Sunday is always a good day for tennis fans and today is certainly no exception, as we’ve reached the finals in France, Florida, and Brazil and should be in for some exciting action. The women’s event in Dubai wrapped up yesterday in just the fashion we hoped it would, with Simona Halep winning in straight sets. Ms. Halep made us some money this week but we haven’t done as well with the men… let’s see of we can remedy that today:
ATP Open 13
Gael Monfils (1.58) vs. Gilles Simon (2.66)
It’s an all-French final in Marseille and the crowd is sure to be behind local hero Gael Monfils as he seeks his 6th career singles title. Monfils has played some beautiful tennis this week, easily dispatching Alexander Zverev, Andrey Kuznetsov, Simone Bolelli, and Roberto Bautista Agut. He has yet to lose a set in this tournament, while Simon had some difficulty with Borna Coric in the second round and with Sergiy Stakhovsky yesterday. So the consensus seems to be that Monfils is in better form, though Simon looked plenty sharp in the final two sets against Stakhovsky on Saturday. There’s some legitimate reasons to like the underdog here– Monfils is a wretched 5-16 in ATP tournament finals and he’s only beaten Simon once in five opportunities. However, three of his five tournament wins have come in France, his lone win over Simon came in France, and he should have the full support of an enthusiastic crowd today. With some players, that may not matter. With an emotional guy like Monfils, I think it does. Recommendation: Monfils at 1.58
ATP Delray Beach Open
Ivo Karlovic (1.58) vs. Donald Young (2.48)
Could it finally be time for Donald Young? The man who was once thought to be the next big thing in American tennis has had a fairly disappointing career, as inconsistency and immaturity have consistently derailed him. He seems to realize as much, saying yesterday “There have been things holding me back… consistency, the mental part, and putting together back-to-back matches.” This will be his first career ATP final and he faces a very beatable opponent in 35-year old Ivo Karlovic, a fading veteran who hasn’t won a title since 2013. Karlovic’s play this week has been a surprise, especially after he suffered an ugly loss to unheralded Austin Krajicek ten days ago. He’s still relying on that big serve– he hasn’t yet been broken in this tournament– but he’s not as spry as he once was and he struggles to win points that don’t end quickly. Young should have the advantage in every area but the serve, and I have a feeling he’s finally going to break through today. Recommendation: Young at 2.48
ATP Rio Open
Fabio Fognini (3.95) vs. David Ferrer (1.24)
The odds are lopsided here for a reason: Ferrer has never lost to Fognini, losing only two sets over the course of their seven matches. He’s also played some quality tennis this year, winning the Qatar tournament and stringing together a few wins in the Australian Open, while Fognini was struggling mightily heading into this week. So Ferrer is the superior player, and that’s all there is to it… right?? Well, Mr. Fognini did his best to complicate things for bettors by pulling a stunner over Rafa Nadal yesterday, halting Nadal’s 52-match winning streak on clay. If he can beat Nadal, can he beat Ferrer? Certainly. Am I willing to bet on that happening? Not a chance. Recommendation: Ferrer at 1.24
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