CHARLES SCHWAB: Though it’s been called different things over the years as soulless financial institutions have continued to swap naming rights, this is a tournament with as much history and tradition as any regular stop on Tour, and for decades the “official” name, whatever it happens to be in any given year, has been discarded by players and serious fans alike. This is Colonial. Hogan’s Alley.
The venue, of course, is Colonial Country Club, a classic John Bredemus design dating back to the 1930s which has played host to this tournament since its inception in 1946. It’s a straightforward test that prioritizes accuracy over distance, with tight doglegs, problematic Bermuda rough, and water that comes into play on several holes. An extensive renovation by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner in 2023 has given the course some serious teeth while maintaining its classic feel and design integrity, and it now stands up quite well to the modern game, with the last three winning scores being 9-under (Grillo, ’23), 14-under (Riley, ’24), and 12-under (Griffin, ’25). A par-70 that tips out at nearly 7,300 yards, there aren’t many easy birdies at Colonial, and with only two par-5s and firm and fast conditions the norm, players will really have to earn it with tee to green excellence this week.
Ludvig Aberg heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 9.4, a frightfully short price for a guy who, for all his talent, has only two career PGA Tour victories and is beginning to develop a distressing habit of fading from contention late. Aberg is joined at the top of the market by the likes of Russell Henley (21.0), Justin Thomas (21.0), and (gasp!) Rickie Fowler (28.0), all of whom are priced a bit shorter than I’m comfortable with. Aside from Sam Burns’ victory in 2022, we haven’t seen a winner here that wasn’t trading at 70.0 or longer to begin the week since 2018, so this is definitely a course that gives everyone a chance. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
JJ Spaun (32.0)- Spaun took a huge step forward in his career in 2025, establishing himself as one of the top players on Tour after years of treading water in relative obscurity, and he’s caught fire again over the last three months, finding the top-25 in 5 of his past 8 starts, a span that includes a victory in the Valero Texas Open and a T5 at the Truist earlier this month. He’s now worked his way up to 9th in the world rankings, and his precision iron play makes him a great fit at a place like Colonial, as we saw last year with his 6th-place showing here. Putting is always the question with Spaun, but he’s been rolling it much better these last few weeks than he was earlier in the season, and he’s a clutch player, ranking 12th on Tour in final round scoring average, so if he gets a sniff of the lead on Sunday you have to like his chances. He’s clearly one of the favorites this week and his price is a bit more digestible than some others.
Max Greyserman (50.0)- Though he’s yet to find the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, Greyserman is an ascending player who has been in good form lately, with his most recent results being a T14 at the PGA Championship and a T9 at last week’s CJ Cup. A terrific iron player who generally does his best work on difficult, demanding layouts, he has the right kind of skillset to succeed at Colonial, and he found the top-25 in this event last year after missing the cut on debut in 2024. Something tells me bigger and better things may be in store for him this weekend… he’s a good value at a price like 50.0.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju (95.0)- As mentioned, this has been a great event for players to make a name for themselves in recent years, with 6 of the last 7 champions starting the week with odds similar to what Yellamajaru is saddled with here. This guy has impressed me all season and his game really doesn’t have a weakness statistically, as he ranks in the top-50 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, on approach, and putting. He’s also 14th in proximity, meaning he’s an excellent iron player, a skill that he’ll need to put to good use at Colonial. Though he’s making his tournament debut here and has therefore yet to play Colonial in competition, he’s done well at similar venues, finishing 5th at The Players and 6th at the Houston Open, so there’s no reason to think he can’t succeed this week. We’ve seen debutantes win this tournament before and Yellamajaru plays with an aggressive, fearless style. I think he’s got a better chance than his price would indicate.
