The PGA Tour’s Florida swing kicks off at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens this week, where eleven of the world’s top 20 players– including world No. 1 Rory McIlroy– are scheduled to compete. All eyes will be on McIlroy, who will be making his 2015 PGA Tour debut at a place where he has experienced plenty of success, winning in 2012 and losing in a playoff to Russell Henley last year. McIlroy won the Dubai Desert Classic in his last start, and he’s been on a tear over the past several months the likes of which the golf world hasn’t seen since Tiger Woods in 2000-01.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that he’s a prohibitive favorite this week, though it should be mentioned that at the time of this typing his odds were slightly longer at BETDAQ (5.3) than at any other high-profile sportsbook/exchange in the world (his most common price is 4.5). So if you want to back Rory and you care about getting the best price, the Daq is your only choice!
As for me, I think I’ll look elsewhere. It’s not that I don’t believe in McIlroy– he’s certainly the best player in the world– it’s just that the short odds/strong field combination has me a bit skittish. Here are a few players whose odds I feel a bit more comfortable with, as well as a couple of recommendations for the Round 1 three-balls:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Rose (27)- Rose has reached the point in his career where he picks and chooses his events very carefully, avoiding the week-to-week grind that defines the life of so many professional golfers. When he does play, though, he nearly always pops up somewhere near the top of the leaderboard, with the most recent examples being his back-to-back top-15 finishes in Abu Dhabi and Qatar last month. He’s got a great record at this event, finishing 4th in his last appearance (2013) and notching four other top-15 finishes, so he’s obviously very comfortable at PGA National. A great player at a good price, Rose is worth a bet this week.
Billy Horschel (66)- The man they call Billy Ho has been on quite a run over the past year, rising from relative obscurity to win the FedEx Cup and cement his status among the world’s best. Bettors still haven’t fully embraced him, though, as evidenced by his puzzlingly long pre-tounament odds this week. I mean, it’s not like Horschel has been struggling– he’s made the cut in 7 of his past 8 events and is a combined 45-under par in his last 18 competitive rounds. He did miss the cut in this tournament last year, but he’s a native Floridian who grew up on Bermuda-covered courses just like PGA National, and he’s undoubtedly played dozens– if not hundreds– of rounds at the Champion Course. He’s a definite contender this week.
Fredrik Jacobson (142)– In terms of value, this is my very favorite bet on the board. Here’s a guy being offered at ridiculously long odds that is playing the best golf of his career, and he’ll be at a course this week that has been very good to him over the years. Jacobson has a sparkling record at the Honda, finishing 12th last year, 25th in 2013, 16th in 2012, 29th in 2011, 6th in 2010, and 5th in 2009. Put this guy on PGA National and he’s an absolute cash register. Plus, he finished 7th out in Phoenix less than a month ago, shooting a 64 on Sunday, so championship-level golf is within his reach. The obvious thing working against this bet is the fact that Jacobson simply doesn’t win very much, doing so only once in the last 12 years (2011 Travelers). Still, when you take his history at this tournament and his recent form into consideration, it’s hard not to be tempted by the Swede with the magic putter.
1st Round 3-balls
Nick Watney (2.24) vs. Zach Johnson (2.38) vs. Ben Crane (4.3)
In three-ball betting, I feel it’s always best to pick a group where you can essentially eliminate one guy. Sure, Ben Crane has the ability to beat both Watney and Johnson on Thursday, but based on what we’ve seen out of Crane lately that seems highly unlikely. He’s missed three straight cuts and has only broken 70 twice in his last 12 competitive rounds, while both Watney and Johnson have been contending on a weekly basis. That’s especially true of Watney, whose February finishes include a 7th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 2nd at Pebble, and 22nd at Riviera last week. Johnson threw in a top-10 finish in Phoenix in his last start, but he hasn’t quite been on Watney’s level over these past few weeks. It’s also worth remembering that Johnson has never finished better than 30th at the Honda, and Watney bested that last year (23rd). Recommendation: Watney at 2.24
Rory McIlroy (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (3) vs. Brooks Koepka (4)
The week’s marquee group features the best player in the world and another guy who’s frequently talked about as possibly having more “natural” talent than anyone in the world. And then there’s Brooks Koepka, the forgotten man who comes with long odds. Well, let me tell you something about Mr. Koepka: he may be closer to McIlroy’s level than anyone realizes. Koepka is a 24-year old who strikes you as the type of guy that just hasn’t yet figured out how to play bad. On one end of the spectrum sit the type of mental demons that have crippled players like Ian Baker-Finch, Seve Ballesteros, and Tiger Woods, and on the other side of the spectrum there’s Brooks Koepka. He’s played in exactly four PGA Tour event this season, winning once (Phoenix), and finishing 4th, 8th, and 41st in the other three. It’s Rory-esque, to be sure. Do I think Koepka is a better player than McIlroy, or even Dustin Johnson, at this point? No, I do not. However, if you’re telling me I can back Brooks Koepka at 3/1 and all he has to do is beat two other players in an 18-hole round of golf, I’m taking that every single time, regardless of whether he’s playing McIlroy, vintage Tiger Woods, or the ghost of Bobby Jones. The kid can really play. If you don’t know it already, you will soon. Recommendation: Koepka at 4
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