HOUSTON OPEN: The Houston Open has been a fixture on the PGA Tour’s schedule since the mid-20th century, with Byron Nelson winning the first staging of the event back in 1946, when it was held at River Oaks Country Club. The following year the tournament was moved to Memorial Park Golf Course, a municipal course just outside downtown Houston, and the legendary South African Bobby Locke cruised to a 5-shot victory.
This week the Houston Open returns to Memorial Park for the first time in 57 years, and in another nod to tradition, albeit more recent tradition, it’s also once again being held the week before the Masters due to all the scheduling upheaval. Moreover, a limited number of spectators will be allowed on premises this week, making this the first Tour event on U.S. soil to allow spectators since the onset of pandemic. Throw in beautiful, mid-70s weather in Houston throughout the week, and we have all the makings of a 4-day celebration of golf, sport, and life. Sign me up.
Originally built in 1936 atop a WW1-era U.S. Army training base, the course was designed by John Bredemus and opened to instant acclaim, gaining widespread recognition as the best public-access course in East Texas. It was renovated in 1995 but retained much of its old-school charm (as can be personally attested to by your author, who has played it several times), and yet it wasn’t fit to host a modern-day professional event until last year’s massive renovation/redesign that was headed by Tom Doak, with significant input from Brooks Koepka. This new-look Memorial Park now measures some 7,430 yards from the tips and features five par-5s and five par-3s, an oddity it shares with Sherwood CC, host of the recent ZOZO Championship. It’s tee-to-green Bermuda grass, as you would expect in Texas, and the large, undulating greens are expected to be firm and fast this week.
Perhaps on account of the odd rhythm of the schedule in this Year of COVID, the field this week is stronger than you would normally see the week before a major, as many players apparently feel like four days of tournament golf, and not additional practice and/or rest, is the best preparation for Augusta National. Dustin Johnson heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 8.9, which feels awfully short for a guy who will be teeing it up for the first time since the U.S. Open in September. He’s joined atop the market by the likes of Tyrrell Hatton (19.5), Hideki Matsuyama (22.0), Tony Finau (22.0), and Brooks Koepka (25.0), and the field is littered with fan favorites like Jason Day (45.0), Adam Scott (47.0), Jordan Spieth (50.0), Sergio Garcia (44.0), and Phil Mickelson (110.0). For the 2,000 spectators lucky enough to have scored a ticket, this will feel like VIP access to some of the biggest names in the sport.
Handicapping a tournament when no one has seen the course in competition is always tricky, to say the least, and for that reason it may be best to look to some of the longer-odds guys this week. Anyone who is in good form and has a nice track record on Bermuda has a fighting chance. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tony Finau (22.0)- A fixture on the first page of leaderboards over the past couple of years, Finau’s combination of length off the tee and soft hands around the greens makes him a threat at courses that combine wide fairways/landing areas and firm, severe green complexes, which is what I think we’re going to see from Memorial Park this week. There’s enough space for him to swing the driver a few times, and he should devour the five par-5s. He was diagnosed with COVID after his 8th-place showing at the U.S. Open in September and took a few weeks off, but he seemed fully recovered at the ZOZO Championship a couple of weeks ago, breaking 70 in all four rounds to post 17-under for the week and finish 11th. This feels like a good spot for Finau– he’s fresh, playing well, and the course should suit him. He makes a lot of sense at better than 20/1.
Corey Conners (46.0)- Conners is one of the more consistent players on Tour, logging ten top-25s in 22 starts last season. This is mostly due to his superb ball-striking– he ranked 13th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2019/20 and 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, meaning he essentially has no tee-to-green weakness. Putting can be a struggle at times, but he’s done some of his best work on Bermuda greens, despite hailing from Canada, and his only PGA Tour victory came at the 2019 Valero Texas Open on another Bermuda-covered course in the Lone Star state. Couple that with his recent form– top-20 finishes in 2 of his last 3 starts, including a T8 at the ZOZO Championship last time out– and he profiles as a legit contender this week and a nice value at a price like 46.0.
Sam Burns (102.0)- Like Finau, Burns hits it a mile, averaging 318 yards per drive last season, and he’s at his most dangerous on courses where he has room to swing the driver and really be aggressive off the tee. With its generous landing areas and considerable length, I expect Memorial Park to be such a course. Burns has been playing well lately, teeing it up four times since September and finishing 34th or better on three of those occasions, including a T7 at the Safeway Open, and the Louisiana native has always enjoyed his best results on Bermuda grass, so this profiles as a good spot for him. Though he’s yet to notch his first PGA Tour victory, he’s still only 24, and he’s one of those young, fearless birdie-machines, ranking 12th on Tour with 4.93 birdies per round, so that maiden victory surely isn’t far off. Maybe it’ll be this week– at better than 100/1, I’m willing to take my chances.
