if they progress as expected. But that defence has more leaks than a coalition government. It is going to catch up with them when they face a team who play good defence. No, we’re not looking at you, Jacksonville.
Saints alive… barely. The New Orleans Saints are a surprising 0-3. Pass protection is a major issue for the Saints, as much as the ineffective play of the linebackers. These are problems that are unlikely to get fixed. Bad enough that suspended head coach Sean Peyton can do little about it, but hated NFC South rivals Atlanta are 3-0, looking better by the week… and the Super Bowl will be played in New Orleans.
Now for something completely different. For John Arnette’s thoughts on Week 3, check out the excellent betdaqnfl.com, BETDAQ’s brand new dedicated NFL site.
John will offer his thoughts – and top tips – via video from across the pond in Jacksonville, Florida. There will also be the latest NFL news, too.
So to welcome John to the pleasure dome, this column’s musical interlude is dedicated to him. It harks back to the days when NFL was first broadcast on Channel 4 in the UK in the early 80s. The sport was bright, shiny and different – just like BETDAQ’s new NFL site.
Baltimore are a somewhat fortunate 2-1 after escaping with that 31-30 victory over the Patriots on Sunday night.
Their Super Bowl aspirations are still firmly alive, but with age beginning to be a bit of a problem along their offensive line and in the heart of their defence, their window of opportunity will soon be as open as those windows on a jet airliner (that’s not very open, for anyone named Mitt Romney).
The Ravens also have an incredibly tough schedule, which includes games against Dallas, Houston, two AFC North games against Pittsburgh, trips to San Diego and Washington, plus a closing trio of games against Denver, Super Bowl champion New York Giants and Cincinnati.
Sunday night’s defeat of New England was a measure of revenge from their AFC Championship defeat and it also gave them a one-game lead over the 1-2 Steelers, who inexplicably lost to Oakland (this is not a misprint).
It is never easy to break from routine and play four days after such an intense game. There is every risk that the Ravens will let down against a Cleveland team struggling to find their feet and still looking for their first victory.
The Browns have lost their last eight to the Ravens and have not won in Baltimore for five years. In fact, their have won just three times in their last 13 visits.
Running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden are among a slew of rookies who will face the vastly experience Ravens, who will hope to put this one away early.
The real danger here is not that 13-point BETDAQ underdog Cleveland will win, but whether Baltimore will ease off late on and give up garbage-time points, thus failing to cover the spread.
Baltimore have a history of letting down after big victories. Last season’s dreadful outing in Jacksonville, when they fell to a 12-7 defeat a week after throttling Houston springs to mind. That was followed by a loss in Seattle, having beaten Pittsburgh a week previously.
And this will be their fourth game in 18 days. It means they cannot be entirely trusted, especially since Cleveland have been more than competitive in their three outings against Philadelphia (L16-17), Cincinnati (L27-34) and Buffalo (L14-24).
Cleveland’s problems are largely at the receiver position. Greg Little has dropped more balls than a year of ninth-grade schoolboys and their chief threat, Mohammed Massaquoi has still to record a touchdown this season and injured his hamstring in Sunday’s loss to Buffalo.
Richardson is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry but they will have to establish the run and stick with it if they are to keep things close.
The Ravens really should not have too much trouble going up against a defence that ranks 25th overall and it is difficult to envisage anything other than victory for the Ravens.
The doubts linger but the spread is exactly where it should be. We are five of six with our Thursday night picks through the first three weeks. This game is a little more tricky to weigh up. Still, the Ravens look a Super Bowl outfit and the mark of a good team is how they punish the weaker teams, not how many times they beat similarly good opposition.
Legitimate contenders will roll over poor teams like the Browns.
Suggestions:
Back – Baltimore -13
Lay – Under 43.5 points in total
Twitter: @simonmilham
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