Sunday has arrived and what a Sunday it should be at Riviera, where leader Retief Goosen will look to fend off a star-studded pack of players. The veteran Goosen seemed to be losing his grip on the back nine yesterday, as bogies at 10, 12, 13, and 15 had him reeling. He responded like a champion though, netting back-to-back birdies on 16 and 17 and making par on 18 to close out his round of 2-under 69. Goosen hasn’t been in this position in quite awhile– it’s been six years since his last win– and it will be interesting to see how the 46-year old holds up today. (Like his chances? Back him at 5.4 in the market embedded below…)
While none of our three pre-tournament selections are in contention, we did have a nice day on Friday, losing just one bet and hitting on both Graham DeLaet and Charl Schwartzel at 2.62. After a day off yesterday (a forced day off, mind you– Friday’s round was finished on Saturday due to darkness, which meant the 3-ball markets couldn’t be posted before 3rd-round play began) we’re back at it with three selections today. They are as follows:
Morgan Hoffmann (4) vs. Paul Casey (2.5) vs. Keegan Bradley (2.24)
As a general rule, you want to avoid the short odds in the three-ball betting (at least that’s the way I feel). Golf is different from a sport like tennis in that literally any world-class golfer can beat any other world-class golfer on any given day, and I’m not sure the same can be said of tennis (probably due to the physical nature of the sport…). However, if you’re ever going to bite on the short odds in a bet like this, Bradley at 2.24 might be your ticket. Both Hoffmann and Casey had been struggling coming into this week– Hoffmann hasn’t finished in the top-50 in any event this year while Casey has missed two straight cuts– and Bradley is off to a solid start this season, making the cut in all 5 of his starts and shooting par or better in 19 of his last 23 competitive rounds. Plus, Bradley has a great history at Riviera, finishing in the top-20 in three of his four career appearances and losing in a playoff to Bill Haas in 2012. The odds may not be juicy enough for some, but I think I’ll jump in. Recommendation: Bradley at 2.24
Pat Perez (3.1) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (2.1) vs. Michael Putnam (3.5)
At just 22 years old, Hideki Matsuyama is already a bona-fide star in Japan who seems primed to make his mark on the world stage. He’s been rock-solid so far this week with two 70s and a 72 (par is 71 at Riviera), but I’m not sure his performance warrants him being such a prohibitive favorite in this threesome. Both Perez and Putnam have played very well in recent weeks, with Perez in particular garnering attention by finishing 4th at the AT&T last week and 26th in Phoenix. Perez has a good history at Riviera, making the cut in 6 of his last 8 starts and finishing as high as 8th, and he played as well as anyone in the field yesterday until stumbling with bogies on 17 and 18. At 3.1, I think he’s worth a bet. Recommendation: Perez at 3.1
Carlos Ortiz (4) vs. Sergio Garcia (2.2) vs. J.B. Holmes (2.62)
Carlos Ortiz is an impressive young player who is certainly capable of beating both Garcia and Holmes today. That being said, he doesn’t have much experience in this type of situation– competing with elite players in one of the PGA Tour’s crown jewel events– so I don’t feel very comfortable trusting him with my money, even at a fairly generous price. Garcia is the favorite here and that’s understandable given his stellar performance this week and Holmes’ (somewhat undeserved) reputation for backsliding on Sunday, but the odds are a little short for my liking and we all know that Sergio’s putting comes and goes (and that’s being generous, I think). Holmes lost the Farmers Insurance Open in a playoff two weeks ago, he finished 10th at Pebble last week, and he’s sitting three shots behind a man who hasn’t won in six years. Not only do I think Holmes is a good bet to win his threesome, I’d take a hard look at him at 9/1 to win the whole thing. Recommendation: Holmes at 2.62
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